A seismic source zone model for the seismic hazard assessment of the Italian territory

We designed a new seismic source model for Italy to be used as an input for country-wide probabilistic seismic hazard assessment (PSHA) in the frame of the compilation of a new national reference map.

We started off by reviewing existing models available for Italy and for other European countries, then discussed the main open issues in the current practice of seismogenic zoning.

The new model, termed ZS9, is largely based on data collected in the past 10 years, including historical earthquakes and instrumental seismicity, active faults and their seismogenic potential, and seismotectonic evidence from recent earthquakes. This information allowed us to propose new interpretations for poorly understood areas where the new data are in conflict with assumptions made in designing the previous and widely used model ZS4.

ZS9 is made out of 36 zones where earthquakes with M_w > = 5 are expected. It also assumes that earthquakes with M_w up to 5 may occur anywhere outside the seismogenic zones, although the associated probability is rather low. Special care was taken to ensure that each zone sampled a large enough number of earthquakes so that we could compute reliable earthquake production rates.

Although it was drawn following criteria that are standard practice in PSHA, ZS9 is also innovative in that every zone is characterised also by its mean seismogenic depth (the depth of the crustal volume that will presumably release future earthquakes) and predominant focal mechanism (their most likely rupture mechanism). These properties were determined using instrumental data, and only in a limited number of cases we resorted to geologic constraints and expert judgment to cope with lack of data or conflicting indications. These attributes allow ZS9 to be used with more accurate regionalized depth-dependent attenuation relations, and are ultimately expected to increase significantly the reliability of seismic hazard estimates.     

Dissolution/precipitation kinetics of boehmite and gibbsite: Application of a pH-relaxation technique to study near-equilibrium rates

The dissolution and precipitation rates of boehmite, AlOOH, at 100.3 °C and limited precipitation kinetics of gibbsite, Al(OH)₃, at 50.0 °C were measured in neutral to basic solutions at 0.1 molal ionic strength (NaCl + NaOH + NaAl(OH)₄) near-equilibrium using a pH-jump technique with a hydrogen-electrode concentration cell. This approach allowed relatively rapid reactions to be studied from under- and over-saturation by continuous in situ pH monitoring after addition of basic or acidic titrant, respectively, to a pre-equilibrated, well-stirred suspension of the solid powder. The magnitude of each perturbation was kept small to maintain near-equilibrium conditions. For the case of boehmite, multiple pH-jumps at different starting pHs from over- and under-saturated solutions gave the same observed, first order rate constant consistent with the simple or elementary reaction: .

This relaxation technique allowed us to apply a steady-state approximation to the change in aluminum concentration within the overall principle of detailed balancing and gave a resulting mean rate constant, (2.2 ± 0.3) × 10⁻⁵ kg m⁻² s⁻¹, corresponding to a 1σ uncertainty of 15%, in good agreement with those obtained from the traditional approach of considering the rate of reaction as a function of saturation index. Using the more traditional treatment, all dissolution and precipitation data for boehmite at 100.3 °C were found to follow closely the simple rate expression:

R_net,boehmite=10^-5.485{m_OH^-}{1-exp(ΔG_r/RT)}, with R_net in units of mol m⁻² s⁻¹. This is consistent with Transition State Theory for a reversible elementary reaction that is first order in OH⁻ concentration involving a single critical activated complex. The relationship applies over the experimental ΔG_r range of 0.4–5.5 kJ mol⁻¹ for precipitation and −0.1 to −1.9 kJ mol⁻¹ for dissolution, and the pH_m ≡ −log(mH⁺) range of 6–9.6. The gibbsite precipitation data at 50 °C could also be treated adequately with the same model:R_net,gibbsite=10^-5.86{m_OH^-}{1-exp(ΔG_r/RT)}, over a more limited experimental range of ΔG_r (0.7–3.7 kJ mol⁻¹) and pH_m (8.2–9.7).     

A case study of mollusc and polychaete soft-bottom assemblages submitted to sedimentary instability in the Mediterranean Sea

In the Strait of Messina (Sicily, Central Mediterranean Sea) strong tidal currents, very irregular hydrological regime and related solid load, and local seismic activity cause sediment instability; this area represents therefore a case‐study of a naturally disturbed soft‐bottom environment. In this paper, mollusc and polychaete assemblages of the northern part of the Strait were described. Composition, community structure, eco‐ethological features, trophic guilds and sediment‐type relationships were studied in 64 stations sampled located between 3.5 and 50 m depth in October 1992 by means of a Van Veen grab. A total of 131 species (65 molluscs and 66 polychaetes) were identified. A dense population of the tubicolous polychaete Ditrupa arietina was recognized, together with the occurrence of other species tied to a high sedimentation rate, such as Corbula gibba and Tellina distorta, as well as widespread, mud‐tolerant species (e.g.Chone spp., Hyalinoecia tubicola). Diversity (H′) showed a peak at intermediate depths (10/20 m) and a clear decrease beyond this depth, corresponding to the Ditrupa core population. Multivariate comparison between sediment features and community composition throughout the bathymetric gradient showed a narrow ecocline between two environments subjected to opposite hydrodynamic constraints. In the shallower zone, a wide typology of trophic‐ethological guilds was related to community patchiness, in contrast to a greater functional uniformity of the deeper assemblage, dominated by sessile, semi‐infaunal suspension feeders. A possible role played by a phase of increased rainfall to increase bottom instability, locally emphasized by a previous human activity, is also discussed.     

Fluid Geochemistry as Indicator of Tectonically-Related,Deep Water Circulations in the Sardinian Rift-Campidano Graben (Italy): New Insights from Environmental Isotopes

The EC funded Geochemical Seismic Zonation program (EEC GSZ Project 1996–1998) chose Sardinia as a low-seismicity site, in which the relationships between fluid geochemistry and seismo-tectonics had to be investigated and results compared with outcomes from other selected high-seismicity sites. A first article, examining the role of fault segmentation and seismic quiescence on the geochemical composition of groundwaters and gases, has already been presented (Angelone et al. 2005). This article deals with environmental isotopes which, together with selected hydrochemical data, give hints on tectonically-related fluid circulations. Four water-dominated hydrothermal systems were considered, all located along regional fault systems and discharging groundwaters belonging to the Na–HCO₃ and Na–Cl facies. In the considered systems, groundwater circulation takes place, principally, in the Palaeozoic Crystalline Basement (PCB), with the exception of the Logudoro system, where hydrological circuits develop in the Mesozoic Carbonate Platform (MCP). The high CO₂ contents, the non-attainment of fluid-rock equilibrium and the large lithological variability prevent the construction of a unique hydrogeological–geochemical conceptual model. In this case, stable isotopes provide a useful tool to describe the origin of fluids and their subterranean movements. Stable isotopes of water, integrated with hydrochemical data, indicate that fluids are derived from three main end members. The dominant component is a relatively recent local meteoric water; the second one is marine water; and the third one is a fossil freshwater, depleted in heavy isotopes with respect to modern rains. The latter end member entered the aquifer system in the past, when climatic conditions were greatly different from today. At least two circulation systems can be recognised, namely a shallow cold system and a deep hydrothermal system, as well as two distinct hydrological processes: (1) gravity-controlled descent of cold water towards greater depths and (2) convection linked to a thermal gradient, causing deep fluids to rise up from the hydrothermal reservoir towards the surface. The highly variable δ¹³C_TDIC values suggest the presence of two distinct CO₂ sources, namely, a biogenic one and a thermogenic one. The relation between the isotopic compositions of CO₂ and He indicates an increased mantle signature in uprising CO₂-rich fluids.     

Mt. Melbourne volcano,antarctica: Evidence of seismicity related to volcanic activity

Characterization of the microseismic activity (M _L <2.0) has been performed at Mt. Melbourne since 1990. We recorded a group of low frequency events with common morphological characteristics, i.e., an emerging onset, an unclear second phase and a sharply dropping coda. Spectral analysis of events recorded at more than one station indicates that the seismogram characteristics and spectral content are largely due to source effects. A polarization filter applied to a set of three component data revealed a first phase made up ofP waves followed (after about 0.9–1.4 sec.) by a second phase probably composed ofSH-type waves. Particle motion analysis detected a seismic ray angle direction mainly between N70°E and N110°E and apparent angle of incidence between 35° and 48° for the first phase. The studied seismicity was localized in an area on the eastern slope of Mt. Melbourne Volcano which presents a surface temperature anomaly (Mazzarini andSalvini, 1994). We formulate two hypotheses for the type of earthquakes recorded: 1) long-period events involving active presence of magmatic fluids in the source processes; 2) or the result of fracturing processes (shear?) in a medium characterized by transition between brittle and plastic behaviors. In the latter hypothesis the superficial thermal anomaly may be a symptom of this behavior at depth and is confirmed by the lown values observed for the exponential fit in the codaQ analysis.     

Evidence of recent climatic anomalies at Trieste (Italy)

A recent noticeable climatic anomaly in some meteomarine quantities is analysed based on observations during the period March 1, 1971-February 28, 1993 taken in Trieste (Italy). Marked deviations from the normal values of the coupled quantities atmospheric pressure-solar irradiance and atmospheric pressure-sea level elevation, during the last 22 years, are analysed. The procedures used bring out a clear and persistent configuration of high pressure, high irradiance and low sea level from 1989 on, previously unmatched.     

The influence of the coast on the dynamics of upwelling fronts: Part II. Numerical simulations

We investigated the dynamics of upwelling fronts near a coast. This work was first motivated by laboratory experiments [Bouruet-Aubertot, Linden, Dyn. Atmos. Oceans, 2002] in which the front is produced by the adjustment of a buoyant fluid initially confined within a bottomless cylinder. It was shown that cyclonic eddies consisting of coastal waters are enhanced when the front is unstable near the coast (the outer vertical boundary). The purpose of this paper is to provide further insights into this process. We reproduced the experimental configuration using a three-dimensional model of the primitive equations. We first show that for coastal fronts more potential energy, in terms of the maximum available potential energy, is released than for open-ocean fronts. Therefore, waves of larger amplitude are generated during the adjustment and the mean flow that establishes has a higher kinetic energy in the former case. Then as baroclinic instability starts and wave crests reach the boundary, cyclonic eddies are enhanced as in the laboratory experiments and in a similar way. However, in contrast to the laboratory experiments, offshore advection of cyclonic eddies can occur in two stages, depending on the spatial organization of the baroclinic wave. When the baroclinic wave consists of the sum of different modes and is thus highly asymmetric, the offshore advection of cyclonic eddies occurs just after their enhancement at the boundary, as in the laboratory experiments. By contrast, when a single-mode baroclinic wave develops, neighboring cyclonic eddies first merge before being advected offshore. Very different behavior is observed for open-ocean fronts. First a mixed baroclinic–barotropic instability grows. Then the eddies transfer their energy to the mean flow and the barotropic and baroclinic instabilities start again. An excellent agreement is obtained with the main result obtained in the laboratory experiments: the ratio between growth rates of surface cyclonic and anticyclonic vorticity increases as the instability develops nearer to the coast.     

Modeling of Rayleigh waves dispersion in the Sannio region (Southern Italy) from seismic active refraction data

Short period surface waves, recorded during a seismic refractionsurvey in the Sannio region (Southern Italy), have been modeled to infera shallow velocity model for the area. Based on the decrease of resolutionwith depth, due to the bias on group velocity estimates arising frominterference of the Rayleigh waves with higher modes, we carried out aprocedure of fitting, with synthetic seismograms, of selected filtered traceswith a gaussian filter, having a width at half height equal to 1 Hz and acentral frequency lying in the range [1,4] Hz. We estimated the likelihoodbetween synthetic and observed seismograms by measuring their semblance.In this way we were able to infer a more refined local velocity modelcharacterized by a high Vp and Vs vertical gradient in the sedimentarycover. Two ad hoc resolution studies, based on group velocity andamplitude data respectively, indicate that the local velocity model is a goodvelocity model also for the entire studied area. The increase in the numberof available data when using amplitude information allows us to make amore selective choice in the model parameter space (Vp and Vs of eachlayer) and to solve for the Vp/Vs ratio. The inferred Vp velocity in thehalf-space is equal to 2.8 km/s. This value is in excellent agreement withthat inferred by other authors (3 km/s) by modeling P-wave travel timevs. distance. The best-fit model furnish low Vp/Vs for the sedimentarycover so indicating a high degree of the sediment's compaction in thestudied area. The inferred shallow high-velocity gradient indicates thatthe shallow sedimentary layer in the area could trap and focus the energytraveling into it.