Dynamic stochastic estimation of physical variables

A fundamental problem facing the physical sciences today is analysis of natural variations and mapping of spatiotemporal processes. Detailed maps describing the space/time distribution of groundwater contaminants, atmospheric pollutant deposition processes, rainfall intensity variables, external intermittency functions, etc. are tools whose importance in practical applications cannot be overestimated. Such maps are valuable inputs for numerous applications including, for example, solute transport, storm modeling, turbulent-nonturbulent flow characterization, weather prediction, and human exposure to hazardous substances. The approach considered here uses the spatiotemporal random field theory to study natural space/time variations and derive dynamic stochastic estimates of physical variables. The random field model is constructed in a space/time continuum that explicitly involves both spatial and temporal aspects and provides a rigorous representation of spatiotemporal variabilities and uncertainties. This has considerable advantages as regards analytical investigations of natural processes. The model is used to study natural space/time variations of springwater calcium ion data from the Dyle River catchment area, Belgium. This dataset is characterized by a spatially nonhomogeneous and temporally nonstationary variability that is quantified by random field parameters, such as orders of space/time continuity and random field increments. A rich class of covariance models is determined from the properties of the random field increments. The analysis leads to maps of continuity orders and covariances reflecting space/time calcium ion correlations and trends. Calcium ion estimates and the associated statistical errors are calculated at unmeasured locations/instants over the Dyle region using a space/time kriging algorithm. In practice, the interpretation of the results of the dynamic stochastic analysis should take into consideration the scale effects.     

Accumulation of elements in plants and soils in and around Mangampeta and Vemula barite mining areas, Cuddapah District, Andhra Pradesh, India

Different plant organs and their corresponding substrate samples were collected from Mangampeta and Vemula barite mining areas of Cuddapah District, Andhra Pradesh. The presence of Indigofera cordifolia exclusively developed on mine dumps of the Vemula barite area and its significant absence away from the mining area shows its indicator characteristics for barium from the geobotanical point of view. Multi-element analysis of these samples was carried out and thebiological absorption coefficient (BAC) was calculated. The BAC is the ratio of the concentration of an element in plant ash to that of its substrate. The results show the presence and/or absence of certain elements in plants and soils, which can be explained on the basis of biogeochemical cycling of elements, exclusion mechanisms, and bioavailability. Further, Tridax procumbens (Li), I. cordifolia (Ba), Cassia angustifolia (Sr), and Kirganelia reticulata (Co) are identified as accumulator plants without considering their substrate concentration. Based on BAC, C. angustifolia (Sr) and Tephrosia purpurea (Zn) are determined to be accumulator plants. Such plant species may be useful in mineral exploration, and reclamation and revegetation of adversely affected mining environments.     

Modulation of tropical ocean surface chlorophyll by the Madden–Julian Oscillation

The MJO modulation of sea surface chlorophyll-a (Chl) examined initially by Waliser et al. in Geophys Res Lett, (2005) is revisited with a significantly longer time-series of observations and a more systematic approach to characterizing the possible mechanisms underlying the MJO-Chl relationships. The MJO composite analysis of Chl and lead-lag correlations between Chl and other physical variables reveal regional variability of Chl and corresponding indicative temporal relationships among variables. Along the path of the MJO convection, wind speed—a proxy for oceanic vertical turbulent mixing and corresponding entrainment—is most strongly correlated with Chl when wind leads Chl by a few days. Composite Chl also displays MJO influences away from the path of the MJO convection. The role of wind speed in those regions is generally the same for Chl variability as that along the path of the MJO convection, although Ekman pumping also plays a role in generating Chl variability in limited regions. However, the wind forcing away from the MJO convection path is less coherent, rendering the temporal link relatively weak. Lastly, the potential for bio-physical feedbacks at the MJO time-scale is examined. The correlation analysis provides tantalizing evidence for local bio-feedbacks to the physical MJO system. Plausible hypothesis for Chl to amplify the MJO phase transition is presented though it cannot be affirmed in this study and will be examined and reported in a future modeling study.     

Stochastic Finite Fault Modeling of Subduction Zone Earthquakes in Northeastern India

In this article, a stochastic finite fault source model is calibrated to estimate ground motion in northeastern India for intermediate depth events originating in the Indo-Burmese tectonic domain. A total of 47 three-component accelerograms from eight events with magnitudes ranging from M _w 4.8–6.4 are used to estimate the input source and site parameters of the finite fault source model. Key seismic parameters such as stress drop (Δσ) and site amplification function are determined from the recorded strong motion data. The obtained stress drop of the eight recorded events lies in between 105 and 165 bars.     

Engineering source model for strong ground motion

A new engineering source model consistent with seismological concepts for simulating strong-motion accelerograms (SMAs) is presented in this paper. The source region is modeled as a horizontally layered elastic medium to cater for site dependency. The moment field acting on the rupture plane is decomposed into space and time functions, which is a novel concept. The spatial and temporal components are determined for six well-recorded earthquakes using the corresponding recorded SMA. The obtained spatial variations indicate that they can be modeled as an anisotropic random field. The temporal components of all the six events are transients, with typical frequency spectra. Based on these results, a simplified source model is proposed for the synthesis of SMA during strong earthquakes. The model is validated by simulating strong-motion acceleration time histories at stations deliberately kept out of the modeling exercise. It is found that the present model is efficient in simulating observed time histories. The proposed model is also illustrated by simulating an ensemble of acceleration time histories for the Kutch earthquake of 26th January 2001 using only the few known source parameters.     

Overview of the legal aspects of remote sensing

When remote sensing images became available from satellites, several countries began to voice their concerns about the legality of such observations of their territory by another country. These apprehensions were primarily prompted on account of the fact that remote sensing capability was available only with the highly-developed superpowers and it had economic and security-related implications. Over the years, these concerns were raised in international fora and the interpretation of various provisions of International Law and Multilateral Treaties on Space as applicable to remote sensing were extensively debated. In 1986, a broad consensus was reached at the United Nations on the principles related to activities of States in Remote Sensing of countries by satellites. These aimed at the growth of these activities in a manner that encouraged cooperation among states in the use of this technology and at the same time attempted to mitigate the concerns of many State regarding their sovereign rights. It had become evident with the passage of time that many of the apprehensions about remote sensing were becoming less relevant in the face of the potential benefits available to all countries due to rapid technological advancements. The current paper examines various aspects related to the development of the international legal framework for remote sensing activities from space and their applications.     

Modeling and synthesis of strong ground motion

Success of earthquake resistant design practices critically depends on how accurately the future ground motion can be determined at a desired site. But very limited recorded data are available about ground motion in India for engineers to rely upon. To identify the needs of engineers, under such circumstances, in estimating ground motion time histories, this article presents a detailed review of literature on modeling and synthesis of strong ground motion data. In particular, modeling of seismic sources and earth medium, analytical and empirical Green’s functions approaches for ground motion simulation, stochastic models for strong motion and ground motion relations are covered. These models can be used to generate realistic near-field and far-field ground motion in regions lacking strong motion data. Numerical examples are shown for illustration by taking Kutch earthquake-2001 as a case study.     

Long-Term Variability of Nutrients and Chlorophyll in the Chesapeake Bay: A Retrospective Analysis, 1985–2008

A retrospective analysis of freshwater discharge, riverine dissolved nutrient loads, dissolved nutrients, and chlorophyll in the Chesapeake Bay from 1985 to 2008 is presented. It is evident that each field displays an interannual variability averaged over the Bay. The N and P loads peaked in 1997 and have fluctuated with a decreasing trend since early 2004. Dissolved nutrient concentrations in the Bay appear to be largely controlled by riverine nutrient loads. The temporal variability of chlorophyll is positively correlated with nutrient loads and concentrations. Over the study period, N:P (DIN:DIP) molar ratios were consistently higher than the Redfield ratio (N:P?=?16:1) and strongly correlated with river discharge (R ²?=?0.68, p??16:1), and N is the limiting nutrient in summer and early autumn (N:P?4 from anoxic sediments. Long-term climate indices, such as El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), appear to exert only a moderate control over the riverine discharge to the Bay or over the ecosystem response in terms of chlorophyll in the Bay. While not all related mechanisms can be inferred from available data, this analysis should help in determining future data needs for monitoring water quality and human and climate influence on the health of the Bay.