Dynamic adaptive policy pathways: A method for crafting robust decisions for a deeply uncertain world

A new paradigm for planning under conditions of deep uncertainty has emerged in the literature. According to this paradigm, a planner should create a strategic vision of the future, commit to short-term actions, and establish a framework to guide future actions. A plan that embodies these ideas allows for its dynamic adaptation over time to meet changing circumstances. We propose a method for decisionmaking under uncertain global and regional changes called ‘Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways’. We base our approach on two complementary approaches for designing adaptive plans: ‘Adaptive Policymaking’ and ‘Adaptation Pathways’. Adaptive Policymaking is a theoretical approach describing a planning process with different types of actions (e.g. ‘mitigating actions’ and ‘hedging actions’) and signposts to monitor to see if adaptation is needed. In contrast, Adaptation Pathways provides an analytical approach for exploring and sequencing a set of possible actions based on alternative external developments over time. We illustrate the Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways approach by producing an adaptive plan for long-term water management of the Rhine Delta in the Netherlands that takes into account the deep uncertainties about the future arising from social, political, technological, economic, and climate changes. The results suggest that it is worthwhile to further test and use the approach.     

Redefining the trophic importance of seagrasses for fauna in tropical Indo-Pacific meadows

Fauna species living in seagrass meadows depend on different food sources, with seagrasses often being marginally important for higher trophic levels. To determine the food web of a mixed-species tropical seagrass meadow in Sulawesi, Indonesia, we analyzed the stable isotope (δ¹³C and δ¹⁵N) signatures of primary producers, particulate organic matter (POM) and fauna species. In addition invertebrates, both infauna and macrobenthic, and fish densities were examined to identify the important species in the meadow. The aims of this study were to identify the main food sources of fauna species by comparing isotopic signatures of different primary producers and fauna, and to estimate qualitatively the importance of seagrass material in the food web. Phytoplankton and water column POM were the most depleted primary food sources for δ¹³C (range −23.1 to −19.6‰), but no fauna species depended only on these sources for carbon. Epiphytes and Sargassum sp. had intermediate δ¹³C values (−14.2 to −11.9‰). Sea urchins, gastropods and certain fish species were the main species assimilating this material. Seagrasses and sedimentary POM had the least depleted values (−11.5 to −5.7‰). Between the five seagrass species significant differences in δ¹³C were measured. The small species Halophila ovalis and Halodule uninervis were most depleted, the largest species Enhalus acoroides was least depleted, while Thalassia hemprichii and Cymodocea rotundata had intermediate values. Fourteen fauna species, accounting for 10% of the total fauna density, were shown to assimilate predominantly (>50%) seagrass material, either directly or indirectly by feeding on seagrass consumers. These species ranged from amphipods up to the benthic top predator Taeniura lymma. Besides these species, about half of the 55 fauna species analyzed had δ¹³C values higher than the least depleted non-seagrass source, indicating they depended at least partly for their food on seagrass material. This study shows that seagrass material is consumed by a large number of fauna species and is important for a large portion of the food web in tropical seagrass meadows.     

S/S fractionation by sulfate-reducing microbial communities in estuarine sediments

Sulfur isotope fractionation during microbial sulfate reduction in brackish estuarine sediments was studied using an experimental flow-through reactor approach designed to preserve the in situ physical, geochemical and microbial structure of the sediment. Concurrent measurements of potential sulfate reduction rates and ³⁴S/³²S fractionations were carried out using intact sediment slices (2 cm thick, 4.2 cm diameter) from unvegetated, intertidal sites adjoining a salt marsh along the Scheldt estuary, The Netherlands. A total of 30 reactor experiments were performed with sediments collected in February, May and October 2006. The effects of incubation temperature (10, 20, 30 and 50 °C) and sediment depth (0-2, 4-6 and 8-10 cm) were investigated. Sulfate was supplied in non-limiting concentrations via the reactor inflow solutions; no external electron donor was supplied. Isotope fractionations (ε values) were calculated from the measured differences in sulfate δ³⁴S between in- and outflow solutions of the reactors, under quasi-steady state conditions. Potential sulfate reduction rates (SRR) varied over one order of magnitude (5-49 nmol cm⁻³ h⁻¹) and were highest in the 30 °C incubations. They decreased systematically with depth, and were highest in the sediments collected closest to the vegetated marsh. Isotope fractionations ranged from 9‰ to 34‰ and correlated inversely with SRR, as predicted by the standard fractionation model for enzymatic sulfate reduction of Rees (1973). The ε versus SRR relationship, however, varied between sampling times, with higher ε values measured in February, at comparable SRRs, than in May and October. The observed ε versus SRR relationships also deviated from the previously reported inverse trend for sediments collected in a marine lagoon in Denmark (Canfield, 2001b). Thus, isotope fractionation during sulfate reduction is not uniquely determined by SRR, but is site- and time-dependent. Factors that may affect the ε versus SRR relationship include the structure and size of the sulfate-reducing community, and the nature and accessibility of organic substrates. Whole-sediment data such as those presented here provide a link between isotopic fractionations measured with pure cultures of sulfate-reducing prokaryotes and sulfur isotopic signatures recorded in sedimentary deposits.     

Exploring pathways for sustainable water management in river deltas in a changing environment

Exploring adaptation pathways into an uncertain future can support decisionmaking in achieving sustainable water management in a changing environment. Our objective is to develop and test a method to identify such pathways by including dynamics from natural variability and the interaction between the water system and society. Present planning studies on long-term water management often use a few plausible futures for one or two projection years, ignoring the dynamic aspect of adaptation through the interaction between the water system and society. Our approach is to explore pathways using multiple realisations of transient scenarios with an Integrated Assessment Meta Model (IAMM). This paper presents the first application of the method using a hypothetical case study. The case study shows how to explore and evaluate adaptation pathways. With the pathways it is possible to identify opportunities, threats, timing and sequence of policy options, which can be used by policymakers to develop water management roadmaps into the future. By including the dynamics between the water system and society, the influence of uncertainties in both systems becomes clearer. The results show, among others, that climate variability rather than climate change appears to be important for taking decisions in water management.     

Continuity and change in commuter partnerships: avoiding or postponing family migration

While most people in post-industrial societies, such as The Netherlands, continue to live as nuclear families, new household arrangements have emerged in which couples no longer commit to living in one shared residence. One such household arrangement is the commuter partnership, in which one partner lives near work part of the time. The objective in this article was to gain a better understanding of the sustainability of commuter partnerships and to contribute to uncovering the function that this household arrangement can have in the coordination of parallel careers of different household members over time. The study draws on in-depth interviews with both individual partners in 30 commuter partnerships with at least one residence located in The Netherlands, and a follow-up survey of the same commuter couples several years later. Our findings indicate that, for most couples, the commuter partnership should not be regarded as a prelude to family migration, but rather as a household arrangement by which family migration is avoided altogether, either for a limited period, or as a long-term alternative to the nuclear family. The findings further indicate that, when couples look on their commuter partnership as the result of their individual choice, they generally envision the future duration of their commuter partnership quite accurately. When their choice is guided by the external circumstances of job contracts, couples appear to be less accurate in predicting the future duration of their commuter partnerships.