Carbon dioxide emissions in a methane economy

Increasing reliance on natural gas (methane) to meet global energy demands holds implications for atmospheric CO₂ concentrations. Analysis of these implications is presented, based on a logistic substitution model viewing energy technologies like biological species invading an econiche and substituting in case of superiority for existing species. This model suggests gas will become the dominant energy source and remain so for 50 years, peaking near 70 percent of world supply. Two scenarios of energy demand are explored, one holding per capita consumption at current levels, the second raising the global average in the year 2100 to the current U.S. level. In the first (efficiency) scenario concentrations peak about 450 ppm, while in the second (long wave) they near 600 ppm. Although projected CO₂ concentrations in a methane economy are low in relation to other scenarios, the projections confirm that global climate warming is likely to be a major planetary concern throughout the twenty-first century. A second finding is that data on past growth of world per capita energy consumption group neatly into two pulses consistent with longwave theories in economics.     

A proposal for a new scenario framework to support research and assessment in different climate research communities

In this paper, we propose a scenario framework that could provide a scenario “thread” through the different climate research communities (climate change – vulnerability, impact, and adaptation - and mitigation) in order to support assessment of mitigation and adaptation strategies and climate impacts. The scenario framework is organized around a matrix with two main axes: radiative forcing levels and socio-economic conditions. The radiative forcing levels (and the associated climate signal) are described by the new Representative Concentration Pathways. The second axis, socio-economic developments comprises elements that affect the capacity for mitigation and adaptation, as well as the exposure to climate impacts. The proposed scenarios derived from this framework are limited in number, allow for comparison across various mitigation and adaptation levels, address a range of vulnerability characteristics, provide information across climate forcing and vulnerability states and span a full century time scale. Assessments based on the proposed scenario framework would strengthen cooperation between integrated-assessment modelers, climate modelers and vulnerability, impact and adaptation researchers, and most importantly, facilitate the development of more consistent and comparable research within and across these research communities.     

Statistical methods as indicator of offset printing wastewater quality

This study presents the application of different chemometric approaches on the dataset obtained during the monitoring of offset printing wastewater quality in Pozarevac, Serbia. Collecting of wastewaters was performed during a working week, five working days, in five offset printing facilities. Twenty five physico-chemical parameters were analyzed in wastewaters using the standard analytical and instrumental methods. The obtained dataset were subjected to cluster analysis and principal component analysis. Cluster analysis showed four groups of similarity between the printing facilities reflecting the different physico-chemical characteristics and pollution levels of studied wastewaters. Principal component analysis identified two principal components responsible for the data structure explaining 86 % of total variance of offset printing wastewaters. The obtained principal components indicate the parameters that are the most responsible for variation of offset printing wastewaters. This study clearly demonstrates the usefulness of chemometric methods in analysis of printing wastewater quality, identification of the main sources and understanding of spatial variations in wastewater quality. Also, it could be useful for the selection of an appropriate wastewater treatment plant.     

What do near-term observations tell us about long-term developments in greenhouse gas emissions?

Long-term scenarios developed by integrated assessment models are used in climate research to provide an indication of plausible long-term emissions of greenhouse gases and other radiatively active substances based on developments in the global energy system, land-use and the emissions associated with these systems. The phenomena that determine these long-term developments (several decades or even centuries) are very different than those that operate on a shorter time-scales (a few years). Nevertheless, in the literature, we still often find direct comparisons between short-term observations and long-term developments that do not take into account the differing dynamics over these time scales. In this letter, we discuss some of the differences between the factors that operate in the short term and those that operate in the long term. We use long-term historical emissions trends to show that short-term observations are very poor indicators of long-term future emissions developments. Based on this, we conclude that the performance of long-term scenarios should be evaluated against the appropriate, corresponding long-term variables and trends. The research community may facilitate this by developing appropriate data sets and protocols that can be used to test the performance of long-term scenarios and the models that produce them.     

The representative concentration pathways: an overview

This paper summarizes the development process and main characteristics of the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), a set of four new pathways developed for the climate modeling community as a basis for long-term and near-term modeling experiments. The four RCPs together span the range of year 2100 radiative forcing values found in the open literature, i.e. from 2.6 to 8.5 W/m². The RCPs are the product of an innovative collaboration between integrated assessment modelers, climate modelers, terrestrial ecosystem modelers and emission inventory experts. The resulting product forms a comprehensive data set with high spatial and sectoral resolutions for the period extending to 2100. Land use and emissions of air pollutants and greenhouse gases are reported mostly at a 0.5?×?0.5 degree spatial resolution, with air pollutants also provided per sector (for well-mixed gases, a coarser resolution is used). The underlying integrated assessment model outputs for land use, atmospheric emissions and concentration data were harmonized across models and scenarios to ensure consistency with historical observations while preserving individual scenario trends. For most variables, the RCPs cover a wide range of the existing literature. The RCPs are supplemented with extensions (Extended Concentration Pathways, ECPs), which allow climate modeling experiments through the year 2300. The RCPs are an important development in climate research and provide a potential foundation for further research and assessment, including emissions mitigation and impact analysis.     

Characterization of Organic Contaminants in New York/New Jersey Harbor Sediments Using FTIR‐ATR and Synchrotron FTIR

Dredging and remediation of contaminated Harbor sediments requires characterization of organic pollutants. In this paper, we apply a combination of Fourier transform IR attenuated total reflectance (FTIR‐ATR) and synchrotron FTIR techniques to the investigation of sediments and related materials from New York/New Jersey Harbor and other locations. The FTIR techniques give information on the functional groups of the compounds found in the sediments and make possible measurements with a spatial resolution of about 0.015 mm. Comparisons of natural organic materials namely, river and groundwater humic substances, recent marine and lacustrine sediments, and ancient sedimentary kerogen show that contaminated NY/NJ Harbor sediments display a strong and distinct absorption in their IR spectra at 2850–2950 cm^?1 identified as a C? H stretching band, indicative of the presence of anthropogenic hydrocarbons. We suggest that the presence of this band could be used for rapid screening for the presence of contaminant organic compounds in sediments encountered in dredging operations and/or as an indicator for the efficacy of sediment decontamination technologies used for treatment of dredged material.     

Climate policies can help resolve energy security and air pollution challenges

This paper assesses three key energy sustainability objectives: energy security improvement, climate change mitigation, and the reduction of air pollution and its human health impacts. We explain how the common practice of narrowly focusing on singular issues ignores potentially enormous synergies, highlighting the need for a paradigm shift toward more holistic policy approaches. Our analysis of a large ensemble of alternate energy-climate futures, developed using MESSAGE, an integrated assessment model, shows that stringent climate change policy offers a strategic entry point along the path to energy sustainability in several dimensions. Concerted decarbonization efforts can lead to improved air quality, thereby reducing energy-related health impacts worldwide: upwards of 2–32 million fewer disability-adjusted life years in 2030, depending on the aggressiveness of the air pollution policies foreseen in the baseline. At the same time, low-carbon technologies and energy-efficiency improvements can help to further the energy security goals of individual countries and regions by promoting a more dependable, resilient, and diversified energy portfolio. The cost savings of these climate policy synergies are potentially enormous: $100–600 billion annually by 2030 in reduced pollution control and energy security expenditures (0.1–0.7 % of GDP). Novel aspects of this paper include an explicit quantification of the health-related co-benefits of present and future air pollution control policies; an analysis of how future constraints on regional trade could influence energy security; a detailed assessment of energy expenditures showing where financing needs to flow in order to achieve the multiple energy sustainability objectives; and a quantification of the relationships between different fulfillment levels for energy security and air pollution goals and the probability of reaching the 2 °C climate target.     

A model-order reduction framework for hybrid simulation based on component-mode synthesis

Testing of stiff physical substructures (PSs) still poses major technical issues that prevent from adopting hybrid simulation (HS) as a standard structural testing method. Firstly, elastic deformation of reaction frames, as well as the limited resolution of displacement transducers, deteriorate displacement control accuracy. Secondly, as a consequence of control errors, small perturbations of actuator displacements entail large restoring force oscillations that spuriously excite the higher eigenmodes of the hybrid model. For this reason, in the current practice, force-controlled hydraulic jacks handle vertical degrees of freedom, which are typically associated with stiff axially loaded members and excluded from the time integration loop. Vertical forces are either kept constant or adjusted during the experiment based on simplified redistribution rules. Besides deterioration of displacement control accuracy, stiff PSs naturally increase the frequency bandwidth of the hybrid model, whose higher eigenfrequencies (divided by the testing time scale) may fall outside the frequency bandwidth of the actuation system, thus destabilizing the HS. This is a collateral issue to which, in the authors' knowledge, no sufficient attention as been dedicated yet, and this paper tries to address it. From this standpoint, we propose component-mode synthesis as a rigorous approach for deriving reduced-order physical and numerical substructure mass and stiffness matrices that minimize the frequency bandwidth of the hybrid model. The proposed methodology allowed for performing HSs of a load-bearing unreinforced masonry structure including both horizontal and vertical degrees of freedom with a standard three-actuator setup used for cyclic testing.     

RCP 8.5��A scenario of comparatively high greenhouse gas emissions

This paper summarizes the main characteristics of the RCP8.5 scenario. The RCP8.5 combines assumptions about high population and relatively slow income growth with modest rates of technological change and energy intensity improvements, leading in the long term to high energy demand and GHG emissions in absence of climate change policies. Compared to the total set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), RCP8.5 thus corresponds to the pathway with the highest greenhouse gas emissions. Using the IIASA Integrated Assessment Framework and the MESSAGE model for the development of the RCP8.5, we focus in this paper on two important extensions compared to earlier scenarios: 1) the development of spatially explicit air pollution projections, and 2) enhancements in the land-use and land-cover change projections. In addition, we explore scenario variants that use RCP8.5 as a baseline, and assume different degrees of greenhouse gas mitigation policies to reduce radiative forcing. Based on our modeling framework, we find it technically possible to limit forcing from RCP8.5 to lower levels comparable to the other RCPs (2.6 to 6 W/m²). Our scenario analysis further indicates that climate policy-induced changes of global energy supply and demand may lead to significant co-benefits for other policy priorities, such as local air pollution.