Estimating the expansion of urban areas and urban heat islands (UHI) in Ghana: a case study

Natural Hazards - This research is focused on identifying urban sprawl pattern and extent in two rapidly growing major Ghanaian cities (Accra and Kumasi) and how urban expansion affected heat...     

Impact of initialization procedures on the predictive skill of a coupled ocean–atmosphere model

The sensitivity of the predictive skill of a decadal climate prediction system is investigated with respect to details of the initialization procedure. For this purpose, the coupled ocean–atmosphere UCLA/MITgcm climate model is initialized using the following three different initialization approaches: full state initialization (FSI), anomaly initialization (AI) and FSI employing heat flux and freshwater flux corrections (FC). The ocean initial conditions are provided by the German contribution to Estimating the Circulation and Climate of the Ocean state estimate (GECCO project), from which ensembles of decadal hindcasts are initialized every 5 years from 1961 to 2001. The predictive skill for sea surface temperature (SST), sea surface height (SSH) and the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is assessed against the GECCO synthesis. In regions with a deep mixed layer the predictive skill for SST anomalies remains significant for up to a decade in the FC experiment. By contrast, FSI shows less persistent skill in the North Atlantic and AI does not show high skill in the extratropical Southern Hemisphere, but appears to be more skillful in the tropics. In the extratropics, the improved skill is related to the ability of the FC initialization method to better represent the mixed layer depth, and the highest skill occurs during wintertime. The correlation skill for the spatially averaged North Atlantic SSH hindcasts remains significant up to a decade only for FC. The North Atlantic MOC initialized hindcasts show high correlation values in the first pentad while correlation remains significant in the following pentad too for FSI and FC. Overall, for the current setup, the FC approach appears to lead to the best results, followed by the FSI and AI procedures.     

Comparing 2D capabilities of HEC-RAS and LISFLOOD-FP on complex topography

ABSTRACT

This study evaluates and compares two-dimensional (2D) numerical models of different complexities by testing them on a floodplain inundation event that occurred on the Secchia River (Italy). We test 2D capabilities of LISFLOOD-FP and HEC-RAS (5.0.3), implemented using various grid sizes (25–100 m) based on 1-m DEM resolution. As expected, the best results were shown by the higher-resolution grids (25 m) for both models, which is justified by the complex terrain of the area. However, the coarser resolution simulations (50 and 100 m) performed virtually identically compared to the high-resolution simulations. Nevertheless, the spatial distribution of flood characteristics varies: the 50 and 100 m results of LISFLOOD-FP and HEC-RAS misestimated flood extent and water depth in selected control areas (built-up zones). We suggest that the specific terrain of the area can cause ambiguities in large-scale modelling, while providing plausible results in terms of the overall model performance.     

Climate change impacts on runoff in the Ferghana Valley (Central Asia)

The main freshwater source of arid/semi-arid Central Asia is stored in its high mountain glaciers. Water for the downstream countries is mainly supplied through the Syrdarya River that originates at the confluence of the Naryn and Karadarya rivers in the Ferghana Valley. Runoff generation from glaciers plays a crucial role, although a considerable number of small tributaries supply the river with additional runoff from snowmelt and rain in the mountains surrounding the Ferghana Valley. Observations of rising air temperature and accelerated glacier shrinkage make it most likely that the relative contributions of the smaller tributaries will increase. Hitherto, assessments of climate change effects on the water resource availability have largely neglected the growing importance of the runoff from smaller tributaries. We used a dynamically downscaled A1B SRES scenario for climate change effects for the period 2071–2100 in relation to the reference period of 1971–2000 and a version of the conceptual hydrological Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning model (HBV-light) to estimate runoff contributions with particular respect to the small tributaries. The simulations showed a 12–42% decrease in summer runoff; and a 44–107% increase in winter-spring runoff. This indicates the hydrological regime is shifting towards a runoff from snowmelt earlier in the year. The study suggests that actions for climate change adaptation should be complemented by land management configured to secure optimal runoff supplement from the smaller catchments.