Potential cauchy-poisson waves generated by submarine eruptions of kick 'em Jenny volcano

Kick 'em Jenny is the only known currently active submarine volcano in the Lesser Antilles. The volcano has erupted at least 10 times since first being discovered in 1939 and the summit has shoaled from a depth of 232 m in 1962 to its present-day depth of 150 m. Kick 'em Jenny is located in a province of explosive volcanism, has a known history of explosive eruptions and erupts magma of an explosive type. Future eruptions are likely to become increasingly more violent as the effect of the overlying water pressure becomes less. A preliminary study (Smith and Shepherd, 1993) suggests that Kick 'em Jenny is a prime candidate for tsunamigenic eruptions on a potentially hazardous scale, possibly affecting the whole of the eastern Caribbean region.The classic approach to problems of water waves generated by sudden disturbances of the free surface makes use of the Cauchy-Poisson-Lamb theory. A large number of theoretical developments to this theory have been made for specific forms of surface disturbance. A development by Unoki and Nakano (1953a, b) considers both two- and three-dimensional Cauchy-Poisson waves generated by finite initial elevations and impulses applied to a free surface of infinitely deep water. Unoki and Nakano's results compared well to the wave systems recorded following submarine eruptions of the Myojinsho Reef volcano in 1952–53.Given the similarity of the two situations, Unoki and Nakano's theory is applied to Kick 'em Jenny to provide estimates of potential Cauchy-Poisson wave heights throughout the eastern Caribbean for a range of eruption magnitudes. The results show that, although the waves generated are unlikely to pose much of a threat to the eastern Caribbean as a whole, they should be considered a hazard to the islands immediately adjacent to the volcano including Grenada, the Grenadines, and St Vincent.     

Metamorphism and metamorphic K–Ar ages of the Mesozoic accretionary complex in Northland, New Zealand

Abstract A southwest dipping Mesozoic accretionary complex, which consists of tectonically imbricated turbiditic mudstone and sandstone, hemipelagic siliceous mudstone, and bedded cherts and basaltic rocks of pelagic origin, is exposed in northern North Island, New Zealand. Interpillow limestone is sometimes contained in the basaltic rocks. The grade of subduction‐related metamorphism increases from northeast to southwest, indicating an inverted metamorphic gradient dip. Three metamorphic facies are recognized largely on the basis of mineral parageneses in sedimentary and basaltic rocks: zeolite, prehnite‐pumpellyite and pumpellyite‐actinolite. From the apparent interplanar spacing d₀₀₂ data for carbonaceous material, which range from 3.642 to 3.564 Å, the highest grade of metamorphism is considered to have attained only the lowermost grade of the pumpellyite‐actinolite facies for which the highest temperature may be approximately 300°C. Metamorphic white mica K–Ar ages are reported for magnetic separates and <2 µm hydraulic elutriation separates from 27 pelitic and semipelitic samples. The age data obtained from elutriation separates are approximately 8 m.y. younger, on average, than those from magnetic separates. The age difference is attributed to the possible admixture of nonequilibrated detrital white mica in the magnetic separates, and the age of the elutriation separates is considered to be the age of metamorphism. If the concept, based on fossil evidence, of the subdivision of the Northland accretionary complex into north and south units is accepted, then the peak age of metamorphism in the north unit is likely to be 180–130 Ma; that is, earliest Middle Jurassic to early Early Cretaceous, whereas that in the south unit is 150–130 Ma; that is, late Late Jurassic to early Early Cretaceous. The age cluster for the north unit correlates with that of the Chrystalls Beach–Taieri Mouth section (uncertain terrane), while the age cluster for the south unit is older than that of the Younger Torlesse Subterrane in the Wellington area, and may be comparable with that of the Nelson and Marlborough areas (Caples and Waipapa terranes).     

Climate change and future flows of Rocky Mountain rivers: converging forecasts from empirical trend projection and down‐scaled global circulation modelling

To predict future river flows, empirical trend projection (ETP) analyses and extends historic trends, while hydroclimatic modelling (HCM) incorporates regional downscaling from global circulation model (GCM) outputs. We applied both approaches to the extensively allocated Oldman River Basin that drains the North American Rocky Mountains and provides an international focus for water sharing. For ETP, we analysed monthly discharges from 1912 to 2008 with non‐parametric regression, and extrapolated changes to 2055. For modelling, we refined the physical models MTCLIM and SNOPAC to provide water inputs into RIVRQ (river discharge), a model that assesses the streamflow regime as involving dynamic peaks superimposed on stable baseflow. After parameterization with 1960–1989 data, we assessed climate forecasts from six GCMs: CGCM1‐A, HadCM3, NCAR‐CCM3, ECHAM4 and 5 and GCM2. Modelling reasonably reconstructed monthly hydrographs (R² about 0·7), and averaging over three decades closely reconstructed the monthly pattern (R² = 0·94). When applied to the GCM forecasts, the model predicted that summer flows would decline considerably, while winter and early spring flows would increase, producing a slight decline in the annual discharge (?3%, 2005–2055). The ETP predicted similarly decreased summer flows but slight change in winter flows and greater annual flow reduction (?9%). The partial convergence of the seasonal flow projections increases confidence in a composite analysis and we thus predict further declines in summer (about ? 15%) and annual flows (about ? 5%). This composite projection indicates a more modest change than had been anticipated based on earlier GCM analyses or trend projections that considered only three or four decades. For other river basins, we recommend the utilization of ETP based on the longest available streamflow records, and HCM with multiple GCMs. The degree of correspondence from these two independent approaches would provide a basis for assessing the confidence in projections for future river flows and surface water supplies. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Atrazine Used as a Tracer of Induced Recharge

The city of Lincoln draws water from a well field along the banks of the Platte River in east-central Nebraska. We have been able to follow the infusion of atrazine into this well field under induced recharge. Samples of water from the river, several monitoring wells and a production well were analyzed by GC/MS and solid phase extraction and found to change in concentration over the range 0.1 and 5.0 ppb of atrazine through the spring, summer, and fall 1989. Increases in the concentration of atrazine relating to precipitation events in the Platte River Basin were observable in the well water samples and ultimately in Lincoln municipal tap water. Atrazine from the river was seen to move via induced recharge and into well field ground water and away from the river at an observable rate. The concentration of atrazine in the river is dependent upon time of year and precipitation in the river basin.