Estimation of maximum magnitude (M max ): Impending large earthquakes in northeast region,India

In the present study, the cumulative seismic energy released by earthquakes (M _w ≥ 5) for a period of 1897 to 2009 is analyzed for northeast (NE) India. For this purpose, a homogenized earthquake catalogue in moment magnitude (M _w ) has been prepared. Based on the geology, tectonics and seismicity, the study region is divided into three source zones namely, 1: Arakan-Yoma Zone (AYZ), 2: Himalayan Zone (HZ) and 3: Shillong Plateau Zone (SPZ). The maximum magnitude (M _max ) for each source zone is estimated using Tsuboi’s energy blocked model. As per the energy blocked model, the supply of energy for potential earthquakes in an area is remarkably uniform with respect to time and the difference between the supply energy and cumulative energy released for a span of time, is a good indicator of energy blocked and can be utilized for the estimation of maximum magnitude (M _max ) earthquakes. The proposed process provides a more consistent model of gradual accumulation of strain and non-uniform release through large earthquakes can be applied in the assessment of seismic hazard. Energy blocked for source zone 1, zone 2 and zone 3 regions is 1.35×10¹⁷ Joules, 4.25×10¹⁷ Joules and 7.25×10¹⁷ Joules respectively and will act as a supply for potential earthquakes in due course of time. The estimated M _max for each source zone AYZ, HZ, and SPZ are 8.2, 8.6, and 8.7 respectively. M _max obtained from this model is well comparable with the results of previous workers from NE region.     

Downscaling future climate change projections over Puerto Rico using a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model

We present results from 20-year “high-resolution” regional climate model simulations of precipitation change for the sub-tropical island of Puerto Rico. The Japanese Meteorological Agency Non-Hydrostatic Model (NHM) operating at a 2-km grid resolution is nested inside the Regional Spectral Model (RSM) at 10-km grid resolution, which in turn is forced at the lateral boundaries by the Community Climate System Model (CCSM4). At this resolution, the climate change experiment allows for deep convection in model integrations, which is an important consideration for sub-tropical regions in general, and on islands with steep precipitation gradients in particular that strongly influence local ecological processes and the provision of ecosystem services. Projected precipitation change for this region of the Caribbean is simulated for the mid-twenty-first century (2041–2060) under the RCP8.5 climate-forcing scenario relative to the late twentieth century (1986–2005). The results show that by the mid-twenty-first century, there is an overall rainfall reduction over the island for all seasons compared to the recent climate but with diminished mid-summer drought (MSD) in the northwestern parts of the island. Importantly, extreme rainfall events on sub-daily and daily time scales also become slightly less frequent in the projected mid-twenty-first-century climate over most regions of the island.     

Geochemical processes regulating groundwater chemistry with special reference to nitrate and fluoride enrichment in Chhatarpur area, Madhya Pradesh, India

The present study focuses on the hydrogeochemical composition of groundwater in Chhatarpur area with special focus on nitrate and fluoride contamination, considering the fact that groundwater is the only major source of drinking water here. Carbonate and silicate mineral weathering followed by ground water–surface water interactions, ion exchange and anthropogenic activities are mainly responsible for high concentrations of cations and anions in the groundwater in the region. The average concentration of nitrate and fluoride found in 27 samples is 1.08 and 61.4 mg/L, respectively. Nitrate enrichment mainly occurs in areas occupied with intense fertilizer practice in agricultural fields. Since the area is not dominated by industrialization, the possibility of anthropogenic input of fluoride is almost negligible, thus the enrichment of fluoride in groundwater is only possible due to rock–water interaction. The highly alkaline conditions, which favor the fluorite dissolution, are the main process responsible for high concentration of fluoride.     

Landslide hazard zonation using analytical hierarchy process along National Highway-3 in mid Himalayas of Himachal Pradesh,India

Landslide zonation studies emphasize on preparation of landslide hazard zonation maps considering major instability factors contributing to occurrence of landslides. This paper deals with geographic information system-based landslide hazard zonation in mid Himalayas of Himachal Pradesh from Mandi to Kullu by considering nine relevant instability factors to develop the hazard zonation map. Analytical hierarchy process was applied to assign relative weightages over all ranges of instability factors of the slopes in study area. To generate landslide hazard zonation map, layers in geographic information system were created corresponding to each instability factor. An inventory of existing major landslides in the study area was prepared and combined with the landslide hazard zonation map for validation purpose. The validation of the model was made using area under curve technique and reveals good agreement between the produced hazard map and previous landslide inventory with prediction accuracy of 79.08%. The landslide hazard zonation map was classified by natural break classifier into very low hazard, low hazard, moderate hazard, high hazard and very high landslide hazard classes in geographic information system depending upon the frequency of occurrence of landslides in each class. The resultant hazard zonation map shows that 14.30% of the area lies in very high hazard zone followed by 15.97% in high hazard zone. The proposed model provides the best-fit classification using hierarchical approach for the causative factors of landslides having complex structure. The developed hazard zonation map is useful for landslide preparedness, land-use planning, and social-economic and sustainable development of the region.     

Accumulation of Heavy Metals by Chickpea Grown in Fly Ash Treated Soil: Effect on Antioxidants

Chickpea grown in fly ash (FA) treated soil (25, 50, and 100% FA) was used to evaluate the effect of FA on antioxidants, metal concentration (Fe, Zn, Cu, Cr, and Cd), photosynthetic pigments (chlorophyll a (chl‐a), chlorophyll b (chl‐b), total chlorophyll (total chl), and carotenoids), growth and yield performance. All antioxidants in roots, shoots and leaves of chickpea increase with increasing FA doses to combat FA stress. The activities of antioxidants were more in the root tissues to cope with stress induced in the plants as compared to shoot and leaf. Concentration of metals was found maximum in roots than the shoots and seeds. The highest concentration of Fe and lowest level of Cd were recorded in all treatments of FA for different parts of the plant. The treated crop showed reduced level of chlorophyll but enhanced level of carotenoids and protein. However, root length, number of nodules and biomass in 25 and 50% FA treatments did not differ significantly in comparison to respective control plants. These results suggest that heavy metals of FA causes oxidative stress in this crop and the antioxidant enzymes could help a pivotal role against oxidative injury.     

Site-Specific Modeling of SH and P-SV Waves for Microzonation Study of Kolkata Metropolitan City, India

Kolkata, one of the oldest cities of India, is situated over the thick alluvium of the Bengal Basin, where it lies at the boundary of the zone III and zone IV of the seismic zonation map of India. An example of the study of site effects of the metropolitan Kolkata is presented based on theoretical modeling. Full synthetic strong motion waveforms have been computed using a hybrid method that combines the modal summation and finite difference techniques. The 1964 Calcutta earthquake, which was located at the southern part of Kolkata, is taken as the source region, with the focal mechanism parameters of dip?=?32°, strike?=?232° and rake?=?56°. Four profiles are considered for the computation of the synthetic seismograms from which the maximum ground acceleration (A _MAX) is obtained. Response spectra ratios (RSR) are then computed using a bedrock reference model to estimate local amplifications effects. The A _MAX varies from 0.05 to 0.17?g and the comparison of the A _MAX with the different intensity scales (MM, MSK, RF and MCS) shows that the expected intensity is in the range from VII to X (MCS) for an earthquake of magnitude 6.5 at an epicentral distance of about 100?km. This theoretical result matches with the empirical (historical and recent) intensity observations in Kolkata. The RSR, as a function of frequency, reaches the largest values (largest amplification) in the frequency range from 1.0 to 2.0?Hz. The largest site amplification is observed at the top of loose soil.     

Local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon

This paper introduces an objective definition of local onset and demise of the Indian summer monsoon (ISM) at the native grid of the Indian Meteorological Department’s rainfall analysis based on more than 100 years of rain gauge observations. The variability of the local onset/demise of the ISM is shown to be closely associated with the All India averaged rainfall onset/demise. This association is consistent with the corresponding evolution of the slow large-scale reversals of upper air and ocean variables that raise the hope of predictability of local onset and demise of the ISM. The local onset/demise of the ISM also show robust internannual variations associated with El Nino and the Southern Oscillation and Indian Ocean dipole mode. It is also shown that the early monsoon rains over northeast India has a predictive potential for the following seasonal anomalies of rainfall and seasonal length of the monsoon over rest of India.