How well do integrated assessment models simulate climate change?

Integrated assessment models (IAMs) are regularly used to evaluate different policies of future emissions reductions. Since the global costs associated with these policies are immense, it is vital that the uncertainties in IAMs are quantified and understood. We first demonstrate the significant spread in the climate system and carbon cycle components of several contemporary IAMs. We then examine these components in more detail to understand the causes of differences, comparing the results with more complex climate models and earth system models (ESMs), where available. Our results show that in most cases the outcomes of IAMs are within the range of the outcomes of complex models, but differences are large enough to matter for policy advice. There are areas where IAMs would benefit from improvements (e.g. climate sensitivity, inertia in climate response, carbon cycle feedbacks). In some cases, additional climate model experiments are needed to be able to tune some of these improvements. This will require better communication between the IAM and ESM development communities.     

A global method for coupling transport with chemistry in heterogeneous porous media

Modeling reactive transport in porous media, using a local chemical equilibrium assumption, leads to a system of advection–diffusion PDEs coupled with algebraic equations. When solving this coupled system, the algebraic equations have to be solved at each grid point for each chemical species and at each time step. This leads to a coupled non-linear system. In this paper, a global solution approach that enables to keep the software codes for transport and chemistry distinct is proposed. The method applies the Newton–Krylov framework to the formulation for reactive transport used in operator splitting. The method is formulated in terms of total mobile and total fixed concentrations and uses the chemical solver as a black box, as it only requires that one be able to solve chemical equilibrium problems (and compute derivatives) without having to know the solution method. An additional advantage of the Newton–Krylov method is that the Jacobian is only needed as an operator in a Jacobian matrix times vector product. The proposed method is tested on the MoMaS reactive transport benchmark.     

Contributions of individual countries?? emissions to climate change and their uncertainty

We have compiled historical greenhouse gas emissions and their uncertainties on country and sector level and assessed their contribution to cumulative emissions and to global average temperature increase in the past and for a the future emission scenario. We find that uncertainty in historical contribution estimates differs between countries due to different shares of greenhouse gases and time development of emissions. Although historical emissions in the distant past are very uncertain, their influence on countries?? or sectors?? contributions to temperature increase is relatively small in most cases, because these results are dominated by recent (high) emissions. For relative contributions to cumulative emissions and temperature rise, the uncertainty introduced by unknown historical emissions is larger than the uncertainty introduced by the use of different climate models. The choice of different parameters in the calculation of relative contributions is most relevant for countries that are different from the world average in greenhouse gas mix and timing of emissions. The choice of the indicator (cumulative GWP weighted emissions or temperature increase) is very important for a few countries (altering contributions up to a factor of 2) and could be considered small for most countries (in the order of 10%). The choice of the year, from which to start accounting for emissions (e.g. 1750 or 1990), is important for many countries, up to a factor of 2.2 and on average of around 1.3. Including or excluding land-use change and forestry or non-CO₂ gases changes relative contributions dramatically for a third of the countries (by a factor of 5 to a factor of 90). Industrialised countries started to increase CO₂ emissions from energy use much earlier. Developing countries?? emissions from land-use change and forestry as well as of CH₄ and N₂O were substantial before their emissions from energy use.     

A simple and efficient approach to predict reservoir settling volume: case study of Bin El Ouidane reservoir (Morocco)

The negligence of the cumulative deposit volume over years may lead to uselessness of a pre-established and efficient reservoir management method. In this objective, this paper tries to introduce a simple approach to forecast annually the volume lost from the reservoir capacity. The suggested approach employs the modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE) and the Dendy and Bolton (J Soil Water Conserv 31:264–266, 1976) methods, in addition to the sediment consolidation process. This process permits to follow the evolution of sediment deposit volume throughout the years. For application, we selected the reservoir of Bin El Ouidane (Morocco), for which we have tried to fit a linear regression between sediment yield and observed settling volumes. The optimization process was assured by the algorithm genetic and the OptQuest methods. The results show a high significant (R²?=?0.9513, RMSE?=?8.5428, and p value?=?0.0009) linear regression between cumulative sediment yield volume and accumulated measured lost volume from the reservoir of Bin El Ouidane. The use of a linear relation is justified by the fact that all nonlinear regressions in long term are composed of multiple linear regressions in short term. Nevertheless, this method can become more efficient, and confirmed for real forecasting applications by performing modifications essentially related to in situ measures of different variables. Finally, and considering its simplicity regarding input data and application, the proposed approach converges to efficient results. Therefore, and after validation in other reservoirs, this method can be used to forecast annual reservoir settling at short term.     

Numerical heat and fluid flow modeling of the Hercynian Draa Sfar polymetallic (Zn–Pb–Cu) massive sulfide deposit,Central Jbilets,Morocco

Draa Sfar is a polymetallic (Zn–Pb–Cu) volcanogenic massive sulfide deposit with an actual resource of 13 Mt at 4.0% Zn and 1.3% Pb. It is part of the central Jbilets area known for its several Cu–Zn ore deposits. The ore is hosted in the upper Visean-Namurien sedimentary formation. Owing to the complexity of the geology of the ore deposits, numerical simulation approach was attempted to shed light into the temperature distribution, the circulation of the hydrothermal fluid and the genesis of massive sulfide ore bodies by evaluating the permeability, porosity, and thermal conductivity. On the basis of this simulation approach, the ore is predicted to be deposited at a temperature ranging between 230 and 290 °C. This temperature range is dependent on the pre-existing temperature of the discharge area where a metal-rich fluid precipitated the ore. The duration of the Draa Sfar ore body formation is predicted to be 15, 000 to 50, 000 years. Based on geological studies of Draa Sfar deposit together with the aforementioned results of the simulation approach, an ore genetic model for the massive sulfide ore bodies is proposed. In this model, the supply of ore-forming fluids is ensured by the combination of seawater and magmatic waters. Magma that generated rhyodacite dome acted as the heat source that remobilized the circulation of these ore-bearing fluids. The NW-SE trending faults acted as potential pathways for both the downward and upward migration of the ore-forming fluids. Due to their high permeability, the ignimbritic facies, host rocks of Draa Sfar ore bodies, have favored the circulation of the fluids. The mixing between the ore-forming fluids of magmatic origin and the descending seawaters and/or in situ pore waters led to the formation the ore bodies in 35,000 years. The position and size of the ore body, determined by the simulation approach, is consistent with the actual field geological data.     

Is it possible to limit global warming to no more than 1.5°C?

This study explores the feasibility of limiting increases in global temperature to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels. A probabilistic simple climate model is used to identify emissions paths that offer at least a 50% chance of achieving this goal. We conclude that it is more likely than not that warming would exceed 1.5°C, at least temporarily, under plausible mitigation scenarios. We have identified three criteria of emissions paths that could meet the 1.5°C goal with a temporary overshoot of no more than 50 years: early and strong reductions in emissions, with global emissions peaking in 2015 and falling to at most 44–48 GtCO₂e in 2020; rapid reductions in annual global emissions after 2020 (of at least 3–4% per year); very low annual global emissions by 2100 (less than 2–4 GtCO₂e) and falling to zero (or below) in the 22nd century. The feasibility of these characteristics is uncertain. We conclude that the proposed date of review of the 1.5°C goal, set at 2015, may be too late to achieve the necessary scaling up of emissions cuts to achieve this goal.     

Radiological hazard assessment for building materials incorporating phosphogypsum made using Eshidiya mine rock in Jordan

The mean activity concentrations of ²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th, and ⁴⁰K in Eshidiya phosphogypsum samples were measured as 351.4 ± 23.4, 3.8 ± 0.3, and 120.7 ± 8.3 Bq kg^?1, respectively. The results show that the mean values of activity concentration of ²²⁶Ra, ²³²Th, and ⁴⁰K are in the lower range of typical values reported for phosphogypsum samples collected worldwide. Radiological hazard indices such as the radium-equivalent activity (Ra_eq), the gamma index (I _γ ) alpha index (I _α ), the absorbed gamma dose rate (D _in), and the corresponding annual effective dose (E _in) were assessed for building materials for dwellings. The results of assessment exhibit that all phosphogypsum samples are higher than the recommended safe limit for building materials for dwellings, except for the radium-equivalent activity (Ra_eq). Overall assessment, it can be concluded that the possibility of using Eshidiya phosphogypsum in building materials in proportions lower than 100 % will be safe. The mixture of phosphogypsum with normal gypsum can dilute the concentrations of natural radionuclides allowing the use of the mixed building materials to be safe from a radiological point of view.     

Adsorption of polar aromatic hydrocarbons on synthetic calcite

The wettability of hydrocarbon reservoirs depends on how and to what extent the organic compounds are adsorbed onto the surfaces of calcite, quartz and clay. A model system of synthetic calcite, cyclohexane and the three probe molecules: benzoic acid, benzyl alcohol and benzylamine, have been studied by adsorption experiments. The results clearly demonstrate the differences in the adsorption behaviour between probes with different functional groups of varying polarity and acidity. The maximum adsorption decreases in the order: benzoic acid, benzyl alcohol and benzylamine. The order of magnitude of ΔG° for the adsorption process implies the formation of a strong bond between the calcite surface and the adsorbate molecules.