Principal components in active galactic nuclei variability data and the estimation of the flux contributions from different components

It has been found that the near-infrared flux variations of Seyfert galaxies satisfy relations of the form   F_i ≈α _{i j} +β _{i j} F_j   , where F_i , F_j are the fluxes in filters i and j ; and  α _{i , j} , β _{i , j}   are constants. These relations have been used to estimate the constant contributions of the non-variable underlying galaxies. The paper attempts a formal treatment of the estimation procedure, allowing for the possible presence of a third component, namely non-variable hot dust. In an analysis of a sample of 38 Seyfert galaxies, inclusion of the hot dust component improves the model fit in approximately half the cases. All derived dust temperatures are below 300 K, in the range 540–860 K or above 1300 K. A noteworthy feature is the estimation of confidence intervals for the component contributions: this is achieved by bootstrapping. It is also pointed out that the model implies that such data could be fruitfully analysed in terms of principal components.     

Design of a 3D Chirp Sub-bottom Imaging System

Chirp sub-bottom profilers are marine acoustic devices that use a known and repeatable source signature (1–24 kHz) to produce decimetre vertical resolution cross-sections of the sub-seabed. Here the design and development of the first true 3D Chirp system is described. When developing the design, critical factors that had to be considered included spatial aliasing, and precise positioning of sources and receivers. Full 3D numerical modelling of the combined source and receiver directivity was completed to determine optimal source and receiver geometries. The design incorporates four source transducers (1.5–13 kHz) that can be arranged into different configurations, including Maltese Cross, a square and two separated pairs. The receive array comprises 240 hydrophones in 60 groups whose group-centres are separated by 25 cm in both horizontal directions, with each hydrophone group containing four individual elements and a pre-amplifier. After careful consideration, it was concluded that the only way to determine with sufficient accuracy the source–receiver geometry, was to fix the sources and receivers within a rigid array. Positional information for the array is given by a Real Time Kinematic GPS and attitude system incorporating four antennas to give position, heading, pitch and roll. It is shown that this system offers vertical positioning accuracy with a root-mean-square (rms) error less than 2.6 cm, while the horizontal positioning rms error was less than 2.0 cm. The system is configured so that the Chirp source signature can be chosen by software aboard the acquisition vessel. The complete system is described and initial navigational and seismic data results are presented. These data demonstrate that the approach of using fixed source-receiver geometry combined with RTK navigation can provide complete 3D imaging of the sub-surface.     

Geochemical exploration for platinum-group elements in the Bushveld Complex, South Africa

Analyses of stream sediment and soil samples from the Bushveld Complex, South Africa have revealed enhanced precious metal concentrations, which can be related both to mining activities and the presence of hidden concentrations of platinum-group elements (PGEs) and gold. The economically important PGE deposits hosted by the Upper Critical Zone of the Rustenburg Layered Suite are revealed by a high PGE and Au content in the overlying soils. A second zone of elevated precious metal concentrations straddles the boundary between the Main and Upper Zones and has to date been traced for more than 100 km. This zone follows the igneous layering of the Rustenburg Layered Suite and is offset by the Brits Graben. It is therefore thought to be the reflection of a magmatic PGE-Au mineralisation. Received: 31 May 1996 / Accepted: 7 January 1997     

Modelling forest canopy gaps using LiDAR-derived variables

Remote sensing has revolutionized forest management and has been widely employed to model canopy gaps. In this study, a canopy height model (CHM) and an intensity raster (IR) derived from light detection and ranging (LiDAR) data were used to model canopy gaps within a four-year-old Eucalyptus grandis forest using an object-based image analysis (OBIA) approach. Model thematic accuracies using the CHM, intensity raster and combined data set (CHM and IR) were all above 90%, with KHAT values ranging from 0.88 to 0.96. Independent test thematic accuracies were also above 90%, with KHAT values ranging from 0.82 to 0.91. A comparative area-based assessment yielded accuracies ranging from 70 to 90%, with the highest accuracies achieved using the combined data set. The results of this study show that using a CHM and intensity raster, and an OBIA approach, provides a viable framework to accurately detect and delineate canopy gaps within a commercial forest environment.     

Present-day oxidative subsidence of organic soils and mitigation in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta,California, USA

Subsidence of organic soils in the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta threatens sustainability of the California (USA) water supply system and agriculture. Land-surface elevation data were collected to assess present-day subsidence rates and evaluate rice as a land use for subsidence mitigation. To depict Delta-wide present-day rates of subsidence, the previously developed SUBCALC model was refined and calibrated using recent data for CO₂ emissions and land-surface elevation changes measured at extensometers. Land-surface elevation change data were evaluated relative to indirect estimates of subsidence and accretion using carbon and nitrogen flux data for rice cultivation. Extensometer and leveling data demonstrate seasonal variations in land-surface elevations associated with groundwater-level fluctuations and inelastic subsidence rates of 0.5–0.8 cm yr^–1. Calibration of the SUBCALC model indicated accuracy of ±0.10 cm yr^–1 where depth to groundwater, soil organic matter content and temperature are known. Regional estimates of subsidence range from <0.3 to >1.8 cm yr^–1. The primary uncertainty is the distribution of soil organic matter content which results in spatial averaging in the mapping of subsidence rates. Analysis of leveling and extensometer data in rice fields resulted in an estimated accretion rate of 0.02–0.8 cm yr^–1. These values generally agreed with indirect estimates based on carbon fluxes and nitrogen mineralization, thus preliminarily demonstrating that rice will stop or greatly reduce subsidence. Areas below elevations of –2 m are candidate areas for implementation of mitigation measures such as rice because there is active subsidence occurring at rates greater than 0.4 cm yr^–1.     

Seasonally and spatially referenced estimates of recreational shore-angling effort,catch composition,catch rates and total catch in the Goukamma Marine Protected Area,South Africa

A roving creel survey of the recreational shore fishery along the 16.4-km coastline in the Goukamma Marine Protected Area on the south coast of South Africa was conducted from 2009 to 2011. Some 838 patrols were stratified equally among months, areas and years, but intentionally biased towards weekends. Angler densities at Buffalo Bay and Groenvlei were 0.59 and 0.28 anglers km?1, respectively. Weekend densities were double to quadruple weekday densities and fishing during winter was more popular than during summer. Area, habitat and distance to access points explained variation in angler densities. Shannon–Wiener diversity in catches declined from 2.18 in an earlier (1993–2002) survey to 1.79. Although the order of species abundance in the catches remained largely unchanged, blacktail Diplodus capensis dominance increased to 57.3% by number, at the expense of galjoen Dichistius capensis. Habitat explained 27% of the variance in catch composition. The catch per unit effort (CPUE) for the top nine species ranged from 0.19 to 6.35 fish 100-h?1. The CPUE of all species, except spotted grunter Pomadasys commersonnii, declined. Blacktail and galjoen CPUE declined by 17% and 77%, respectively. The total catch estimate was 2 986 fish y?1. Transgressions of size limits were common. The results suggest that the fishery is overexploited and that catch rates are declining.     

A comparison of model calculations of ice crystal growth with observations following silver iodide seeding

Abstract

Past theoretical investigations have reported that observed peaks in the diffusional growth of ice crystals in the vicinity of ‐5 and ‐15°C could be qualitatively modelled assuming certain specific crystal properties. This study re‐examines the ice crystal diffusional growth model using more recently available observations of pertinent crystal parameters. The results, indicative of the growth of average crystals, imply a much weaker dependence of the diffusional mass growth rate on temperature in the range of ‐5 to ‐15°C. Extension of the model to include growth by accretion, also suggests that the mass of heavily rimed crystals is not very sensitive to the original crystal habit. The results of the calculations are compared with observed crystal sizes in cumulus clouds following seeding on three different days. The observations indicate that small crystals were continuously being produced as long as 15 min after seeding. In two cases, crystals much larger than those predicted by the model for any reasonable set of parameters suggest that crystal aggregation may have been occurring at a significant rate.     

Turbulence structure in convective boundary layers and implications for diffusion

Probability density distributions of vertical velocity fluctuations from the daytime convective boundary layer and from convection within a nighttime stratocumulus-capped boundary layer are described and contrasted. Some implications for the diffusion of released, neutrally buoyant, material are identified and discussed.     

Perspectives on present-day sea level change: a tribute to Christian le Provost

In this paper, we first discuss the controversial result of the work by Cabanes et al. (Science 294:840–842, 2001), who suggested that the rate of past century sea level rise may have been overestimated, considering the limited and heterogeneous location of historical tide gauges and the high regional variability of thermal expansion which was supposed to dominate the observed sea level. If correct, this conclusion would have solved the problem raised by the IPCC third assessment report [Church et al, Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 881, 2001], namely, the factor two difference between the 20th century observed sea level rise and the computed climatic contributions. However, recent investigations based on new ocean temperature data sets indicate that thermal expansion only explains part (about 0.4 mm/year) of the 1.8 mm/year observed sea level rise of the past few decades. In fact, the Cabanes et al.’s conclusion was incorrect due to a contamination of abnormally high ocean temperature data in the Gulf Stream area that led to an overestimate of thermal expansion in this region. In this paper, we also estimate thermal expansion over the last decade (1993–2003), using a new ocean temperature and salinity database. We compare our result with three other estimates, two being based on global gridded data sets, and one based on an approach similar to that developed here. It is found that the mean rate of thermosteric sea level rise over the past decade is 1.5±0.3 mm/year, i.e. 50% of the observed 3 mm/year by satellite altimetry. For both time spans, past few decades and last decade, a contribution of 1.4 mm/year is not explained by thermal expansion, thus needs to be of water mass origin. Direct estimates of land ice melt for the recent years account for about 1 mm/year sea level rise. Thus, at least for the last decade, we have moved closer to explaining the observed rate of sea level rise than the IPCC third assessment report.