Seismic potential of Southern Italy

To improve estimates of the long-term average seismic potential of the slowly straining South Central Mediterranean plate boundary zone, we integrate constraints on tectonic style and deformation rates from geodetic and geologic data with the traditional constraints from seismicity catalogs. We express seismic potential (long-term average earthquake recurrence rates as a function of magnitude) in the form of truncated Gutenberg–Richter distributions for seven seismotectonic source zones. Seismic coupling seems to be large or even complete in most zones. An exception is the southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone, where most of the African–European convergence is accommodated. Here aseismic deformation is estimated to range from at least 25% along the western part to almost 100% aseismic slip around the Aeolian Islands. Even so, seismic potential of this zone has previously been significantly underestimated, due to the low levels of recorded past seismicity. By contrast, the series of 19 M6–7 earthquakes that hit Calabria in the 18th and 19th century released tectonic strain rates accumulated over time spans up to several times the catalog duration, and seismic potential is revised downward. The southern Tyrrhenian thrust zone and the extensional Calabrian faults, as well as the northeastern Sicilian transtensional zone between them (which includes the Messina Straits, where a destructive M7 event occurred in 1908), all have a similar seismic potential with minimum recurrence times of M ≥ 6.5 of 150–220 years. This potential is lower than that of the Southern Apennines (M ≥ 6.5 recurring every 60 to 140 years), but higher than that of southeastern Sicily (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 400 years). The high seismicity levels recorded in southeastern Sicily indicate some clustering and are most compatible with a tectonic scenario where the Ionian deforms internally, and motions at the Calabrian Trench are small. The estimated seismic potential for the Calabrian Trench and Central and Western Sicily are the lowest (minimum M ≥ 6.5 recurrence times of 550–800 years). Most zones are probably capable of generating earthquakes up to magnitudes 7–7.5, with the exception of Central and Western Sicily where maximum events sizes most likely do not exceed 7.     

基于2002-2018年MODIS数据的黄海叶绿素a时空变化研究

浮游植物作为食物链的基础,对海洋生态系统具有重要影响。黄海作为我国重要的渔场,渔业资源面临枯竭的危险,因此对该区浮游植物进行研究具有重要意义。叶绿素a浓度是反映浮游植物生物量的重要指标。利用谷歌地球引擎平台对2002-2018年的MODIS Aqua叶绿素a浓度数据进行处理,并研究其时空分布与变化特征,然后结合区域气候、水文与地理特征以及海洋表面温度、风速、盐度、光合有效辐射和混合层厚度数据分析了其分布与变化的原因。研究发现:受陆源营养物质输入、近岸上升流以及黄海中央冷水团影响,叶绿素a浓度分布呈现由近岸向黄海中部递减特征;在季风、气候、水文的控制下,受风速、海洋表面温度、光合有效辐射、中央冷水团的影响,叶绿素a浓度的最大值出现在4月份,而最小值出现在6、7月份;受苏北沿岸海域海水污染和水体富营养化影响,沿岸海域盐度明显增加,海州湾叶绿素a浓度增速较大;影响黄海叶绿素a浓度变化的环境因子较复杂,除了部分月份存在显著的相关影响因子外,在全年和各季中不存在主导影响因子。     

近20年渤海叶绿素a浓度时空变化

浮游植物作为食物链的基础，对海洋生态系统具有重要作用。渤海作为我国最大的内海和重要渔业生物的产卵场、育幼场和索饵场，该区浮游植物研究具有重要意义。叶绿素a浓度是反映浮游植物生物量的重要指标。利用Google Earth Engine平台，对1997–2010年的宽视场海洋观测传感器(SeaWiFS)叶绿素a浓度数据和2002–2018年的水色卫星中分辨率成像光谱仪传感器(MODIS Aqua)叶绿素a浓度数据进行合并，并研究其时空变化特征。研究表明，近20年来，渤海全年叶绿素a浓度增加了14.1%，且增加显著。叶绿素a浓度在所有季节都呈现增加趋势；除11月外，其他各月都呈现稳定或增加趋势。从滦河入河口沿岸至渤海海峡的渤海中部，叶绿素a浓度增加较明显。同时也分析了海洋表面温度、风速和降水量数据。夏季渤海周边区域降水量和风速增加以及秋季海表温度的降低都有助于同季叶绿素a浓度的升高。渤海浮游植物可能受陆源营养物质输入影响较大。     

Estimate of shallow groundwater recharge in the Hadejia–Nguru Wetlands, semi-arid northeastern Nigeria

 The Hadejia–Nguru Wetlands are annually inundated flood plains in semi-arid northeastern Nigeria. The area has a unique ecosystem that forms a natural barrier against the encroachment of the Sahara desert. Both the rich wetland vegetation and local farmers using shallow tube wells depend on a groundwater mound (with a water table less than 6 m below the surface) that is present in the unconfined aquifer under the flood-plain area. Using well records (1991–97) and a hydrogeologic profile based on piezometers that were monitored for two years, it is shown that recharge through the annually inundated flood plains is the source of the groundwater mound. Maintenance of the groundwater-recharge function of the flood plains depends on wet-season releases from two large upstream dams. On the basis of a water-budget method, the mean (1991–97) wet-season unconfined groundwater recharge in the flood-plain area between Hadejia and Nguru and in the immediate vicinity (1250 km²) is estimated to be 132 mm (range, 73–197 mm). Outflow from the unconfined flood-plain aquifer to the unconfined upland aquifer is approximately 10% of the wet-season flood-plain recharge. The unconfined groundwater outflow from the flood-plain area can provide a significant contribution to the present-day rural water supply in the surrounding uplands, but it does not offer much potential for additional groundwater abstraction. In addition to outflow to the upland aquifer (∼14 mm), the distribution of the annually recharged water volume of the shallow flood-plain aquifer is (1) domestic uses (3 mm), (2) small-scale irrigation (∼15 mm), and (3) evapotranspiration ( 1 100 mm). Along the hydrogeologic profile, the recharge in the upland (i.e., outflow from the unconfined flood-plain aquifer and possibly diffuse rain-fed recharge) is in balance with the water uses (i.e., domestic uses, groundwater outflow, and evapotranspiration). The absence of a seasonal water-level trend in the two piezometers in the upland indicates that no rain-fed recharge occurs through preferential path-way (macropore) flow. Received, June 1998 / Revised, November 1998, January 1999 / Accepted, January 1999     

Structure and seismicity of the Aegean subduction zone

Tomographic results show the presence of a high-velocity anomaly dipping north beneath the Aegean Sea (Hellenic arc), down to a depth of at least 600 km. This anomaly is interpreted as the image of the subducting lithosphere of the African plate. No deep seismicity, however, is associated with this downgoing slab, although this would be expected on the basis of the age of the downbending lithosphere (approximately 100 Myr) and the inferred duration of the present ongoing episode of subduction. Using a thermo-mechanical model for the subduction zone we find that the non-stationary input of the subduction zone-both in convergence rate and in thermal structure of the downgoing lithosphere - adequately accounts for both the presence of a velocity anomaly associated with a slab and the absence of deep seismicity. The non-stationarity follows from the large-scale tectonic setting of the Eastern Mediterranean basin.     

Monsoon driven changes in phytoplankton populations in the eastern Arabian Sea as revealed by microscopy and HPLC pigment analysis

Like the rest of the Arabian Sea, the west coast of India is subject to semi-annual wind reversals associated with the monsoon cycle that result in two periods of elevated phytoplankton productivity, one during the northeast (NE) monsoon (November–February) and the other during the southwest (SW) monsoon (June–September). Although the seasonality of phytoplankton biomass in these coastal waters is well known, the abundance and composition of phytoplankton populations associated with this distinct and predictable seasonal cycle is poorly known. Here we present for the first time, the results of a study on the community structure of phytoplankton for this region, derived from HPLC pigment analysis and microscopic cell counts. Our sampling strategy allowed for large spatial and temporal coverage over regions representative of the coastal and offshore waters, and over seasons that included the NE and the SW monsoon. Monthly observations at a fixed coastal station in particular, allowed us to follow changes in phytoplankton community structure associated with the development of anoxia. Together these measurements helped establish a pattern of seasonal change of three major groups of phytoplankton: diatoms, dinoflagellates and cyanobacteria that appeared to be tightly coupled with hydrographic and chemical changes associated with the monsoonal cycle. During the SW monsoon when nitrate concentrations were high, diatoms were dominant but prymnesiophytes were present as well. By October, as nitrate fell to below detection levels and anoxic conditions began to develop on the shelf below the shallow pycnocline, both diatom and prymensiophytes declined sharply giving way to dinoflagellates. In the well oxygenated surface waters, where both nitrate and ammonium were below detection limits, pico-cyanobacterial populations became dominant.During the NE monsoon, a mixed diatom-dinoflagellate population was quickly replaced by blooms of Trichodesmium erythraeum and Noctiluca miliaris with higher amounts of zeaxanthin, β-carotene, Chl b and prasinoxanthin. Trichodesmium trichomes were noticed in the water column as early as December when nitrate concentrations became limiting. The low phytoplankton biomass and high ammonium concentrations argue that active grazing populations may be responsible for preventing diatom-dinoflagellate populations from establishing themselves to bloom proportions in the eastern Arabian Sea during the early NE monsoon. Trichodesmium continued its dominance well into May, when nutrient enrichment associated with its death and decay helped simulate the growth of both diatoms and dinoflagellates. Given that anoxic conditions are becoming more pervasive in the eastern Arabian Sea, our observations in particular, those of a shift towards dinoflagellate dominance during the development of anoxia assume particular importance.     

The economics (or lack thereof) of aerosol geoengineering

Anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions are changing the Earth’s climate and impose substantial risks for current and future generations. What are scientifically sound, economically viable, and ethically defendable strategies to manage these climate risks? Ratified international agreements call for a reduction of greenhouse gas emissions to avoid dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Recent proposals, however, call for a different approach: to geoengineer climate by injecting aerosol precursors into the stratosphere. Published economic studies typically neglect the risks of aerosol geoengineering due to (i) the potential for a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing and (ii) the negative impacts associated with the aerosol forcing. Here we use a simple integrated assessment model of climate change to analyze potential economic impacts of aerosol geoengineering strategies over a wide range of uncertain parameters such as climate sensitivity, the economic damages due to climate change, and the economic damages due to aerosol geoengineering forcing. The simplicity of the model provides the advantages of parsimony and transparency, but it also imposes severe caveats on the interpretation of the results. For example, the analysis is based on a globally aggregated model and is hence silent on intragenerational distribution of costs and benefits. In addition, the analysis neglects the effects of learning and has a very simplistic representation of climate change impacts. Our analysis suggests three main conclusions. First, substituting aerosol geoengineering for CO₂ abatement can be an economically ineffective strategy. One key to this finding is that a failure to sustain the aerosol forcing can lead to sizeable and abrupt climatic changes. The monetary damages due to such a discontinuous aerosol geoengineering can dominate the cost-benefit analysis because the monetary damages of climate change are expected to increase with the rate of change. Second, the relative contribution of aerosol geoengineering to an economically optimal portfolio hinges critically on, thus far, deeply uncertain estimates of the damages due to aerosol forcing. Even if we assume that aerosol forcing could be deployed continuously, the aerosol geoengineering does not considerably displace CO₂ abatement in the simple economic optimal growth model until the damages due to the aerosol forcing are rather low. Third, substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emission abatement can fail an ethical test regarding intergenerational justice. Substituting aerosol geoengineering for greenhouse gas emissions abatements constitutes a conscious risk transfer to future generations, in violation of principles of intergenerational justice which demands that present generations should not create benefits for themselves in exchange for burdens on future generations.     

Mesoscale and Nutrient Conditions Associated with the Massive 2008 Cochlodinium polykrikoides Bloom in the Sea of Oman/Arabian Gulf

Cochlodinium polykrikoides formed large blooms in the coastal waters of Oman from October 2008 through mid-January 2009, and satellite images from Aqua-MODIS and region-wide reports suggest that this bloom was found throughout the Arabian Gulf and Sea of Oman for more than 10 months. The unusual occurrence of this species appears to have supplanted the more regularly occurring bloom species, Noctiluca scintillans, in 2008–2009. For the first 2 weeks of the coastal Omani bloom, C. polykrikoides abundance was near monospecific proportions, with cell densities ranging from 4.6?×?10³ to 9?×?10⁶ cells L^?1 and very high levels of chlorophyll a (78.0 μg L^?1) were also recorded. The regional progression of the bloom likely began with stronger than normal upwelling along the Iranian and northern Omani coasts during the southwest monsoon in late summer, followed by discharge of unusually warm coastal plume water along the coast of Oman with the reversal of monsoonal winds in late October. The occurrence and persistence of high densities of C. polykrikoides in Oman coastal water were also significantly influenced by an elevated nutrient load and warmer than normal temperatures. Concentrations of nutrients, especially NH₄ ⁺, urea, PO₄ ^3?, and organic nitrogen and phosphorus, were manyfold higher than observed in the year prior or since. These findings suggest that mesoscale features were important in bloom dynamics more regionally, but locally the bloom was sustained by nutrient enrichment supplemented by its mixotrophic capabilities.