Late Cenozoic stress states around the Bolu Basin along the North Anatolian Fault, NW Turkey

This study defines the Late Cenozoic stress regimes acting around the Bolu Basin along the North Anatolian Fault in northwestern Turkey. The inferred regional stress regime, obtained from the inversion of measured fault-slip vectors as well as focal mechanism solutions, is significant and induces the right-lateral displacement of the North Anatolian Fault. The field observations have also revealed extensional structures in and around the Bolu Basin. These extensional structures can be interpreted as either a local effect of the regional transtensional stress regime or as the result of the interaction of the fault geometries of the dextral Duzce Fault and the southern escarpment of the North Anatolian Fault, bordering the Bolu Basin in the north and in the south, respectively.The inversion of slip vectors measured on fault planes indicates that a strike-slip stress regime with consistent NW- and NE-trending σ_Hmax(σ₁) and σ_Hmin(σ₃) axes is dominant. Stress ratio (R) values provided by inversion of slip vectors measured on both major and minor faults and field observations show significant variations of principal stress magnitudes within the strike-slip stress regime resulting in older transpression to younger transtension. These two stress states, producing dextral displacement along NAF, are coaxial with a consistent NE-trending σ₃ axis. The earthquake focal mechanism inversions confirm that the transtensional stress regime has continued into recent times, having identical horizontal stress axis directions, characterized by NW and NE-trending σ₁ and σ₃ axes, respectively. A locally consistent NE-trending extensional, normal faulting regime is also seen in the Bolu Basin. The stress-tensor change within the strike-slip stress regime can be explained by variations in horizontal stress magnitudes that probably occurred in Quaternary times as a result of the westward extrusion of the Anatolian block.     

Assessment of climate change effects in Aegean river basins: the case of Gediz and Buyuk Menderes Basins

IPCC Fourth Assessment Report (AR4) discloses that the global climate system is undoubtedly warming. Observations have shown that many natural systems, including hydrologic systems and water resources, are being affected by regional climate changes, particularly temperature increases. Eventually, these effects will have to be considered in water resources planning and management. Accordingly, need is indicated to evaluate the impact of expected climate change on hydrology and water resources at regional and local levels. The presented paper summarizes the results of the sub-project studies under the United Nations Development Program-Global Environment Facility (UNDP-GEF) Project. The studies cover the generation of climate change scenarios, modeling of basin hydrology, and testing the sensitivity of runoff to changes in precipitation and temperature. Simulation results of the water budget model have shown that nearly 20% of the surface waters in the studied basins will be reduced by the year of 2030. By the years 2050 and 2100, this percentage will increase up to 35% and more than 50%, respectively. The decreasing surface water potential of the basins will cause serious water stress problems among water users, mainly being agricultural, domestic and industrial water users.