Evidence of NW extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea: a new interpretation of the Marmara Sea (Izmit) earthquake on 17 August 1999

Active faults aligning in NW–SE direction and forming flower structures of strike-slip faults were observed in shallow seismic data from the shelf offshore of Avcılar in the northern Marmara Sea. By following the parallel drainage pattern and scarps, these faults were traced as NW–SE-directed lineaments in the morphology of the northern onshore sector of the Marmara Sea (eastern Thrace Peninsula). Right-lateral displacements in two watersheds of drainage and on the coast of the Marmara Sea and Black Sea are associated with these lineaments. This right-lateral displacement along the course of these faults suggests a new, active strike-slip fault zone located at the NW extension of the northern boundary fault of the ?ınarcık Basin in the Marmara Sea. This new fault zone is interpreted as the NW extension of the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), extending from the ?ınarcık Basin of the Marmara Sea to the Black Sea coast of the Thrace Peninsula, and passing through B üy ük ?ekmece and K ü ? ük ?ekmece lagoons. These data suggest that the rupture of the 17 August 1999 earthquake in the NAFZ may have extended through Avcılar. Indeed, Avcılar and İzmit, both located on the Marmara Sea coast along the rupture route, were strongly struck by the earthquake whereas the settlements between Avcılar and İzmit were much less affected. Therefore, this interpretation can explain the extraordinary damage in Avcılar, based on the newly discovered rupture of the NAFZ in the Marmara Sea. However, this suggestion needs to be confirmed by further seismological studies.     

Temporal and Periodic Variations of Sunspot Counts in Flaring and Non-Flaring Active Regions

We analyzed temporal and periodic variations of sunspot counts (SSCs) in flaring (C-, M-, or X-class flares), and non-flaring active regions (ARs) for nearly three solar cycles (1986 through 2016). Our main findings are as follows: i) temporal variations of monthly means of the daily total SSCs in flaring and non-flaring ARs behave differently during a solar cycle and the behavior varies from one cycle to another; during Solar Cycle 23 temporal SSC profiles of non-flaring ARs are wider than those of flaring ARs, while they are almost the same during Solar Cycle 22 and the current Cycle 24. The SSC profiles show a multi-peak structure and the second peak of flaring ARs dominates the current Cycle 24, while the difference between peaks is less pronounced during Solar Cycles 22 and 23. The first and second SSC peaks of non-flaring ARs have comparable magnitude in the current solar cycle, while the first peak is nearly absent in the case of the flaring ARs of the same cycle. ii) Periodic variations observed in the SSCs profiles of flaring and non-flaring ARs derived from the multi-taper method (MTM) spectrum and wavelet scalograms are quite different as well, and they vary from one solar cycle to another. The largest detected period in flaring ARs is \(113\pm 1.6~\mbox{days}\) while we detected much longer periodicities (\(327\pm 13\), \(312 \pm 11\), and \(256\pm 8~\mbox{days}\)) in the non-flaring AR profiles. No meaningful periodicities were detected in the MTM spectrum of flaring ARs exceeding \(55\pm 0.7~\mbox{days}\) during Solar Cycles 22 and 24, while a \(113\pm 1.3~\mbox{days}\) period was detected in flaring ARs of Solar Cycle 23. For the non-flaring ARs the largest detected period was only \(31\pm 0.2~\mbox{days}\) for Cycle 22 and \(72\pm 1.3~\mbox{days}\) for the current Cycle 24, while the largest measured period was \(327\pm 13~\mbox{days}\) during Solar Cycle 23.     

Tectonic elements controlling the evolution of the Gulf of Saros (northeastern Aegean Sea, Turkey)

Tectonic elements controlling the evolution of the Gulf of Saros have been studied based upon the high-resolution shallow seismic data integrated with the geological field observations. Evolution of the Gulf of Saros started in the Middle to Late Miocene due to the NW–SE compression caused by the counterclockwise movement of the Thrace and Biga peninsulas along the Thrace Fault Zone. Hence, the North Anatolian Fault Zone is not an active structural element responsible for the starting of the evolution of the Gulf of Saros. The compression caused by the rotational movement was compensated by tectonic escape along the pre-existing Ganos Fault System. Two most significant controllers of this deformation are the sinistral Ganos Fault and the dextral northern Saros Fault Zone both extending along the Gulf of Saros. The most important evidences of this movement are the left- and right-oriented shear deformations, which are correlated with structural elements, observed on the land and on the high-resolution shallow seismic records at the sea. Another important line of evidence supporting the evolution of this deformation is that the transgression started in the early-Late Miocene and turned, as a result of regional uplift, into a regression on the Gelibolu Peninsula during the Turolian and in the north of the Saros Trough during the Early Pliocene. The deformation on the Gelibolu Peninsula continued effectively until the Pleistocene. Taking into account the fact that this deformation affected the Late Pleistocene units of the Marmara Formation, the graben formation of the Gulf of Saros is interpreted as a Recent event. However, at least a small amount of compression on the Gelibolu Peninsula is observed. It is also evident that compression ceased at the northern shelf area of the Gulf of Saros.     

Evidence of NW extension of the North Anatolian Fault Zone in the Marmara Sea: a new interpretation of the Marmara Sea (İzmit) earthquake on 17 August 1999

Active faults aligning in NW–SE direction and forming flower structures of strike-slip faults were observed in shallow seismic data from the shelf offshore of Avc?lar in the northern Marmara Sea. By following the parallel drainage pattern and scarps, these faults were traced as NW–SE-directed lineaments in the morphology of the northern onshore sector of the Marmara Sea (eastern Thrace Peninsula). Right-lateral displacements in two watersheds of drainage and on the coast of the Marmara Sea and Black Sea are associated with these lineaments. This right-lateral displacement along the course of these faults suggests a new, active strike-slip fault zone located at the NW extension of the northern boundary fault of the Ç?narc?k Basin in the Marmara Sea. This new fault zone is interpreted as the NW extension of the northern branch of the North Anatolian Fault Zone (NAFZ), extending from the Ç?narc?k Basin of the Marmara Sea to the Black Sea coast of the Thrace Peninsula, and passing through B üy ük çekmece and K ü ç ük çekmece lagoons. These data suggest that the rupture of the 17 August 1999 earthquake in the NAFZ may have extended through Avc?lar. Indeed, Avc?lar and ?zmit, both located on the Marmara Sea coast along the rupture route, were strongly struck by the earthquake whereas the settlements between Avc?lar and ?zmit were much less affected. Therefore, this interpretation can explain the extraordinary damage in Avc?lar, based on the newly discovered rupture of the NAFZ in the Marmara Sea. However, this suggestion needs to be confirmed by further seismological studies.     

Source Based Characterization and Pollution Profile of a Baker's Yeast Industry

Baker's yeast industry has significant effects on environment due to significant water consumption and high strength wastewater production. Effluents from baker's yeast industry are characterized by high concentrations of biological oxygen demand (BOD₅), chemical oxygen demand (COD), total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN), total dissolved solids (TDS), sulfate, and dark brown color. The aim of this study is to provide a detailed quantitative and qualitative identification and characterization of the wastewater sources from different processes of a baker's yeast industry. It is identified that the most polluted wastewater components of the facility are coming from rotary drum filter and evaporation process. However, the highest pollution loads is identified as tank and equipment cleaning effluent due to very high flow rate from this source. The efforts should be on the way to minimize the water usage for the tank and equipment cleaning process, and to recycle less polluted waste streams back to the process.     

A comparative assessment of catchment runoff generation and forest productivity in a semi-arid environment

Understanding the dynamic interactions between forest ecosystems and water in the Mediterranean region is essential for increasing ecosystem services. Even if many studies were implemented to analyse the variations of water and net primary productivity (NPP) in the last decade, this is still an important research question especially for the Eastern Mediterranean, where the research attempts are limited. The main objective of this study was to carry out a comparative analysis of catchment runoff generation and forest NPP and to reveal their temporal dynamics at basin scale in a semi-arid Mediterranean environment. The methodology consisted three steps: (i) estimating catchment runoff generation by implementing process-based J2000 modelling suite, (ii) modelling NPP of the land cover/use types by adapting an ecosystem-process model (BIOME-Biogeochemical cycles) and (iii) assessing the spatio-temporal variability of NPP and runoff dynamics by incorporating the modelling results with multiple regression analysis. Model simulations showed that temperature highly contributed to NPP variations of needle-leaf forests and grasslands. The multiple regression analysis also indicated that runoff was influenced by elevation, precipitation and forest cover. This relationship showed that the inter-annual variability in forest NPP would relate to the variations in runoff distribution across a small Mediterranean subcatchment.     

Basin-wide hydrological system assessment under climate change scenarios through conceptual modelling

ABSTRACT

Mediterranean region is identified as a primary hot-spot for climate change due to the expected temperature and rainfall changes. Understanding the potential impacts of climate change on the hydrology in these regions is an important task to develop long-term water management strategies. The aim of this study was to quantify the potential impacts of the climate changes on local hydrological quantities at the Goksu Watershed at the Eastern Mediterranean, Turkey as a case study. A set of Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios were used as drivers for the conceptual hydrological model J2000 to investigate how the hydrological system and the underlying processes would respond to projected future climate conditions. The model was implemented to simulate daily hydrological quantities including runoff generation, Actual Evapotranspiration (AET) and soil-water balance for present (2005–2015) and future (up to 2100). The results indicated an increase of both precipitation and runoff throughout the region from January to March. The region showed a strong seasonally dependent runoff regime with higher flows during winter and spring and lower flows in summer and fall. The study provides a comparative methodology to include meteorological-hydrological modelling integration that can be feasible to assess the climate change impacts in mountainous regions.     

Conditioning Fractal (fBm/fGn) Porosity and Permeability Fields to Multiwell Pressure Data

Stochastic fractal (fGn and fBm) porosity and permeability fields are conditioned to given variogram, static (or hard), and multiwell pressure data within a Bayesian estimation framework. Because fGn distributions are normal/second-order stationary, it is shown that the Bayesian estimation methods based on the assumption of normal/second-order stationary distributions can be directly used to generate fGn porosity/permeability fields conditional to pressure data. However, because fBm is not second-order stationary, it is shown that such Bayesian estimation methods can be used with implementation of a pseudocovariance approach to generate fBm porosity/permeability fields conditional to multiwell pressure data. In addition, we provide methods to generate unconditional realizations of fBm/fGn fields honoring all variogram parameters. These unconditional realizations can then be conditioned to hard and pressure data observed at wells by using the randomized maximum likelihood method. Synthetic examples generated from one-, two-, and three-dimensional single-phase flow simulators are used to show the applicability of our methodology for generating realizations of fBm/fGn porosity and permeability fields conditioned to well-test pressure data and evaluating the uncertainty in reservoir performance predictions appropriately using these history-matched realizations.     

Late Pleistocene–Holocene evolution of the southern Marmara shelf and sub-basins: middle strand of the North Anatolian fault,southern Marmara Sea,Turkey

Although there are many research studies on the northern and southern branches of the North Anatolian fault, cutting through the deep basins of the Sea of Marmara in the north and creating a series of pull-apart basins on the southern mainland, little data is available about the geometrical and kinematical characteristics of the middle strand of the North Anatolian fault. The first detailed geometry of the middle strand of the North Anatolian fault along the southern Marmara shelf, including the Gemlik and Band?rma Bay, will be given in this study, by a combined interpretation of different seismic data sets. The characteristic features of its segments and their importance on the paleogeographic evolution of the southern shelf sub-basins were defined. The longest one of these faults, the Armutlu-Band?rma segment, is a 75-km long dextral strike-slip fault which connects the W–E trending Gençali segment in the east and NE–SW trending Kap?da?-Edincik segment in the west. In this context, the Gemlik Bay opened as a pull-apart basin under the control of the middle strand whilst a new fault segment developed during the late Pleistocene, cutting through the eastern rim of the bay. In this region, a delta front forming the paleoshoreline of the Gemlik paleolake was cut and shifted approximately 60 ± 5 m by the new segment. The same offset on this fault was also measured on a natural scarp of acoustic basement to the west and integrated with this paleoshoreline forming the slightly descending topset–foreset reflections of the delta front. Therefore the new segment is believed to be active at least for the last 30,000 years. The annual lateral slip rate representing this period of time will be 2 mm, which is quite consistent with modern GPS measurements. Towards the west, the Band?rma Bay is a rectangular transpressional basin whilst the Erdek Bay is a passive basin under the control of NW–SE trending faults. When the water level of the paleo-Marmara lake dropped down to ?90 m, the water levels of the suspended paleolakes of Band?rma and Gemlik on the southern shelf were ?50.3 (?3.3 Global Isostatic Adjustment—GIA) and ?60.5 (?3.3 GIA) m below the present mean sea level, respectively. As of today a similar example can be seen between the Sea of Marmara and the shallow freshwater lakes of Manyas and Uluabat. Similarly, the paleolakes of Gemlik and Bandirma were affected by the water level fluctuations at different time periods, even though both lakes were isolated from the Sea of Marmara during the glacial periods.