Litterfall of three subtropical mangrove species in the family Rhizophoraceae

This study was conducted to evaluate and compare the litterfall dynamics of three mangrove species in the family Rhizophoraceae: Rhizophora stylosa, Kandelia obovata, and Bruguiera gymnorrhiza, in Manko Wetland, Okinawa Island, Japan. Over 3?years, these species showed highest litterfall of leaves and stipules in summer and the lowest litterfall in winter. Litterfall of flowers and fruits peaked in July for R. stylosa, and in August and again in October?CNovember for K. obovata. Litterfall of flower buds, flowers, and propagules occurred throughout the year for B. gymnorrhiza, but was highest in summer. Litterfall of propagules was highest in September and May for R. stylosa and K. obovata, respectively. Kendall??s coefficient of concordance revealed that the monthly changes for leaf, stipule, flower, and fruit litterfalls of all the species were strongly and significantly concordant among the years. The conversion rate of flowers to propagules was 2.3?% in R. stylosa, 5.9?% in K. obovata, and 10.3?% in B. gymnorrhiza. Total annual litterfall in R. stylosa was significantly different from K. obovata and B. gymnorrhiza; however, the latter two species showed no significant differences. Leaves contributed the most to the total litterfall of all three species, and represented 58.4, 54.0, and 50.4?% of the total litterfall for R. stylosa, K. obovata, and B. gymnorrhiza, respectively. Except for branches and flower bud primordia, all other components of litterfall had clear annual cycles for all three species. Rhizophora stylosa and K. obovata showed a negative correlation between leaf production and reproductive organ production, but B. gymnorrhiza tended to increase leaf production with increasing reproductive organ production.     

Changing patterns in rainfall extremes in South Australia

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - Daily rainfall records from seven stations in South Australia, with record lengths from 50 to 137 years and a common period of 36 years, are...     

Multiple step ahead river flow modelling for south east tasmanian aquaculture

We develop multiple step ahead prediction models of river flow for locations in Tasmania (Australia) for decision support in aquaculture. In predicting river flows for multiple days ahead, we first statistically determine the maximum input lags of rainfall and river flow. We then use machine learning techniques in building models. In multiple step ahead prediction, we consider both static and dynamic approaches. In dynamic approach, one day prediction is served as input to two days ahead prediction. The experimental results demonstrate that, in general, a dynamic approach provides better accuracy in multiple day’s ahead prediction. For Duck Bay location using dynamic approach, support vector regression performs best over linear regression, M5P and multilayer perceptron. However, at Montagu Bay location, we find that M5P performs best over methods. We find that multiple step ahead prediction of river flow for each location requires modelling of lags with associated machine learning techniques.     

Non‐stationarity in rainfall and temperature in the Murray Darling Basin

Two analyses, one based on multiple regression and the other using the Holt–Winters algorithm, for investigating non‐stationarity in environmental time series are presented. They are applied to monthly rainfall and average maximum temperature time series of lengths between 38 and 108 years, from six stations in the Murray Darling Basin and four cities in eastern Australia. The first analysis focuses on the residuals after fitting regression models which allow for seasonal variation, the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI). The models provided evidence that rainfall is reduced during periods of negative SOI, and that the interaction between PDO and SOI pronounces this effect during periods of negative PDO. Following this, there was no evidence of any trend in either the PDO or SOI time series. The residuals from this regression were analysed with a cumulative sum (CUSUM) technique, and the statistical significance was assessed using a Monte Carlo method. The residuals were also analysed for volatility, autocorrelation, long‐range dependence and spatial correlation. For all ten rainfall and temperature time series, CUSUM plots of the residuals provided evidence of non‐stationarity for both temperature and rainfall, after removing seasonal effects and the effects of PDO and SOI. Rainfall was generally lower in the first half of the twentieth century and higher during the second half. However, it decreased again over the last 10 years. This pattern was highlighted with 5‐year moving average plots. The residuals for temperature showed a complementary pattern with increases in temperature corresponding to decreased rainfall. The second analysis decomposed the rainfall and temperature time series into random variation about an underlying level, trend and additive seasonal effects and changes in the level; trend and seasonal effects were tracked using a Holt–Winters algorithm. The results of this analysis were qualitatively similar to those of the regression analysis. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The self-thinning exponent in overcrowded stands of the mangrove, Kandelia obovata, on Okinawa Island, Japan

Weller??s allometric model assumes that the allometric relationships of mean area occupied by a tree $ \bar{s} $ , i.e., the reciprocal of population density $ \rho $ , $ \bar{s}\left( { = {1 \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {1 {\rho = g_{\varphi } \cdot \bar{w}^{\varphi } }}} \right. \kern-0em} {\rho = g_{\varphi } \cdot \bar{w}^{\varphi } }}} \right) $ , mean tree height $ \bar{H}\left( { = g_{\theta } \cdot \bar{w}^{\theta } } \right) $ , and mean aboveground mass density $ \bar{d}\left( { = g_{\delta } \cdot \bar{w}^{\delta } } \right) $ to mean aboveground mass $ \bar{w} $ hold. Using the model, the self-thinning line $ \left( {\bar{w} = K \cdot \rho^{ - \alpha } } \right) $ of overcrowded Kandelia obovata stands in Okinawa, Japan, was studied over 8?years. Mean tree height increased with increasing $ \bar{w} $ . The values of the allometric constant $ \theta $ and the multiplying factor $ g_{\theta } $ are 0.3857 and 2.157?m?kg^???, respectively. The allometric constant $ \delta $ and the multiplying factor $ g_{\delta } $ are ?0.01673 and 2.685?m^?3?kg^1???, respectively. The $ \delta $ value was not significantly different from zero, showing that $ \bar{d} $ remains constant regardless of any increase in $ \bar{w} $ . The average of $ \bar{d} $ , i.e., biomass density $ \left( {{{\bar{w} \cdot \rho } \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {{\bar{w} \cdot \rho } {\bar{H}}}} \right. \kern-0em} {\bar{H}}}} \right) $ , was 2.641?±?0.022?kg?m^?3, which was considerably higher than 1.3?C1.5?kg?m^?3 of most terrestrial forests. The self-thinning exponent $ \alpha \left( { = {1 \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {1 {\varphi = }}} \right. \kern-0em} {\varphi = }}{1 \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {1 {\left\{ {1 - \left( {\theta + \delta } \right)} \right\}}}} \right. \kern-0em} {\left\{ {1 - \left( {\theta + \delta } \right)} \right\}}}} \right) $ and the multiplying factor $ K\left( { = \left( {g_{\theta } \cdot g_{\delta } } \right)^{\alpha } } \right) $ were estimated to be 1.585 and 16.18?kg?m^?2??, respectively. The estimators $ \theta $ and $ \delta $ are dependent on each other. Therefore, the observed value of $ \theta + \delta $ cannot be used for the test of the hypothesis that the expectation of the estimator $ \theta + \delta $ equals 1/3, i.e., $ \alpha = {3 \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {3 2}} \right. \kern-0em} 2} $ , or 1/4, i.e., $ \alpha = {4 \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {4 3}} \right. \kern-0em} 3} $ . The $ \varphi $ value was 0.6310, which is the same as the reciprocal of the self-thinning exponent of 1.585, and was not significantly different from 2/3 (t?=?1.860, df?=?191, p?=?0.06429), i.e., $ \alpha = {3 \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {3 2}} \right. \kern-0em} 2} $ . Thus the self-thinning exponent is not significantly different from 3/2 based on the simple geometric model. On the other hand, the self-thinning exponent was significantly different from 3/4 (t?=?6.213, df?=?191, p?=?3.182?×?10^?9), i.e., $ \alpha = {4 \mathord{\left/ {\vphantom {4 3}} \right. \kern-0em} 3} $ . Therefore, the self-thinning exponent is significantly different from 4/3 based on the metabolic model.     

Leaf phenological traits and leaf longevity of three mangrove species (Rhizophoraceae) on Okinawa Island, Japan

Data on leaf phenological traits and longevity of mangroves are important for improved understanding of the adaptation strategies, growth, and productivity of these trees. We studied leaf phenological traits and longevity of Rhizophora stylosa, Bruguiera gymnorrhiza, and Kandelia obovata monthly from April 2008 to March 2009. Both tree sampling (direct observation) and litterfall (indirect observation) were used. All leaves and branches of each sample tree were numbered and marked with tags at the beginning of the experiment. Peaks of leaf recruitment and death occurred in July and June, respectively, for B. gymnorrhiza and K. obovata but both occurred in July for R. stylosa. Leaf recruitment for all the species was lowest in January; leaf death was minimum in December for R. stylosa and B. gymnorrhiza, and in January for K. obovata. Leaf recruitment for the three species was significantly correlated with monthly mean air temperature and monthly hours of sunshine. K. obovata and R. stylosa leaf death was correlated with monthly mean air temperature, monthly hours of sunshine, monthly mean air vapor pressure deficit, and monthly rainfall; B. gymnorrhiza leaf death was not correlated with any environmental factors. Specific leaf area for R. stylosa (45.4?±?1.0?cm²?g^?1) and K. obovata (48.6?±?0.8?cm²?g^?1) was not significantly different, but means for these two species were significantly different from that for B. gymnorrhiza (71.0?±?2.8?cm²?g^?1). Mean leaf longevity was 13.9?months for R. stylosa, 17.2?months for B. gymnorrhiza, and 12.1?months for K. obovata. Different measured variables between B. gymnorrhiza and the other two species may have been because of the growth strategy and shade tolerance of B. gymnorrhiza. Mean leaf longevity increased with increasing mean annual air temperature.     

Australian baby boomers switched to more environment friendly modes of transport during the global financial crisis

The global financial crisis (GFC) in 2008 rocked economies around the world. Several intermediate outcomes of the GFC included loss of jobs and reduced income. Relatively little research has, however, examined the impacts of the GFC on individual level travel behaviour change. To address this shortcoming, HABITAT panel data were employed to estimate a multinomial logit model to examine mode switching behaviour between 2007 and 2009 of a baby boomers cohort in Brisbane, Australia—a city within a developed country that has been on many metrics the least affected by the GFC. In addition, a Poisson regression model was estimated to model the number of trips made by individuals in 2007, 2008, and 2009. The South East Queensland travel survey datasets were used to develop this model. Four linear regression models were estimated to assess the effects of the GFC on time allocated to travel during a day: one for each of the three travel modes including public transport, active transport, less environmentally friendly transport; and an overall travel time model irrespective of mode. The results reveal that the baby boomers switched to more environmentally friendly travel modes during the GFC.     

Drought analysis and its implication in sustainable water resource management in Barind area,Bangladesh

The study analyzes drought using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Mann-Kendall (MK) Trend Test in the context of the impacts of drought on groundwater table (GWT) during the period 1971-2011 in the Barind area, Bangladesh. The area experienced twelve moderate to extreme agricultural droughts in the years 1972, 1975, 1979, 1982, 1986, 1989, 1992, 1994, 2003, 2005, 2009 and 2010. Some of them coincide with El Niño events. Hydrological drought also occurred almost in the same years. However, relationship between all drought events and El Niño is not clear. Southern and central parts of the area frequently suffer from hydrological drought, northern part is affected by agricultural drought. Trends in SPI values indicate that the area has an insignificant trend towards drought, and numbers of mild and moderate drought are increasing. GWT depth shows strong correlation with rainy season SPI values such that GWT regaining corresponds with rising SPI values and vice versa. However, 2000 onwards, GWT depth is continuously increasing even with positive SPI values. This is due to over-exploitation of groundwater and changes in cropping patterns. Agricultural practice in Barind area based on groundwater irrigation is vulnerable to drought. Hence, adaptation measures to minimize effects of drought on groundwater ought to be taken.     

Evaluating transport externalities of urban growth: a critical review of scenario-based planning methods

Urban growth is an important phenomenon, which is taking place on an unprecedented scale, and its impacts on society and the environment are evident. In theory, an evaluation of such urban growth through scenario-based planning helps planners to better assess the future impacts of growth and develop better policies and plans. Within this context, the assessment of transport impacts is particularly important as transport plays an important role in shaping urban growth. Additionally, transport sector alone is responsible for about one-third of the greenhouse gas emissions of cities, which has detrimental effects on the environment, economy, community health, and quality of life. In practice, however, scarce evidence exists outlining the challenges of scenario-based evaluation and how to best address these while modelling the transport impacts of various urban growth scenarios. This research addresses these gaps in the literature and assesses the effectiveness of scenario-based planning methods that are used for modelling the transport impacts of alternative urban growth scenarios. The methodological approach of the study consists of a critical review of the key literature and relevant methods that are commonly used to assess transport impacts. The results of this analysis highlight limitations of existing methods for effectively evaluating transport externalities of urban growth scenarios. The findings suggest that among many reviewed models, the ILUTE, URBANSIM and TRANUS simulation models are identified as significant ones. However, due to various limitations of the former two, TRANUS is noted as the most suitable one for evaluating the transport impacts of urban growth scenarios.