Global distribution of the intensity and frequency of hourly precipitation and their responses to ENSO

Climate Dynamics - We investigate the global distribution of hourly precipitation and its connections with the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) using both satellite precipitation...     

A multi-model ensemble of downscaled spatial climate change scenarios for the Dommel catchment, Western Europe

Regional or local scale hydrological impact studies require high resolution climate change scenarios which should incorporate some assessment of uncertainties in future climate projections. This paper describes a method used to produce a multi-model ensemble of multivariate weather simulations including spatial–temporal rainfall scenarios and single-site temperature and potential evapotranspiration scenarios for hydrological impact assessment in the Dommel catchment (1,350 km²) in The Netherlands and Belgium. A multi-site stochastic rainfall model combined with a rainfall conditioned weather generator have been used for the first time with the change factor approach to downscale projections of change derived from eight Regional Climate Model (RCM) experiments for the SRES A2 emission scenario for the period 2071–2100. For winter, all downscaled scenarios show an increase in mean daily precipitation (catchment average change of +9% to +40%) and typically an increase in the proportion of wet days, while for summer a decrease in mean daily precipitation (−16% to −57%) and proportion of wet days is projected. The range of projected mean temperature is 7.7°C to 9.1°C for winter and 19.9°C to 23.3°C for summer, relative to means for the control period (1961–1990) of 3.8°C and 16.8°C, respectively. Mean annual potential evapotranspiration is projected to increase by between +17% and +36%. The magnitude and seasonal distribution of changes in the downscaled climate change projections are strongly influenced by the General Circulation Model (GCM) providing boundary conditions for the RCM experiments. Therefore, a multi-model ensemble of climate change scenarios based on different RCMs and GCMs provides more robust estimates of precipitation, temperature and evapotranspiration for hydrological impact assessments, at both regional and local scale.     

Archaean crustal growth through successive partial melting events in an oceanic plateau‐like setting in the Tanzania Craton

The detrital zircon population in quartzitic conglomerates from the northern Tanzania Craton yield ages between 2640 Ma and 2790 Ma which includes most of the igneous history from this part of the craton. The igneous evolution is characterised by mafic volcanism with an oceanic plateau‐like geochemical signature at ~2800 Ma followed by diorite and tonalite–trondhjemite–granodiorite dominated magmatism between 2790 and 2700 Ma, which transitioned into more evolved high‐K magmatism between 2700 and 2620 Ma. The ε_Hf values of the detrital zircons range from +2.4 to ?1.4 and change with time from radiogenic Hf pre‐2700 Ma (98% positive ε_Hf) to unradiogenic Hf post‐2700 Ma (41% positive ε_Hf). The petrological progression from mafic to felsic crust is reflected in the detrital age distribution and Hf isotopes and is consistent with juvenile mafic crust slowly maturing into more evolved felsic crust through a series of successive partial melting events in an oceanic‐plateau‐like environment.     

Assessment of a Sr isotope vital effect (87Sr/86Sr) in marine taxa from Lee Stocking Island, Bahamas

 Data from Lee Stocking Island, Bahamas, confirms the hypothesis that there are no vital effects with the uptake of Sr isotopes (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr) at the present mass spectrometer resolution [±2×10^-5 (2σ)]. Our data set contains analyses of 40 samples derived from 37 different calcareous taxa inhabiting a wide range of carbonate subenvironments (i.e., reefal, intertidal, supratidal, mangrove). The mean value of our analyses was 0.709179 with a standard deviation of 2.4×10^-5 (2σ) which was very close to the long-term uncertainty of the strontium isotope methodology [±2.0×10^-5 (2σ)] and to the widely reported ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr value of seawater, which clusters around 0.709175. Received: 14 October 1997 / Revision received: 20 March 1998     

The impact of climate change on extreme precipitation in Sicily,Italy

Increasing precipitation extremes are one of the possible consequences of a warmer climate. These may exceed the capacity of urban drainage systems, and thus impact the urban environment. Because short‐duration precipitation events are primarily responsible for flooding in urban systems, it is important to assess the response of extreme precipitation at hourly (or sub‐hourly) scales to a warming climate. This study aims to evaluate the projected changes in extreme rainfall events across the region of Sicily (Italy) and, for two urban areas, to assess possible changes in Depth‐Duration‐Frequency (DDF) curves. We used Regional Climate Model outputs from Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment for Europe area ensemble simulations at a ~12 km spatial resolution, for the current period and 2 future horizons under the Representative Concentration Pathways 8.5 scenario. Extreme events at the daily scale were first investigated by comparing the quantiles estimated from rain gauge observations and Regional Climate Model outputs. Second, we implemented a temporal downscaling approach to estimate rainfall for sub‐daily durations from the modelled daily precipitation, and, lastly, we analysed future projections at daily and sub‐daily scales. A frequency distribution was fitted to annual maxima time series for the sub‐daily durations to derive the DDF curves for 2 future time horizons and the 2 urban areas. The overall results showed a raising of the growth curves for the future horizons, indicating an increase in the intensity of extreme precipitation, especially for the shortest durations. The DDF curves highlight a general increase of extreme quantiles for the 2 urban areas, thus underlining the risk of failure of the existing urban drainage systems under more severe events.     

Cataclasis and processes of particle size reduction

The particle size distribution (P.S.D.) of fragmented geological materials is affected by the fragmentation process, initial size distribution, number of fracturing events, energy input, strain, and confining pressure. A summary of literature shows that the fractal dimension (D) of the P.S.D. is increased by the number of fracturing events, energy input, strain, and confining pressure. Cenozoic cataclasis of granite, granodiorites, gneisses and arkose seen in cores from the Cajon Pass drillhole, southern California, produced P.S.D.s with values ofD that varied from 1.88 to 3.08. Each rock type has a characteristic and more limited range ofD. Areas of dilatant texture and modeI fracture-fillings have low average values (2.32 and 2.37) compared to an average value of 2.67 in shear fracture-fillingsD has a good inverse correlation with average particle size. Data from fault rocks in the San Gabriel fault zone, southern California (Anderson et al., 1983) have been reanalyzed to show that values ofD are higher (2.10–5.52) and average particle size is lower than the Cajon Pass samples, but the ranges of values overlap, and the inverse correlation betweenD and average particle size is extended. Microstructural observations combined with these results suggest that three processes contributed to particle size reduction during cataclasis. The first process of feldspar alteration, which leads to low values ofD, has not been previously recognized. The second process is probably constrained comminution (Sammis et al., 1987), since the averageD in shear fracture-fillings is close to the value of 2.58 predicted by this theory. A further stage of particle size reduction is demonstrated by an increase ofD with cataclasis. This third process is selective fracture of larger particles, which may also operate during localization and the cataclastic flow-to-faulting transition as observed in experiments. A transition from constrained comminution to selective fracture of large particles, and increasingD values with cataclastic evolution and grain size reduction, may be general features of experimental and natural cataclasis.     

Gold mineralization in the Mazowe area, Harare-Bindura-Shamva greenstone belt, Zimbabwe: I. Tectonic controls on mineralization

The Mazowe group of mines (principal mines Mazowe, Bernheim and Stori's Golden Shaft) is situated within the Harare-Bindura-Shamva greenstone belt of the Zimbabwean Archaean craton, west of the Chinamora batholith. Gold mineralization in the form of quartz (±sulfide) reefs is structurally controlled in reverse shear zones that dip moderately north at Mazowe mine, and conjugate steep strike-slip shear zones striking WNW (dextral) and NE (sinistral) at Bernheim and Stori's Golden Shaft mines. The syn-mineralization deformation (D2/3) in all the mines has a northerly shortening direction. This deformation is compatible with the regional late Archaean D2/3 event, which agrees with late Archaean ages determined for the host rocks and for the mineralization. The mineralization cannot be related to any major regional scale shear zones, and it is incompatible with strains related to the intrusion of either the Chinamora batholith or internal granitoid suites. These observations show that significant gold deposits can form in relatively minor deformation events, unrelated to either major shear zones or granitoid intrusions. Received: 30 September 1998 / Accepted: 16 August 1999     

Calcium isotope record of Phanerozoic oceans: Implications for chemical evolution of seawater and its causative mechanisms

A total of 280 brachiopods of Ordovician to Cretaceous age, complemented by published data from belemnites and planktonic foraminifera, are used to reconstruct the evolution of calcium isotope composition of seawater (δ^44/40Ca_SW) over the Phanerozoic. The compiled δ^44/40Ca_SW record shows a general increase from ∼1.3‰ (NIST SRM 915a) at the beginning of the Ordovician to ∼2‰ at present. Superimposed on this trend is a major long-term positive excursion from the Early Carboniferous to Early Permian as well as several short-term, mostly negative, oscillations.A numerical model of the global cycles of calcium, carbon, magnesium and strontium was used to estimate whether the recorded δ^44/40Ca_SW variations can be explained by varying magnitudes of input and output fluxes of calcium to the oceans. The model uses the record of marine ⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ratios as proxy for seafloor spreading rates, a record of oceanic Mg/Ca ratios to estimate rates of dolomite formation, and reconstructed atmospheric CO₂, discharge and erosion rates to estimate continental weathering fluxes.The model results indicate that varying magnitudes of the calcium input and output fluxes cannot explain the observed δ^44/40Ca_SW trends, suggesting that the isotope signatures of these fluxes must also have changed. As a possible mechanism we suggest variable isotope fractionation in the sedimentary output flux controlled by the dominant mineralogy in marine carbonate deposits, i.e. the oscillating ‘calcite-aragonite seas’. The ultimate control of the calcium isotope budget of the Phanerozoic oceans appears to have been tectonic processes, specifically variable rates of oceanic crust production that modulated the hydrothermal calcium flux and the oceanic Mg/Ca ratio, which in turn controlled the dominant mineralogy of marine carbonates, hence the δ^44/40Ca_SW. As to the causes of the short-term oscillations recorded in the secular δ^44/40Ca_SW trend, we tentatively propose that these are related to variable rates of dolomite formation and/or to changing chemical composition of the riverine flux, in particular and ratios, induced by variable proportions of silicate vs. carbonate weathering rates on the continents.     

Southern African topography and erosion history: plumes or plate tectonics?

The physiography of southern Africa comprises a narrow coastal plain, separated from an inland plateau by a horseshoe-shaped escarpment. The interior of the inland plateau is a sedimentary basin. The drainage network of southern Africa is characterized by three river divides, broadly parallel to the coastline. These features contrast strongly with the broad dome and radial drainage patterns predicted by models which ascribe the physiography of southern Africa to uplift over a deep mantle plume. The drainage divides are interpreted as axes of epeirogenic uplift. The ages of these axes, which young from the margin to the interior, correlate closely with major reorganizations of spreading regimes in the oceanic ridges surrounding southern Africa, suggesting an origin from stresses related to plate motion. Successive epeirogenic uplifts of southern Africa on the axes, forming the major river divides, initiated cyclic episodes of denudation, which are coeval with erosion surfaces recognized elsewhere across Africa.