全球、中国及云南近百年气温变化的层次结构和突变特征

用文献［１］建立的自适应多分辨数据波滤器进行了全球、中国及云南近百年气温变化的层次结构和突变特征分析。结果表明：（１）全球近百年来的气温变化对于较大时间尺度的演化来说主要特征是变暖,并为３个层次：即１９１９年以前的偏冷期;１９２０－１９７８年偏暖期和１９７９年以后的更暖期。对应于这种较大时间尺度的层次演变,全球的气温变化表现出十分明显的突变特征,两上最明显增暖的突变点分别发生在１９２０年和１９７９     

月雨量的可预报性估算试验

根据广东省各地区气象条件的差异，森林面积的大小、森林火灾出现的严重程度，参照树种的分布，将全省划分为５个区域，在各区域内造若干代表站点，将代表站点所收集到的火灾样本资料分别与当地气象因子建立相关系，获得火险等级评价指数，并根据指数的大小，预报未来各地区的火险等级，从而达到对广东各地进行林火分区预报的目的。     

月雨量的相空间相似统计预报试验

本文用昆明１９０１－１９８０年的月雨暴时间序列建立了昆明月雨量的相这代间相似统计预报模式。通过对昆明１９８１－１９９２年共１４４次的预报试验和检验，得出对于适当嵌入的相空间维数ｍ和在一定的提前预报的时间尺度Ｔ内，该模式对昆明月雨量的距平符号报准率可达６０％以上，对于雨季（５－１０月）则可达到７０％以上。技巧评分对全年和雨季则可分别达到８％和１２％以上。     

MULTI-HIERARCHICAL STRUCTURE AND JUMP OF TEMPERATURE FOR THE GLOBE, CHINA AND YUNNAN OVER THE PAST 100 YEARS

An analysis has been conducted of the multi-hierarchical structure and jump of temperature variation for the globe, China and Yunnan Province over the past 100 years using an auto-adaptive, multi-resolution data filter set up in You, Lin and Deng (1997). The result is shown below in three aspects. (11 The variation of global temperature in this period is marked by warming on a large scale and can be divided into three stages of being cold (prior to 1919), warm (between 1920 and 1978) and warmer (since 1979). Well-defined jumps are with the variation in correspondence with the hierarchical evolution on such scale, occurring in 1920 and 1979 when there is the most substantial jump towards warming. For the evolution on smaller scales, however, the variation has shown more of alternations of cold and warm temperatures. The preceding hierarchical structure and warming jump are added with new ones. (2) The trend in which temperature varies is much the same for China and the Yunnan Province, but it is not consistent with that globally, the largest difference being that a weak period of cold temperature in 1955-1978 across the globe was suspended in 1979 when it jumped to a significant warming,while a period of very cold temperature in 1955-1986 in China and Yunnan was not followed by warming in similar extent until 1987. (3) Though there are consistent hierarchical structure and jumping features throughout the year in Yunnan, significant changes with season are also present and the most striking difference is that temperature tends to vary consistently with China in winter and spring but with the globe in summer and fall.