Characteristics of extreme dust events observed over two urban areas in Iran

Determination of dust loading in the atmosphere is important not only from the public health point of view, but also for regional climate changes. The present study focuses on the characteristics of two major dust events for two urban areas in Iran, Kermanshah and Tehran, over the period of 4 years from 2006 to 2009. To detect extreme dust outbreaks, various datasets including synoptic data, dust concentration, reanalysis data and numerical results of WRF and HYSPLIT models were used. The weather maps demonstrate that for these events dusts are mainly generated when wind velocity is high and humidity is low in the lower troposphere and the region is under the influence of a thermal low. The event lasts until the atmospheric stability prevails and the surface wind speed weakens. The thermal low nature of the synoptic conditions of these major events is also responsible for deep boundary layer development with its thermals affecting the vertical dust flux over the region. Trajectory studies show that the dust events originated from deserts in Iraq and Syria and transported towards Iran. The main distinction between the two types of mobilizations seems to affect the dust concentrations in the Tehran urban area.     

Buried pockmarks on the Top Chalk surface of the Danish North Sea and their potential significance for interpreting palaeocirculation patterns

Three-dimensional (3D) seismic data from the southern Danish North Sea were used to analyse the morphology and spatial distribution of depressions in the Danian Chalk deposit. Previously, these depressions were either interpreted as karst structures or pockmarks. The observed depressions occur in an interval from 25 ms below to 12 ms above the Top Chalk surface. Three types of depressions were differentiated based on their plan-view geometry and their degree of symmetry: Type 1, comprising sub-circular and symmetrical depressions, is the dominant group (ca. 70 %). Type 2, elongated and symmetrical depressions, represents only a small fraction (ca. 5 %). The elongated and asymmetrical depressions of Type 3 compose ca. 25 %. In cross section, each depression type can be either characterised by a V- or a U-shape. The maximum size of the depressions ranges from 50 to 580 m, with an average internal depth of 10 m. We interpret the depressions as pockmarks formed by the expulsion of biogenic or thermogenic fluids at the Danian seafloor. Likely, the initial form of the pockmarks has been circular (Type 1) and was subsequently modified for Types 2 and 3 to an elongated form by currents. The long axis of the pockmarks is interpreted to represent the effective current direction. The inferred direction is sub-parallel to the palaeobathymetric contours. The 3D seismic interpretation of pockmarks presented in this paper contributes to the understanding of fluid migration and palaeocirculation patterns during the sedimentation of the terminal Chalk Group in the southern Danish North Sea.     

Variances in the projections,resulting from CLIMEX,Boosted Regression Trees and Random Forests techniques

The aim of this study was to have a comparative investigation and evaluation of the capabilities of correlative and mechanistic modeling processes, applied to the projection of future distributions of date palm in novel environments and to establish a method of minimizing uncertainty in the projections of differing techniques. The location of this study on a global scale is in Middle Eastern Countries. We compared the mechanistic model CLIMEX (CL) with the correlative models MaxEnt (MX), Boosted Regression Trees (BRT), and Random Forests (RF) to project current and future distributions of date palm (Phoenix dactylifera L.). The Global Climate Model (GCM), the CSIRO-Mk3.0 (CS) using the A2 emissions scenario, was selected for making projections. Both indigenous and alien distribution data of the species were utilized in the modeling process. The common areas predicted by MX, BRT, RF, and CL from the CS GCM were extracted and compared to ascertain projection uncertainty levels of each individual technique. The common areas identified by all four modeling techniques were used to produce a map indicating suitable and unsuitable areas for date palm cultivation for Middle Eastern countries, for the present and the year 2100. The four different modeling approaches predict fairly different distributions. Projections from CL were more conservative than from MX. The BRT and RF were the most conservative methods in terms of projections for the current time. The combination of the final CL and MX projections for the present and 2100 provide higher certainty concerning those areas that will become highly suitable for future date palm cultivation. According to the four models, cold, hot, and wet stress, with differences on a regional basis, appears to be the major restrictions on future date palm distribution. The results demonstrate variances in the projections, resulting from different techniques. The assessment and interpretation of model projections requires reservations, especially in correlative models such as MX, BRT, and RF. Intersections between different techniques may decrease uncertainty in future distribution projections. However, readers should not miss the fact that the uncertainties are mostly because the future GHG emission scenarios are unknowable with sufficient precision. Suggestions towards methodology and processing for improving projections are included.     

Mapping landslide susceptibility with frequency ratio,statistical index,and weights of evidence models: a case study in northern Iran

The main objective of this study is to investigate potential application of frequency ratio (FR), weights of evidence (WoE), and statistical index (SI) models for landslide susceptibility mapping in a part of Mazandaran Province, Iran. First, a landslide inventory map was constructed from various sources. The landslide inventory map was then randomly divided in a ratio of 70/30 for training and validation of the models, respectively. Second, 13 landslide conditioning factors including slope degree, slope aspect, altitude, plan curvature, stream power index, topographic wetness index, sediment transport index, topographic roughness index, lithology, distance from streams, faults, roads, and land use type were prepared, and the relationships between these factors and the landslide inventory map were extracted by using the mentioned models. Subsequently, the multi-class weighted factors were used to generate landslide susceptibility maps. Finally, the susceptibility maps were verified and compared using several methods including receiver operating characteristic curve with the areas under the curve (AUC), landslide density, and spatially agreed area analyses. The success rate curve showed that the AUC for FR, WoE, and SI models was 81.51, 79.43, and 81.27, respectively. The prediction rate curve demonstrated that the AUC achieved by the three models was 80.44, 77.94, and 79.55, respectively. Although the sensitivity analysis using the FR model revealed that the modeling process was sensitive to input factors, the accuracy results suggest that the three models used in this study can be effective approaches for landslide susceptibility mapping in Mazandaran Province, and the resultant susceptibility maps are trustworthy for hazard mitigation strategies.     

Structural softening,mesh dependence,and regularisation in non-associated plastic flow

A severe dependence of numerical simulations on the mesh density is usually attributed to the presence of strain softening in the constitutive relation. However, other material instabilities, like non-associated plastic flow, can also cause mesh sensitivity. Indeed, loss of ellipticity in quasi-static analyses is the fundamental cause of the observed mesh dependence. It has been known since long that non-associated plastic flow can cause loss of ellipticity, but the consequence for mesh sensitivity, and subsequently, for the difficulty of the equilibrium-finding iterative procedure to converge have remained largely unnoticed. We first demonstrate at the hand of a biaxial test structural softening and a marked mesh dependence for an ideally plastic material equipped with a non-associated flow rule. The phenomena are then analysed in depth using an infinitely long shear layer. Finally, it is shown that the mesh effect disappears when the standard continuum model is replaced by a Cosserat continuum, a well-known regularisation method for strain-softening constitutive relations.     

Compounding effects of human activities and climatic changes on surface water availability in Iran

Climatic Change - By combining long-term ground-based data on water withdrawal with climate model projections, this study quantifies the compounding effects of human activities and climate change...     

Assessment of hydrochemistry and heavy metals pollution in the groundwater of Ardestan mineral exploration area,Iran

The aim of this research is to determine the effective factors on the hydrogeochemistry and assessment of heavy metals pollution indices in the groundwater of Ardestan copper exploration area, Iran. In this study, in total, 111 groundwater samples from one well and several qanats and springs were collected. Piper and Stiff diagrams and statistical methods and quality indices were applied to hydrochemical data. Afterward, the water samples were classified into four groups, namely CaHCO3, CaCl, NaCl, and NaHCO3. According to evaluation indices, considering the fact that only a few points are in the high risk level, the groundwater of the study area has a low level of pollution. On the other hand, the pH of the groundwater of the region was mostly neutral and acid mine drainage was not found. Since the condition of the area is in pre-mining process, two factors are possibly influential: (1) rocks or minerals having sulfides are not exposed to an atmosphere (normally below groundwater) and H⁺ release does not occur and (2) the existence of minerals containing silicate and carbonate that can rapidly reduce acidification of water. Finally, it seems that during mining and in post-mining conditions, acid rock drainage which results from the oxidation of sulfides will probably influence the quality of water resources in Ardestan city. This is because the groundwater flow direction is from the mine toward Ardestan plain.     

Pseudo-static bearing capacity of shallow foundations on heterogeneous marine deposits using limit equilibrium method

Abstract

By application of the limit equilibrium method associated with Coulomb failure mechanism, the effect of variation of undrained shear strength with depth on seismic bearing capacity was evaluated. The approach followed in this study to take into account seismic forces is pseudo-static. It is also assumed that the occurrence of an earthquake does not have any effects on the values of soil cohesion. Two different marine soil deposits exhibiting linear and bilinear variations of undrained shear strength with depth were considered. The undrained bearing capacity factor has been computed as a function of dimensionless parameters of λ₁B/c₀, λ₂B/c₀, and Z_t/B. The results of this paper have been compared with solutions reported in the literature, and the consistency of the results confirmed the ability of Coulomb failure mechanism and its corresponding limit equilibrium method formulation in static condition. Furthermore, the pseudo-static bearing capacity of shallow foundations on heterogeneous marine deposit is addressed. Finally the results of this study presented in the form of table and design charts.