俄罗斯贝加尔湖-日本石卷地学断面西段地质-地球物理基本特征

对于贝加尔湖-石卷地学断面(BAMSIP)的西段俄罗斯贝加尔湖-中国满洲里断面城内的地质构造背景、地震剖面波类型和基本特征等研究发现：(1)断面域中贝加尔裂谷带地震波速度结构存在异常地幔带；结晶地壳物质成分基性程度较高；基底顶面和Moho界面未观察到明显的镜象关系；(2)西伯利亚南部的复杂相故基底由古生代和前寒武纪岩层所组构；区域构造由古褶皱系、中生代沉积盆地、裂谷带构成。     

Sequence stratigraphic analysis of Eocene Rock Strata,Offshore Indus,southwest Pakistan

In this study, seismic data from two wells (Pak G2-1 and Indus Marine-1C) and age diagnostic larger benthic foraminifera (LBF) within drill cuttings has been used for the first time to identify depositional sequences within the carbonates in the Offshore Indus Basin, Pakistan. The Offshore Indus is tectonically categorized as a passive continental margin where carbonates occur as shelf carbonates in the near offshore and on volcanic seamounts in deeper waters. Seismic data analysis has indicated the presence of minor faults and carbonate buildups above the igneous basement in the south. Patterns of the seismic reflections enabled definition of three seismic facies units identified as: Unit 1 basement, represented by chaotic, moderate amplitude reflection configuration; while parallel bedding and the drape of overlying strata is typical character of Unit 2, carbonate mound facies. The younger Miocene channels represent Unit 3. The diagnosis of Alveolina vredenburgi/cucumiformis biozone confirmed the Ilerdian (55–52 Ma) stage constituting a second order cycle of deposition for the Eocene carbonates (identified as Unit 2). The carbonate succession has been mainly attributed to an early highstand system tract (HST). The environmental conditions remained favorable leading to the development of keep-up carbonates similar to pinnacle buildups as a result of aggradation during late transgressive system tract and an early HST. The carbonate sequence in the south (Pak G2-1) is thicker and fossiliferous representing inner to middle shelf depths based on fauna compared to the Indus Marine-1C in the north, which is devoid of fossils. Three biozones (SBZ 5, SBZ 6 and SBZ 8) were identified based on the occurrence of LBF. The base of the SBZ 5 zone marks the larger foraminifera turnover and the Paleocene–Eocene (P–E) boundary. The LBF encountered in this study coincides with earlier findings for the P–E boundary. Our findings indicate that the entire Ilerdian stage ranges from 55.5 to 52 Ma that was the episode of warmer water conditions on the carbonate shelves leading to the diversification of K-strategist larger foraminifera. The larger foraminiferal assemblage encountered in this study confirms the findings. The possible indication of stratigraphic-combination traps, revealed as reflection terminations, make carbonate mounds in the south a potential exploration target.     

Long-range precipitation forecasts using paleoclimate reconstructions in the western United States

Long-range precipitation forecasts are useful when managing water supplies.Oceanicatmospheric oscillations have been shown to influence precipitation.Due to a longer cycle of some of the oscillations,a short instrumental record is a limitation in using them for long-range precipitation forecasts.The influence of oscillations over precipitation is observable within paleoclimate reconstructions;however,there have been no attempts to utilize these reconstructions in precipitation forecasting.A data-driven model,KStar,is used for obtaining long-range precipitation forecasts by extending the period of record through the use of reconstructions of oscillations.KStar is a nearest neighbor algorithm with an entropy-based distance function.Oceanic-atmospheric oscillation reconstructions include the El Nino-Southern Oscillation(ENSO),the Pacific Decadal Oscillation(PDO),the North Atlantic Oscillation(NAO),and the Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation(AMO).Precipitation is forecasted for 20 climate divisions in the western United States.A 10-year moving average is applied to aid in the identification of oscillation phases.A lead time approach is used to simulate a one-year forecast,with a 10-fold cross-validation technique to test the models.Reconstructions are used from 1658-1899,while the observed record is used from 1900-2007.The model is evaluated using mean absolute error(MAE),root mean squared error(RMSE),RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio(RSR),Pearson’s correlation coefficient(R),NashSutcliffe coefficient of efficiency(NSE),and linear error in probability space(LEPS) skill score(SK).The role of individual and coupled oscillations is evaluated by dropping oscillations in the model.The results indicate ’good’ precipitation estimates using the KStar model.This modeling technique is expected to be useful for long-term water resources planning and management.     

Comparative analysis of Lake Urmia and Lake Van water level time series

Recent decline in Lake Urmia water level makes it crucial to consider this issue more seriously. For this purpose, comparison of water level in Lake Urmia with Lake Van in Turkey, which is in relatively similar geographic and climate conditions, can be an effective approach. To follow this objective, trend analysis, regime shift, and coherency analyses are implemented. The results showed negative trend in Lake Urmia water level for the past 20 years, while in Lake Van, the trend is positive. Moreover, correlation of the lake level variations versus the basin rainfall during three common periods, identified by the regime shifts analysis, illustrated a decreasing trend in the correlation. These changes can be attributed to non-climatic factors such as different allocation disciplines in two lake’s catchments. Finally, the coherency analysis showed significant annual and inter-annual frequencies common between the two lake levels. Herein, the short-term period relations are associated with lags, while in long term, they act simultaneously.     

Prediction of riverine suspended sediment discharge using fuzzy logic algorithms, and some implications for estuarine settings

The ability of fuzzy logic algorithms to model relationships between stream flow and suspended sediment discharge was investigated using daily measurements of stream flow and suspended sediment discharge for the Escanaba River mouth station, situated on the shore of Lake Michigan and operated by the US Geological Survey. Three different configurations of inputs were applied, whereby the inputs were fuzzified into fuzzy subsets of variables by means of triangular membership functions. The relationships between inputs and suspended sediment discharge (output) were represented by a set of fuzzy rule expressed in IF–THEN format. The weighted average method served for defuzzification. The commonly used sediment rating curve was also applied to the data, and its performance compared with that of the three models by means of statistical analyses. For all three models, suspended sediment discharge predicted by the fuzzy logic algorithm was in satisfactory agreement with observations. Furthermore, the fuzzy logic algorithms performed better than the sediment rating curve, particularly at higher rates of suspended sediment discharge (in this study, more than 50  × 10⁶ g/day). Considered collectively, the use of fuzzy logic algorithms is suggested as a simple and effective approach for better prediction of suspended sediment discharge, also for estuaries.     

Nonlinear analysis of laterally loaded rigid piles in cohesive soil

This article presents a method for the nonlinear analysis of laterally loaded rigid piles in cohesive soil. The method considers the force and the moment equilibrium to derive the system equations for a rigid pile under a lateral eccentric load. The system equations are then solved using an iteration scheme to obtain the response of the pile. The method considers the nonlinear variation of the ultimate lateral soil resistance with depth and uses a new closed‐form expression proposed in this article to determine the lateral bearing factor. The method also considers the horizontal shear resistance at the pile base, and a bilinear relationship between the shear resistance and the displacement is used. For simplicity, the modulus of horizontal subgrade reaction is assumed to be constant with depth, which is applicable to piles in overconsolidated clay. The nonlinearity of the modulus of horizontal subgrade reaction with pile displacement at ground surface is also considered. The validity of the developed method is demonstrated by comparing its results with those of 3D finite element analysis. The applications of the developed method to analyze five field test piles also show good agreement between the predictions and the experimental results. The developed method offers an alternative approach for simple and effective analysis of laterally loaded rigid piles in cohesive soil. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Compressibility and collapse characteristics of arid saline sabkha soils

Arid saline soils are well-distributed over the globe, with a variety of nomenclature. Along the seaboard of the Arabian Gulf, these soils exist widely and are known as “sabkhas”. Despite the cemented and saline characteristics of the sabkha matrix, a recent investigation indicated that flooding the saline sabkha with distilled water in the conventional oedometer apparatus was incapable of producing a sudden reduction in volume and/or a significant collapse. This study proposes a modification to the conventional oedometer on undisturbed sabkha specimens to consolidating specimens under a constant head. Tests were, therefore, conducted on undisturbed sabkha specimens to assess their compressibility and collapse potential whereby percolation of water was commenced under two pressures to evaluate the role of sustained pressure on the collapse mechanisms.

Despite the low compressibility of sabkhas, results of these tests indicated that these arid, saline soils possess a high collapse potential attributable primarily to dissolution of sodium chlorides, leaching of calcium ions and soil grain adjustment. The collapse potential increases with an increase in the acting pressure at which percolation of water takes place. In contrast to other typical soils, the collapse of arid, saline soils is not instantaneous but requires sufficient volume of water to percolate in order to enhance the dissolution of the cementing agents.     

Five dimensional universe model with variable cosmological term Λ and a big bounce

We assume the four dimensional induced matter of the 5D Ricci flat bouncing cosmological solution contains a perfect fluid. The big bounce singularity of simple 5D cosmological model is studied with the cosmological term Λ=α ρ and Λ=β H ² where α and β are constants and ρ and H are respectively energy density and Hubble parameter. This big bounce singularity is found to be an event horizon at which the scale factor and mass density of the universe are finite, while the pressure is infinite.