Comparison of results from several AOGCMs for global and regional sea-level change 1900–2100

 Sea-level rise is an important aspect of climate change because of its impact on society and ecosystems. Here we present an intercomparison of results from ten coupled atmosphere-ocean general circulation models (AOGCMs) for sea-level changes simulated for the twentieth century and projected to occur during the twenty first century in experiments following scenario IS92a for greenhouse gases and sulphate aerosols. The model results suggest that the rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion of sea water has increased during the twentieth century, but the small set of tide gauges with long records might not be adequate to detect this acceleration. The rate of sea-level rise due to thermal expansion continues to increase throughout the twenty first century, and the projected total is consequently larger than in the twentieth century; for 1990–2090 it amounts to 0.20–0.37 m. This wide range results from systematic uncertainty in modelling of climate change and of heat uptake by the ocean. The AOGCMs agree that sea-level rise is expected to be geographically non-uniform, with some regions experiencing as much as twice the global average, and others practically zero, but they do not agree about the geographical pattern. The lack of agreement indicates that we cannot currently have confidence in projections of local sea-level changes, and reveals a need for detailed analysis and intercomparison in order to understand and reduce the disagreements. Received: 1 September 2000 / Accepted: 20 April 2001     

Voracious planktonic hydroids: unexpected predatory impact on a coastal marine ecosystem

Hydroids are typically attached, benthic cnidarians that feed on a variety of small prey. During sampling on Georges Bank in spring 1994, we found huge numbers of hydroids suspended in the plankton. They fed on young stages of copepods that are an important prey for fish, as well as on young fish themselves. Two independent methods were used to estimate feeding rates of the hydroids; both indicate that the hydroids are capable of consuming from 50% to over 100% of the daily production of young copepods. These results suggest that hydroids can have a profound effect on the population dynamics of zooplankton and young fish on Georges Bank.     

Competition of NAO regime changes and increasing greenhouse gases and aerosols with respect to Arctic climate projections

Regional magnitudes and patterns of Arctic winter climate changes in consequence of regime changes of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) are analyzed using a regional atmospheric climate model. The regional model has been driven with data of positive and negative NAO phases from a control simulation as well as from a time-dependent greenhouse gas and aerosol scenario simulation. Both global model simulations include a quite realistic interannual variability of the NAO with pronounced decadal regime changes and no or rather weak long-term NAO trends. The results indicate that the effects of NAO regime changes on Arctic winter temperatures and precipitation are regionally significant over most of northwestern Eurasia and parts of Greenland. In this regard, mean winter temperature variations of up to 6 K may occur over northern Europe. Precipitation and synoptic variability are also regionally modified by NAO regime changes, but not as significantly as temperatures. However, the climate changes associated with the NAO are in some regions clearly stronger than those attributed to enhanced greenhouse gases and aerosols, indicating that projected global changes of the atmospheric composition and internal circulation changes are competing with each other in their importance for the Arctic climate evolution in the near future. The knowledge of the future NAO trend on decadal and longer time scales appears to be vitally important in terms of a regional assessment of climate scenarios for the Arctic.     

Macropores as preferential flow paths in meander bends

Macropores are subsurface connected void spaces caused by processes such as fracture of soils, micro‐erosion, and fauna burrows. They are common near streams (e.g. hyporheic and riparian zones) and may act as preferential flow paths between surface and groundwaters, affecting hydrologic and biogeochemical processes. We tested the hydrologic function of macropores by constructing an artificial macropore within the saturated zone of a meander bend (open macropore, ‘OM’) and later filling its upstream end (partially filled macropore, ‘PFM’). For each treatment, we injected saline tracer at an upgradient monitoring well within the meander and monitored downgradient hydraulics and tracer transport. Pressure transducers in monitoring wells indicated hydraulic gradients within the meander were 32% higher perpendicular to and 6% higher parallel to the macropore for the OM than for the PFM. Additionally, hydraulic conductivities measured via falling head tests were 29 to 550 times higher along the macropore than in nearby sediment. We used electrical conductivity probes in wells and electrical resistivity imaging to track solute transport. Transport velocities through the meander were on average 9 and 21% higher (per temporal moment analysis and observed tracer peak, respectively) for the OM than for the PFM. Furthermore, temporal moments of tracer breakthrough analysis indicated downgradient longitudinal dispersion and breakthrough tracer curve tailing were on average 234% and 182% higher for the OM, respectively. This suggests the OM enabled solute transport at overall shorter timescales than the matrix but also increased tailing. Our results demonstrate the importance of macropores to meander bend hydrology and solute transport. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Electrical resistivity imaging of hydrologic flow through surface coal mine valley fills with comparison to other landforms

Surface coal mining has altered land cover, near‐surface geologic structure, and hydrologic processes of large areas in central Appalachia, USA. These alterations are associated with changes in water quality such as elevated total‐dissolved solids, which is usually measured via its surrogate, specific conductance (SC). The SC of valley fill effluent streams is a function of fill construction methods, materials, and age; yet hydrologic studies that relate these variables to water quality are sparse due to the difficulty of conducting traditional hydrologic studies in mined landscapes. We used electrical resistivity imaging (ERI) to visualize the subsurface geologic structure and hydrologic flow paths within a valley fill. ERI is a noninvasive geophysical technique that maps spatiotemporal changes in resistivity of the subsurface. We paired ERI with artificial rainfall experiments to track infiltrated water as it moved through the valley fill. Results indicate that ERI can be used to identify subsurface geologic structure and track advancing wetting fronts or preferential flow paths. Our results suggest that the upper portion of the fill contains significant fines, whereas the deeper profile is primarily large rocks and void spaces. Water tended to pond on the surface of compacted areas until it reached preferential flow paths, where it appeared to infiltrate quickly down to >15 m depth in 75 min. ERI applications can improve understanding of how fill construction techniques influence subsurface water movement, and in turn may aid in the development of valley fill construction methods to reduce water quality effects.     

Transverse baroclinic oscillations in Lake Überlingen

An episode of velocity measurements in the epilimnion at a midlake station in Lake Überlingen and taken from the campaign in October 1972 discloses a uni-nodal Poincaré-type baroclinic mode response with a 4 h period. We discuss the data and interpret it in terms of a two-layered linear wave model on the rotating Earth.

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Design and performance of a new cloud microphysics scheme developed for the ECHAM general circulation model

A new cloud microphysics scheme including a prognostic treatment of cloud ice (PCI) is developed to yield a more physically based representation of the components of the atmospheric moisture budget in the general circulation model ECHAM. The new approach considers cloud water and cloud ice as separate prognostic variables. The precipitation formation scheme for warm clouds distinguishes between maritime and continental clouds by considering the cloud droplet number concentration, in addition to the liquid water content. Based on several observational data sets, the cloud droplet number concentration is derived from the sulfate aerosol mass concentration as given from the sulfur cycle simulated by ECHAM. Results obtained with the new scheme are compared to satellite observations and in situ measurements of cloud physical and radiative properties. In general, the standard model ECHAM4 and also PCI capture the overall features, and the simulated results usually lie within the range of observed uncertainty. As compared to ECHAM4, only slight improvements are achieved with the new scheme. For example, the overestimated liquid water path and total cloud cover over convectively active regions are reduced in PCI. On the other hand, some shortcomings of the standard model such as underestimated shortwave cloud forcing over the extratropical oceans of the respective summer hemisphere are more pronounced in PCI.This paper was presented at the Third International Conference on Modelling of Global Climate Change and Variability, held in Hamburg 4–9 Sept. 1995 under the auspices of the Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg. Editor for these papers is L. Dümenil.     

Climate predictability experiments with a general circulation model

The atmospheric response to the evolution of the global sea surface temperatures from 1979 to 1992 is studied using the Max-Planck-Institut 19 level atmospheric general circulation model, ECHAM3 at T 42 resolution. Five separate 14-year integrations are performed and results are presented for each individual realization and for the ensemble-averaged response. The results are compared to a 30-year control integration using a climate monthly mean state of the sea surface temperatures and to analysis data. It is found that the ECHAM3 model, by and large, does reproduce the observed response pattern to El Nino and La Niña. During the El Nino events, the subtropical jet streams in both hemispheres are intensified and displaced equatorward, and there is a tendency towards weak upper easterlies over the equator. The Southern Oscillation is a very stable feature of the integrations and is accurately reproduced in all experiments. The inter-annual variability at middle- and high-latitudes, on the other hand, is strongly dominated by chaotic dynamics, and the tropical SST forcing only modulates the atmospheric circulation. The potential predictability of the model is investigated for six different regions. Signal to noise ratio is large in most parts of the tropical belt, of medium strength in the western hemisphere and generally small over the European area. The ENSO signal is most pronounced during the boreal spring. A particularly strong signal in the precipitation field in the extratropics during spring can be found over the southern United States. Western Canada is normally warmer during the warm ENSO phase, while northern Europe is warmer than normal during the ENSO cold phase. The reason is advection of warm air due to a more intense Pacific low than normal during the warm ENSO phase and a more intense Icelandic low than normal during the cold ENSO phase, respectively.