地震应急指挥中心可视化中控系统的设计与实现

介绍地震应急指挥中心中控系统的建设情况，阐述了可视化智能中控系统的功能需求、逻辑结构和应用框架结构，分析了可视化智能中控系统的功能特点，并对中控系统的技术发展和应用进行展望。     

准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷西斜坡三叠系百口泉组扇三角洲优质储集层预测

针对准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷西斜坡风南地区三叠系百口泉组扇三角洲砂岩物性空间变化大、优质储集层(孔隙度大于7.4%,渗透率大于0.05×10^-3μm²)预测难的问题,在沉积岩石学、地震沉积学以及地震反演和解释理论指导下,综合利用测井、岩心和三维地震等资料开展了高精度层序地层划分、沉积微相描述和优质储集层地震反演研究。建立了风南井区四级层序地层格架,明确了扇三角洲多期水进水退的充填过程,指出SSQ3和SSQ5是优质储集层的发育层系;识别出扇三角洲平原分流河道、河道间和扇三角洲前缘水下分流水道、河口坝、席状砂等沉积微相,指出扇三角洲平原是优质储集层发育相带;通过应用高分辨层序地层纵向边界和沉积相横向边界约束,进行分层相控叠后地震波阻抗反演,提升储集层预测精度,在SSQ3和SSQ5预测5个优质储集层发育区,提出3口井的井位建议,钻探均获工业油流。     

京津冀夏季强降水下冰云宏微观特征

根据Aqua MODIS 2级云产品和Cloudsat的2级产品资料，结合降水数据和MODIS L1B级辐射率数据，对发生在京津冀地区夏季的三次强降水过程中冰云的宏微观物理量的特征进行分析，并探究这些物理量和降水强度的关系。结果表明：在水平分布中，强降水过程中降水强度高值区内云相为冰云，冰云云顶高度在8~17 km，冰云粒子有效半径、冰云光学厚度、冰水路径分别最高可达60 μm、 150、 5 000 g?m^-2；冰云光学厚度、冰水路径、冰云云顶高度随降水强度增大而增大。在垂直分布中，冰云主要分布在3.5 km以上，发生强降水站点的冰云为深对流云，冰云粒子有效半径、冰水含量、冰云粒子数浓度分别最高可达150 μm、 3 000 mg?m^-3 、 500 L^-1；冰云粒子有效半径高值区存在于云层中下部，且随高度上升而减小，冰云粒子数浓度高值区存在于云层中上部，且随高度上升而增加，冰水含量高值区则存在于云层中部；冰云粒子有效半径、冰水含量、冰云粒子数浓度在9 km以上随降水强度增大而增大。     

Modelling the flexural buckling failure of stratified rock slopes based on the multilayer beam model

The buckling failure of stratified rock slopes intersected by a set of steep discontinuities that are approximately parallel to the slope surface is frequently encountered while constructing railways and roadways in mountainous areas. In this study, an analytical approach based on the energy equilibrium principle is presented to solve the flexural buckling stability of stratified rock slopes within the framework of multilayer beam theory. The generalized HoekBrown failure criterion is introduced to reflect the influences of slope size(scale effects) on the buckling stability. Subsequently, numerical and physical modellings from previous literatures are employed to validate the proposed approach. Furthermore, a practical case of Bawang Mountain landslide is also used for the comparative analysis. The study shows that the present analytical approach is capable to provide a more reasonable assessment for the buckling failure of stratified rock slopes, compared with several existing analytical approaches. Finally, a detailed parametric study is implemented, and the results indicate that the effects of rock strength, rock deformation modulus, geological strength index, layer thickness and disturbance degree of rock mass on the buckling failure of stratified rock slopes are more significant than that of rock type and slope angle.     

Effect of Shale Reservoir Characteristics on Shale Oil Movability in the Lower Third Member of the Shahejie Formation,Zhanhua Sag

To reveal the effect of shale reservoir characteristics on the movability of shale oil and its action mechanism in the lower third member of the Shahejie Formation(Es3l), samples with different features were selected and analyzed using N2 adsorption, high-pressure mercury injection capillary pressure(MICP), nuclear magnetic resonance(NMR), high-speed centrifugation, and displacement image techniques. The results show that shale pore structure characteristics control shale oil movability directly. Movable oil saturation has a positive relationship with pore volume for radius > 2 μm, as larger pores often have higher movable oil saturation, indicating that movable oil is present in relatively larger pores. The main reasons for this are as follows. The relatively smaller pores often have oil-wetting properties because of organic matter, which has an unfavorable effect on the flow of oil, while the relatively larger pores are often wetted by water, which is helpful to shale oil movability. The rich surface provided by the relatively smaller pores is beneficial to the adsorption of immovable oil. Meanwhile, the relatively larger pores create significant pore volume for movable oil. Moreover, the larger pores often have good pore connectivity. Pores and fractures are interconnected to form a complex fracture network, which provides a good permeability channel for shale oil flow. The smaller pores are mostly distributed separately;thus, they are not conducive to the flow of shale oil. The mineral composition and fabric macroscopically affect the movability of shale oil. Calcite plays an active role in shale oil movability by increasing the brittleness of shale and is more likely to form micro-cracks under the same stress background. Clay does not utilize shale oil flow because of its large specific surface area and its block effect. The bedding structure increases the large-scale storage space and improves the connectivity of pores at different scales, which is conducive to the movability of shale oil.     

碳化对加填料氯氧镁胶凝材料力学性能的影响

以添加不同掺量填料的氯氧镁水泥(MOC)试件为基体,在空气和碳化箱中分别养护至规定龄期,研究碳化对掺加填料MOC力学性能的影响,并与空气环境进行对比,运用XRD和SEM分析碳化后水化产物和微观结构的变化规律。结果表明,28 d龄期内,随着填料掺量的增加MOC试件碳化后的抗折强度均有所增加,碳化后的抗压强度均有提升,碳化过程反应生成了MgCO_3,不同碳化龄期的主要物相均为5Mg(OH)_2·MgCl_2·8H_2O(5相),而掺加填料不影响MOC的水化产物的组成。     

三峡库区龙门寨危岩体崩塌产生涌浪研究

长江两岸高耸的危岩体对航道、沿岸居民带来巨大安全隐患。大宁河属于长江一级支流，龙门寨危岩体位于大宁河上，距离巫山县城仅1 km。利用FLOW-3D软件，模拟了145 m、175 m两种水位工况下龙门寨危岩体崩塌产生涌浪过程和涌浪传播过程。模拟结果表明，涌浪在145 m水位工况下最大浪高约为17.9 m，175 m水位工况下最大浪高约为11.6 m；在巫山县的五个码头处，两种水位工况最大涌浪爬高分别约为10.9 m、3.8 m；根据涌浪高度，对大宁河进行危险分区，145 m水位工况下极高危险区长度约4.4 km，很高危险区长度约1.9 km；175 m水位工况下极高危险区长度约3.0 km，很高危险区长度约1.0 km。研究结果有助于防控龙门寨危岩体潜在涌浪灾害危害，保障大宁河航道和巫山县码头安全，同时也为三峡库区滑坡涌浪灾害提供了预警依据。      

Morphodynamics of an Artificial Cobble Beach in Tianquan Bay,Xiamen, China

By tracking and monitoring the profile configuration, topography, and hydrodynamic factors of an artificial cobble beach in Tianquan Bay, Xiamen, China over three consecutive years after its completion, we analyzed the evolution of its profile configuration and plane morphology, and its storm response characteristics. The evolution of the profile configuration of the artificial cobble beach in Tianquan Bay can be divided into four stages. The beach was unstable during the initial stage after the beach nourishment the profile configuration changed obviously, and an upper concave composite cobble beach formed gradually, which was characterized by a steep upper part and a gentle lower part. In the second stage, the cobble beach approached dynamic equilibrium with minor changes in the profile configuration. At the third stage the beach was in a high-energy state under the influence of Typhoon Meranti, and the response of the artificial cobble beach differed significantly from that of the low-tide terrace sandy beach. Within a short time, there was net onshore transport of cobbles in the cross-shore direction. The beach face was eroded, the beach berm was accumulated, and the slope of the beach was steepened considerably. In the alongshore direction, there was notable transport of cobbles on the beach from east to west along the shore, and the total volume of the beach decreased by 4.5×103 m~3, which accounted for 50% of the total amount of beach volume lost within three years. The fourth stage was the restoration stage after the typhoon, characterized by a little gentler profile slope and the increase in width and the decrease in height of beach berm. Because of the action of waves and the wave-driven longshore current caused by the specific terrain and landform conditions along the coast(e.g., coastal headlands, near-shore artificial structures, and reefs), the coastline of the artificial cobble beach gradually evolved from being essentially parallel to the artificial coast upon completion to a slightly curved parabolic shape, and three distinct erosion hotspots were formed on the west side of the cape and the artificial drainpipe, and the reefs. Generally, the adoption of cobbles for beach nourishment on this macro-tidal coast beach with severe erosion has yielded excellent stability and adaptability.     

2015年台风“彩虹”过境后下山冷急流引起的南海北部海域异常海面降温

This study deals with a unusual cooling event after Typhoon Mujigea passed over the northern South China Sea(SCS) in October 2015. We analyze the satellite sea surface temperature(SST) time series from October 3 to 18,2015 and find that the cooling process in the coastal ocean had two different stages. The first stage occurred immediately after typhoon passage on October 3, and reached a maximum SST drop of –2℃ on October 7 as the usual cold wake after typhoon. The second stage or the unusual extended cooling event occurred after 7d of the typhoon passage, and lasted for 5d from October 10 to 15. The maximum SST cooling was –4℃ and occurred after 12d of typhoon passage. The mechanism analysis results indicate that after landing and moving northwestward to the Yunnan-Guizhou Plateau(YGP), Typhoon Mujigea(2015) met the westerly wind front on October 5. The lowpressure and positive-vorticity disturbances to the front triggered meridional air flow and low-pressure trough,thus induced a katabatic cold jet downward from the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau(QTP) passing through the YGP to the northwestern SCS. The second cooling reached the maximum SST drop 4d later after the maximum air temperature drop of –9℃ on October 11. The simultaneous air temperature and SST observations at three coastal stations reveal that it is this katabatic cold jet intrusion to lead the unusual SST cooling event.     

航空重力垂直梯度探测潜艇方法研究

航空重力梯度测量属于被动探测,抗干扰能力强,如果能和其他探潜手段相配合将极大地提高航空搜潜的效率。针对航空重力梯度测量是否能够用于探测潜艇的问题,依据俄亥俄级弹道导弹核潜艇的结构特点,建立了适用于重力梯度计算的潜艇模型,分别给出了潜艇外壳、内部质量亏损产生的重力垂直梯度的计算方法,并对不同精度重力梯度仪可探测的潜艇重力垂直梯度值进行了计算,从航空反潜的角度对探测潜艇效果进行了分析。经计算表明,如航空重力梯度仪精度达到10~(-2) E,将具备一定的实际探潜效能;如精度达到10~(-4) E,反潜机搜索宽度可与现有航空磁性探潜相当。