Local climatic drivers of changes in phenology at a boreal-temperate ecotone in eastern North America

Ecosystems in biogeographical transition zones, or ecotones, tend to be highly sensitive to climate and can provide early indications of future change. To evaluate recent climatic changes and their impacts in a boreal-temperate ecotone in eastern North America, we analyzed ice phenology records (1975?C2007) for five lakes in the Adirondack Mountains of northern New York State. We observed rapidly decreasing trends of up to 21?days less ice cover, mostly due to later freeze-up and partially due to earlier break-up. To evaluate the local drivers of these lake ice changes, we modeled ice phenology based on local climate data, derived climatic predictors from the models, and evaluated trends in those predictors to determine which were responsible for observed changes in lake ice. November and December temperature and snow depth consistently predicted ice-in, and recent trends of warming and decreasing snow during these months were consistent with later ice formation. March and April temperature and snow depth consistently predicted ice-out, but the absence of trends in snow depth during these months, despite concurrent warming, resulted in much weaker trends for ice-out. Recent rates of warming in the Adirondacks are among the highest regionally, although with a different seasonality of changes (early winter > late winter) that is consistent with other lake ice records in the surrounding area. Projected future declines in snow cover could create positive feedbacks and accelerate current rates of ice loss due to warming. Climate sensitivity was greatest for the larger lakes in our study, including Wolf Lake, considered one of the most ecologically intact ??wilderness lakes?? in eastern North America. Our study provides further evidence of climate sensitivity of the boreal-temperate ecotone of eastern North America and points to emergent conservation challenges posed by climate change in legally protected yet vulnerable landscapes like the Adirondack Park.     

Variability of tree transpiration across three zones in a southeastern U.S. Piedmont watershed

Quantifying the spatial variability of species-specific tree transpiration across hillslopes is important for estimating watershed-scale evapotranspiration (ET) and predicting spatial drought effects on vegetation. The objectives of this study are to (1) assess sap flux density (J_s) and tree-level transpiration (T_s) across three contrasting zones a (riparian buffer, mid-hillslope and upland-hillslope, (2) determine how species-specific J_s responds to vapour pressure deficit (VPD) and (3) estimate watershed-level transpiration (T_w) using T_s derived from each zone. During 2015 and 2016, we measured J_s in eight tree species in the three topographic zones in a small 12-ha forested watershed in the Piedmont region of central North Carolina. In the dry year of 2015, loblolly pine (Pinus taeda), Virginia pine (Pinus virginiana) and sweetgum (Liquidambar styraciflua) J_s rates were significantly higher in the riparian buffer when compared to the other two zones. In contrast, J_s rates in tulip poplar (Liriodendron tulipifera) and red maple (Acer rubrum) were significantly lower in the buffer than in the mid-hillslope. Daily T_s varied by zone and ranged from 10 to 93 L/day in the dry year and from 9 to 122 L/day in the wet year (2016). J_s responded nonlinearly to VPD in all species and zones. Annual T_w was 447, 377 and 340 mm based on scaled-J_s data for the buffer, mid-hillslope and upland-hillslope, respectively. We conclude that large spatial variability in J_s and scaled T_w was driven by differences in soil moisture at each zone and forest composition. Consequently, spatial heterogeneity of vegetation and soil moisture must be considered when accurately quantifying watershed level ET.     

Microgranitoid enclave swarms in granitic plutons, central Sierra Nevada, California

Microgranitoid enclaves are common in granitic plutons worldwide, occurring individually and in homogeneous or heterogeneous swarms. Three plutons in the central Sierra Nevada batholith contain swarms with mostly heterogeneous suites of enclaves in the intermediate composition range, and occur in a number of two-dimensional shapes, specifically as dikes, small rafts, lenses, pipe/vortices and large massive shapes. Swarms are characterized by various features, including the nature of their boundary with the host, their planar or non-planar character, internal geometry, density of enclave packing, presence or absence of schlieren and crystal aggregates, and axial ratios and degree of preferred alignment of enclaves. We propose that heterogeneous enclave swarms form by one, or some combination of, the following mechanisms: (1) velocity-gradient sorting parallel or normal to the flow, (2) gravitational sorting or (3) break-up of heterogeneous dikes. Common sites where enclave swarms form include pluton margins or internal viscosity walls, within fractures, and near the pluton roof.     

气候与土地利用变化对流域水资源的影响——以美国北卡罗莱纳州Trent流域为例

分布式水文模型PRMS可为气候与土地利用变化对流域水资源影响的研究提供技术和理论支撑.对Trent流域产流过程采用PRMS模型进行模拟检验,结果表明,Nash模型确定性系数达到0.8以上.水文响应单元(HRU)划分尺度减小,可以有效地提高PRMS模拟精度达7%左右,划分尺度缩小到71个HRU时,模拟精度不再提高.流域蒸...     

Microheterogeneity of element distribution and sulfur speciation in an organic surface horizon of a forested Histosol as revealed by synchrotron-based X-ray spectromicroscopy

In recent years, the relevance of physico-chemical heterogeneity patterns in soils at the micron and submicron scale for the regulation of biogeochemical processes has become increasingly evident. For an organic surface soil horizon from a forested Histosol in Germany, microspatial patterns of element distribution (sulfur, phosphorus, aluminium, silicon) and S speciation were investigated by synchrotron-based X-ray spectromicroscopy. Microspatial patterns of S, P, Al and Si contents in the organic topsoil were assessed for a sample region of 50 μm × 30 μm by spatially resolving μ-XRF. Sulfur speciation at four microsites was investigated by focused X-ray absorption near edge structure (μ-XANES) spectroscopy at the S K-edge. The results show a heterogeneous distribution of the investigated elements on the (sub)micron scale, allowing the identification of diatoms, aluminosilicate mineral particles and sulfide minerals in the organic soil matrix. Evaluation of the S K-edge μ-XANES spectra acquired at four different microsites by linear combination fitting revealed a substantial microspatial heterogeneity of S speciation, characterized by the presence of distinct enrichment zones of inorganic sulfide and zones with dominant organic disulfide S within a few micrometers distance, and coexistence of different S species (e.g. reduced inorganic and organic S compounds) at a spatial scale below the resolution of the instrument (60 nm × 60 nm; X-ray penetration depth: 30 μm).     

Detecting water yield variability due to the small proportional land use and land cover changes in a watershed on the Loess Plateau,China

Soil conservation practices have been widely implemented on the Loess Plateau to reduce severe soil erosion in north‐central China over the past three decades. However, the hydrologic impacts of these practices are not well documented and understood. The objective of this study was to examine how water yield has changed after implementing soil conservation practices that resulted in changes in land use and land cover in a small agriculture‐dominated watershed, the LuErGou Watershed in Tianshui City, Gansu Province, China. We collected 23 years of hydro‐meteorological data along with three land use surveys of 1982, 1989, and 2000. The land use survey in 2000 suggested that the soil conservation efforts resulted in a 16·6%, 4%, and 16% increase in area of grassland, forested land, and terraces respectively over the two periods from 1982 to 1988 (baseline) and 1989 to 2003 (soil conservation measures implemented). Rainfall–runoff regression models developed for both time periods at the annual and monthly time steps were used to examine the significance of change in water yield in the second time period. The averaged annual run‐off coefficient over 1989–2003 did not change significantly (at the α = 0·05 level) as compared to that in the period 1982–1988. However, we found that soil conservation practices that included re‐vegetation and terracing reduced water yield during wet periods. This study highlights the importance of the precipitation regime in regulating hydrologic effects of soil conservation measures in a semi‐arid environment. We concluded that adequately evaluating the effects of land use change and soil conservation measures on water yield must consider the climatic variability under an arid environment. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Short‐term stream water temperature observations permit rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts

Assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature (T_s) across large scales remains challenging for resource managers because energy exchange processes between the atmosphere and the stream environment are complex and uncertain, and few long‐term datasets are available to evaluate changes over time. In this study, we demonstrate how simple monthly linear regression models based on short‐term historical T_s observations and readily available interpolated air temperature (T_a) estimates can be used for rapid assessment of historical and future changes in T_s. Models were developed for 61 sites in the southeastern USA using ≥18 months of observations and were validated at sites with longer periods of record. The T_s models were then used to estimate temporal changes in T_s at each site using both historical estimates and future T_a projections. Results suggested that the linear regression models adequately explained the variability in T_s across sites, and the relationships between T_s and T_a remained consistent over 37 years. We estimated that most sites had increases in historical annual mean T_s between 1961 and 2010 (mean of +0.11 °C decade^?1). All 61 sites were projected to experience increases in T_s from 2011 to 2060 under the three climate projections evaluated (mean of +0.41 °C decade^?1). Several of the sites with the largest historical and future T_s changes were located in ecoregions home to temperature‐sensitive fish species. This methodology can be used by resource managers for rapid assessment of potential climate change impacts on stream water temperature. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

基于物理过程分布式流域水文模型尺度依赖性

通过变化基于物理过程分布式参数流域水文模型的单元格大小(Grid size)和时间步长(Timestep)研究流域水文过程的尺度依赖性,进而寻求最佳模拟尺度和模拟效果,可以为实现相对准确的流域土地利用变化/植被变化以及气候变异的水文响应预测,制定适应性流域管理措施提供科学基础.本文以基于物理过程的分布式水文模型MIKES眦为工具,以位于西北黄土高原甘肃省天水市吕二沟流域的实测次降水一径流为输入对模型进行校正后,采用多尺度检验的方法探讨分析了单元格及步长变化的水文影响.结果表明:单元格变化对峰值及模拟径流总量有影响.单元格从10m增大到200m,模拟峰值及径流总量均增大,分别变化为1.72～8.56m3/s和1.10～3.68×105m3,这主要源于单元格变化引起流域特征变化,10m和200m单元格对应模拟面积分别较原流域面积变化-0.09%和20.57%,河流链接"rivet link"分别较原沟系长变化27.23%和5.48%.此外,模型中运动波近似方程有限差分像元△x与单元格水流交换总量之间的关系一定程度也解释了单元格变化对模拟结果的影响.分析认为本研究60～100m为较适宜采用的模拟单元格.步长变化引起单位步长内降水强度的变化,从而影响峰值模拟,但对径流总量无影响.步长减小,模拟峰值增高,0.5h步长和24h步长对应模拟峰值分别为2.38m3/s和1.72m3/s.由于各时段观测记录分辨率不一,研究中步长的选择确定具有很大任意性,使得任一既定采用的模拟步长并不适用于另一观测时段,模拟效果不一.     

Regeneration in Gap Models: Priority Issues for Studying Forest Responses to Climate Change

Recruitment algorithms in forest gap models are examined withparticular regard to their suitability for simulating forestecosystem responses to a changing climate. The traditional formulation of recruitment is found limiting in three areas. First, the aggregation of different regeneration stages (seedproduction, dispersal, storage, germination and seedling establishment) is likely to result in less accurate predictionsof responses as compared to treating each stage separately. Second, the related assumptions that seeds of all species are uniformly available and that environmental conditions arehomogeneous, are likely to cause overestimates of future speciesdiversity and forest migration rates. Third, interactions between herbivores (ungulates and insect pests) and forest vegetation are a big unknown with potentially serious impactsin many regions. Possible strategies for developing better gapmodel representations for the climate-sensitive aspects of eachof these key areas are discussed. A working example of a relatively new model that addresses some of these limitations is also presented for each case. We conclude that better modelsof regeneration processes are desirable for predicting effectsof climate change, but that it is presently impossible to determine what improvements can be expected without carrying outrigorous tests for each new formulation.     

A model to predict stream water temperature across the conterminous USA

Stream water temperature (t_s) is a critical water quality parameter for aquatic ecosystems. However, t_s records are sparse or nonexistent in many river systems. In this work, we present an empirical model to predict t_s at the site scale across the USA. The model, derived using data from 171 reference sites selected from the Geospatial Attributes of Gages for Evaluating Streamflow database, describes the linear relationship between monthly mean air temperature (t_a) and t_s. Multiple linear regression models are used to predict the slope (m) and intercept (b) of the t_a–t_s linear relation as a function of climatic, hydrologic and land cover characteristics. Model performance to predict t_s resulted in a mean Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient of 0.78 across all sites. Application of the model to predict t_s at additional 89 nonreference sites with a higher human alteration yielded a mean Nash–Sutcliffe value of 0.45. We also analysed seasonal thermal sensitivity (m) and found strong hysteresis in the t_a–t_s relation. Drainage area exerts a strong control on m in all seasons, whereas the cooling effect of groundwater was only evident for the spring and fall seasons. However, groundwater contributions are negatively related to mean t_s in all seasons. Finally, we found that elevation and mean basin slope are negatively related to mean t_s in all seasons, indicating that steep basins tend to stay cooler because of shorter residence times to gain heat from their surroundings. This model can potentially be used to predict climate change impacts on t_s across the USA. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.