大兴安岭地区初霜冻分析与预测

大兴安岭地处高纬度地区,农业生产对无霜期的依赖性很大,初霜早晚直接影响农业生产,对初霜的分析与预测具有非常重要的意义。本文利用1997-2021年大兴安岭地区7个国家站资料,采用气候统计方法,分析初霜日时空分布、变化特征;用天气学原理方法对2021年高、低空实况图、EC细网格预报图的分析,总结气象要素阈值,预测初霜;用Mann-Kendall方法对大兴安岭地区初霜日进行检验。结果表明:2021年大兴安岭地区平均初霜日在9月18日,比历年平均初霜日偏晚7 d,其中漠河站偏晚14 d,北极村站只偏晚1 d。大兴安岭北部地区比南部地区初霜日偏早,非沿江地区比沿江地区初霜日偏早;14时气温和露点温度、EC细网格地表温度、2 m露点温度、24 h变温、零度层高度预报图,对预报未来24 h、48 h初霜冻有很好的指示意义;大兴安岭地区1997-2020年初霜日突变时间在2012年,初霜日突变后较突变前平均推迟了5 d。     

2009年黑龙江上游开江期冰坝凌汛的分析与预测

冰坝凌汛是在特定的气象、地理和水文条件下形成的。本文利用气象和水文等资料,分析预测了2009年黑龙江上游漠河、呼玛江段开江日期,取得了很好的效果。选取与开江时间预报密切相关的气象因子,采用多元统计回归方法,建立黑龙江上游漠河、呼玛江段开江日期预报模型,经检验回归显著,并对2004~2009年开江日期进行试报。     

Characteristics analysis of extremely cold weather in the Greater Khingan Mountains region北大核心CSCD

Extremely cold weather has an important influence on winter production and life in the Greater Khingan Mountains region. This paper uses the daily minimum temperature data of ground observation stations during extreme cold weather from 1974 to 2021 in the Greater Khingan Mountains region, monthly circulation index data, the spatial distribution and temporal variation characteristics of extreme cold days and extreme minimum temperature were analyzed by climate statistical method; The abrupt changes and periods of extreme cold days and extreme minimum temperature were tested by Mann-Kendall method and Morlet wavelet analysis; calculating the recurrence period of extreme minimum temperature by empirical frequency method; correlation method was used to analyze the circulation factors which had significant influence on the number of extremely cold days. The results are followed: (1) The spatial distribution of extreme cold days in the Greater Khingan Mountains region was not uniform, and gradually decreasing from northwest to south. The extreme cold days was at most 717 d in Huzhong, and at least 29 d in Gagadaki, the extreme cold days in the whole region mutated in 1979, and the average annual extreme cold days decreased 14.2 d after the mutation compared with that before the mutation, and the annual extremely cold days have a significant cycle of 2 to 4 years. (2) The extreme minimum temperature in the whole region mutated in 1990, before the mutation the extreme minimum temperature was low and after the mutation began to rise, the significant cycle of annual extreme minimum temperature was 4 to 5 years, the extreme lowest temperature was -49.6 ℃ in Mohe, followed by -49.2 ℃ in Huzhong; the extreme lowest temperature occurs once every 2 years, once every 5 years and once every 10 years in Huzhong, while the extreme lowest temperature occurs once in 20 years, once in 50 years and once in 100 years in Mohe. (3) SCAND teleconnection patterm has a good correlation with extreme cold days in winter(January, February and December)in the Greater Khingan Mountains region. Positive growth of the circulation mode, it has great influence on the extreme cold weather in winter in the Greater Khingan Mountains region. © 2022 Science Press (China).