Numerical model for quantitative precipitation forecasting

Summary A numerical model for the quantitative precipitation forecasting has been formulated. In this model precipitation is computed as a function of the vertical velocity and humidity distribution in the atmosphere. The orographic influence on the vertical velocity was taken into consideration. Further, the relation between vertical velocity and static stability of the atmosphere has been considered and, as an important factor in the condensation process, was introduced into the equation of the model. This numerical model for the precipitation forecasting has been applied in the North Adriactic Sea region, which is characterized by a strong vertical gradient of the specific humidity and pronounced orographic influence. The results achieved show that this model could successfully be used as an objective method in the routine forecasting of the amount of precipitation.     

Hydraulic Effects of Shales in Fluvial-Deltaic Deposits: Ground-Penetrating Radar, Outcrop Observations, Geostatistics, and Three-Dimensional Flow Modeling for the Ferron Sandstone, Utah

Ground-penetrating radar (GPR) surveys, outcrop measurements, and cores provide a high-resolution 3D geologic model to investigate the hydraulic effects of shales in marine-influenced lower delta-plain distributary channel deposits within the Cretaceous-age Ferron Sandstone at Corbula Gulch in central Utah, USA. Shale statistics are computed from outcrop observations. Although slight anisotropy was observed in mean length and variogram ranges parallel and perpendicular to pale of low , the anisotropy is not statistically significant and the estimated mean length is 5.4 m. Truncated Gaussian simulation was used to create maps of shales that are placed on variably dipping stratigraphic surfaces interpreted from high-resolution 3D GPR surveys, outcrop interpretations, and boreholes. Sandstone permeability is estimated from radar responses calibrated to permeability measurements from core samples. Experimentally designed flow simulations examine the effects of variogram range, shale coverage fraction, and trends in shale coverage on predicted upscaled permeability, breakthrough time, and sweep efficiency. Approximately 1500 flow simulations examine three different geologic models, flow in the 3 coordinate directions, 16 geostatistical parameter combinations, and 10 realizations for each model. ANOVA and response models computed from the flow simulations demonstrate that shales decrease sweep, recovery, and permeability, especially in the vertical direction. The effect on horizontal flow is smaller. Flow predictions for ideal tracer displacements at Corbula Gulch are sensitive to shale-coverage fraction, but are relatively insensitive to twofold variations in variogram range or to vertical trends in shale coverage. Although the hydraulic effects of shale are statistically significant, the changes in flow responses rarely exceed 20%. As a result, it may be reasonable to use simple models when incorporating analogous shales into models of reservoirs or aquifers.     

Chemical Mechanism Development: Laboratory Studies and Model Applications

Within the German Tropospheric Research Programme (TFS) numerous kinetic and mechanistic studies on the tropospheric reaction/degradation of the following reactants were carried out: oxygenated VOC, aromatic VOC, biogenic VOC, short-lived intermediates, such as alkoxy and alkylperoxy radicals.At the conception of the projects these selected groups were classes of VOC or intermediates for which the atmospheric oxidation mechanisms were either poorly characterised or totally unknown. The motivation for these studies was the attainment of significant improvements in our understanding of the atmospheric chemical oxidation processes of these compounds, particularly with respect to their involvement in photooxidant formation in the troposphere. In the present paper the types of experimental investigations performed and the results obtained within the various projects are briefly summarised. The major achievements are highlighted and discussed in terms of their contribution to improving our understanding of the chemical processes controlling photosmog formation in the troposphere.     

On forecasting of cyclogenesis in the West Mediterranean and other areas bounded by mountain ranges by baroclinic model

Summary Changes occurring in the thermal structure of air masses in the Alps area and the West Mediterranean region, during cyclonic developments in the Gulf of Genoa, have been considered. The effect of the height and the form of the mountain ranges as well as that of the nonadiabatic processes, on the deformation of the thickness pattern, have been discussed. These factors have been further taken into consideration for a modification of the equations used inEstoque's method for the baroclinic model, and a new method has been developed for forecasting cyclogenesis in regions bounded by mountain ranges.

---

Zusasmmenfassung Es werden die Änderungen der thermischen Struktur der Luftmassen im Alpengebiet und im westlichen Mittelmeerraum bei der Entwicklung von Zyklonen im Golf von Genua aufgezeigt und die Einflüsse von Höhe und Form der Gebirgszüge sowie von nichtadiabatischen Vorgängen auf die Deformation der relativen Topographie besprochen. Diese Faktoren werden auch zur Modifikation der in der Methode vonEstoque für ein baroklines Modell verwendeten Gleichungen in Betracht gezogen und damit wird eine neue Methode zur Vorhersage der Zyklogenese unter dem Einfluß von Gebirgszügen entwickelt.

---

Résumé On expose dans ce mémoire à quelles modifications la structure thermique des masses d'air est soumise dans la région des Alpes et dans le bassin occidental de la Méditerranée lors du développement de dépressions sur le Golfe de Gênes. On y discute en outre l'influence de la hauteur et de la forme des chaînes de montagnes ainsi que celle des processus non-adiabatiques sur des déformations de la topographie relative. Tous ces éléments sont pris en considération pour leur adapter les équations utilisées dans le modèle baroclined'Estoque. Par là, on accède à une nouvelle méthode de prévision de la cyclogénèse, méthode qui tient compte de l'influence des chaînes de montagnes.

---

---

With 5 Figures     

Criteria for heat and cold wave duration indexes

Many areas of society are susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. Without an adequate definition of what constitutes heat and cold waves, it is impossible to assess either their changes in the past or their possible consequences for the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommended criteria for heat wave duration indexes based on two arbitrarily defined constants. The principal weakness of this approach is that it does not yield comparable results for different geographical locations. This paper remedies the current lack of a meteorologically based definition of heat and cold waves and offers a preliminary test of its performance. Having previously shown that maximum daily temperature values follow normal frequency distribution, we derive statistical thresholds (e.g., below and above normal) from that distribution. These thresholds are thus climate specific and their change can be compared across geographical locations. These criteria are then tested on the homogeneous time series of maximum daily temperature observed for the period 1961–2008 with respect to three different geographical locations. The results obtained show an increase in the frequency of heat waves for the period 1991–2008 in comparison with the normal climatological period 1961–1990.     

Some evidence on European monsoon existence

Large-scale European atmospheric circulation induced by temperature differences between the continent and the North Atlantic Ocean causes thermodynamic and climatic conditions that initiate a European monsoon. In Eastern Europe, the rainy season occurs in early summer, and the dry season occurs in winter. In Western Europe, the rainy season is in the early winter and the dry season is in the spring. This precipitation trend, as well as other climatic features, suggests the existence of a European monsoon.     

Deficit and surplus of precipitation as a continuous function of time

The quantitative measure of drought is a complex problem. A common factor in all types of drought is that they originate from a deficiency of precipitation. The difference between the real and potentially expected daily precipitation amount is what we have used to define the continuous function of daily deficit and surplus of precipitation (DSP). We have also defined the monthly and yearly DSP. We tested the precipitation data series for the normal climatic period 1961–1990 observed at the Meteorological Observatory of Belgrade. The DSP considers that the intensity of drought during the current period is dependent upon the current precipitation plus the cumulative precipitation of the previous period. When applied to longer periods, this function denotes dry and wet periods.     

Statistical analysis of daily maximum and monthly precipitation at Belgrade

Summary  A statistical analysis of monthly mean and daily maximum precipitation at Belgrade during the period 1888–1995 is presented. A very high correlation coefficient exists between the monthly and daily maximum precipitation. Weather types that are associated with the maximum daily precipitation at Belgrade are also analysed. Received July 19, 1999 Revised December 25, 1999     

Cyclonic activity in Yugoslavia and surrounding areas

Summary A precise statistics of the cyclones in Yugoslavia and surrounding areas for the period 1951–1960 has been made. By that statistics eight different cyclogenetic regions in South Europe have been identified. They are: the Gulf of Genoa, the Tyrrhenian Sea, the Northern Adriatic, the Southern Adriatic, the Aegean Sea, the Black Sea, the Panonean Lowland and the Walachian Plain. Further, some features of cyclonic activity in the cyclogenetic regions such as the frequency of cyclogenesis, as well as the distribution, the duration and the intensity of cyclones have been discussed.

---

Zusammenfassung Es werden die Ergebnisse einer eingehenden Statistik der in den Jahren 1951 bis 1960 in Jugoslawien und in den angrenzenden Gebieten aufgetretenen Zyklonen mitgeteilt. Daraus können acht verschiedene zyklogenetische Regionen in Südeuropa unterschieden werden. Es sind dies der Golf von Genua, das Thyrrhenische Meer, die nördliche Adria, die südliche Adria, das Ägäische Meer, das Schwarze Meer, das Pannonische Tiefland und die Walachische Ebene. Ferner wird als Kennzeichen der Zyklonenaktivität in den erwähnten Gebieten die Häufigkeit der Zyklogenese und die Verteilung, die Dauer und die Intensität der Zyklonen diskutiert.

---

Résumé On communique le résultat d'une étude statistique complète des dépressions ayant évolué sur la Yougoslavie et les pays circonvoisins entre 1951 et 1960. De cette étude, on peut déterminer huit régions de l'Europe méridionale spécialement favorables à la cyclogénèse. Il s'agit du Golfe de Gênes, de la Mer Tyrrhénienne, du nord de l'Adriatique, du sud de l'Adriatique, de la Mer Egée, de la Mer Noire ainsi que des deux plaines de Pannonie et de Valachie. On discute enfin, comme critères de l'activité dépressionnaire dans ces régions, la fréquence des cyclogénèses ainsi que la répartition, la durée et l'intensité des dépressions.

---

---

With 12 Figures