Reducing uncertainty in stochastic streamflow generation and reservoir sizing by combining observed,reconstructed and projected streamflow

Reservoir sizing is one of the most important aspects of water resources engineering as the storage in a reservoir must be sufficient to supply water during extended droughts. Typically, observed streamflow is used to stochastically generate multiple realizations of streamflow to estimate the required storage based on the Sequent Peak Algorithm (SQP). The main limitation in this approach is that the parameters of the stochastic model are purely derived from the observed record (limited to less than 80 years of data) which does not have information related to prehistoric droughts. Further, reservoir sizing is typically estimated to meet future increase in water demand, and there is no guarantee that future streamflow over the planning period will be representative of past streamflow records. In this context, reconstructed streamflow records, usually estimated based on tree ring chronologies, provide better estimates of prehistoric droughts, and future streamflow records over the planning period could be obtained from general circulation models (GCMs) which provide 30 year near-term climate change projections. In this study, we developed paleo streamflow records and future streamflow records for 30 years are obtained by forcing the projected precipitation and temperature from the GCMs over a lumped watershed model. We propose combining observed, reconstructed and projected streamflows to generate synthetic streamflow records using a Bayesian framework that provides the posterior distribution of reservoir storage estimates. The performance of the Bayesian framework is compared to a traditional stochastic streamflow generation approach. Findings based on the split-sample validation show that the Bayesian approach yielded generated streamflow traces more representative of future streamflow conditions than the traditional stochastic approach thereby, reducing uncertainty on storage estimates corresponding to higher reliabilities. Potential strategies for improving future streamflow projections and its utility in reservoir sizing and capacity expansion projects are also discussed.     

南海东北部内潮的模态结构和传播

The evolution of energy, energy flux and modal structure of the internal tides(ITs) in the northeastern South China Sea is examined using the measurements at two moorings along a cross-slope section from the deep continental slope to the shallow continental shelf. The energy of both diurnal and semidiurnal ITs clearly shows a～14-day spring-neap cycle, but their phases lag that of barotropic tides, indicating that ITs are not generated on the continental slope. Observations of internal tidal energy flux suggest that they may be generated at the Luzon Strait and propagate west-northwest to the continental slope in the northwestern SCS. Because the continental slope is critical-supercritical with respect to diurnal ITs, about 4.6 kJ/m~2 of the incident energy and 8.7 kW/m of energy flux of diurnal ITs are reduced from the continental slope to the continental shelf. In contrast, the semidiurnal internal tides enter the shelf because of the sub-critical topography with respect to semidiurnal ITs.From the continental slope to the shelf, the vertical structure of diurnal ITs shows significant variation, with dominant Mode 1 on the deep slope and dominant higher modes on the shelf. On the contrary, the vertical structure of the semidiurnal ITs is stable, with dominant Mode 1.     

西藏羌北高原多格错仁盐湖中更新世晚期以来的环境演化记录

通过对西藏藏北高原多格错仁盐湖湖岸3101cm高度剖面进行地形地貌、地层沉积特征、矿物学特征及粒度、频率磁化率等气候环境变化指标的分析研究发现，整个剖面反映出大致6个较大的气候变化过程：233. 3kaBP～223. 5kaBP气候波动较大，总体趋势气候趋于干冷，期间出现过两次较温暖气候，之后气候逐渐变冷；在223. 5kaBP～213. 6kaBP总体变化为气温大幅度上升，但在期间有一次较大的相对冷干过程；213. 6kaBP～170kaBP之间总体变化气候趋于变冷，中间有2次明显的气候变暖湿过程及两次冷干过程；170kaBP～117. 1kaBP气候转为明显湿热；117. 1kaBP～75. 6kaBP气候变化趋势明显降低；75. 6kaBP～56. 7kaBP气候又明显上升达到湿热状态。以上气候波动规律与极地冰芯记录及深海氧同位素记录的古气候波动规律有很好的一致性，同时本盐湖区与柴达木盆地察尔汗盐湖区的CH0310钻孔及青海湖南岸二郎剑阶地的 QH 86钻孔所揭示的中更新世晚期以来的气候变化的分析对比，发现西藏羌北的多格错仁盐湖区与青海的察尔汗盐湖区及青海湖湖区在更新世中晚期以来的气候环境变迁存在极好的可比性，说明青藏高原的气候演化在中晚更新世以来基本具有一致性，在时间上的微小超前与滞后具有区域上的细微变化，说明气候变迁在不同的区域又具有各自的独特性。     

大凌河河口地区中更新世晚期以来沉积环境演化

大凌河河口地区LZK06孔40m以浅岩心的沉积学、古生物学和年代学等综合研究以及该地区LZK02- 04钻孔资料，揭示了研究区中更新世晚期以来经历了两次海侵- 海退旋回，依次形成了中更新世晚期湖相/河流相 SymbolnB@ 晚更新世海相- 湖相/河流相 SymbolnB@ 全新世海相- 河流相地层。全新世早中期由于物源供给很少，研究区处于长达约10ka的饥饿滞留相沉积环境，平均沉积速率仅约0. 02~0. 05cm/a。全新世晚期约1500a cal BP以来，由于人类活动导致水土流失，河流输砂量增加，研究区开始了快速加积过程，平均沉积速率约0. 9~1. 2cm/a，下辽河平原被快速充填，开始成陆。与全球海面变化时空分布特征的对比，推断辽东湾的第II海相层发育于MIS 5- MIS 3早期，第I海相层发育于MIS 1阶段高海面时期。晚更新世以来频繁的海面升降是辽东湾泥质海岸带地层和环境演化的主要控制因素。     

钢筋-沥青隔震层非线性震动特性研究

为了研究钢筋-沥青隔震层的材料与几何非线性震动特性，对钢筋-沥青隔震结构进行了振动台试验，分析了结构在不同加速度幅值输入时的隔震性能。同时，在钢材的应力-应变关系基础上，考虑构件竖向力的二次矩效应，提出了钢筋-沥青隔震层骨架曲线的计算方法，并结合双线型恢复力模型的滞回规则，建立了相应的恢复力模型。利用建立的恢复力模型，编制程序进行了弹塑性时程分析，并与试验结果作对比。结果表明:当钢筋-沥青隔震层的受力钢筋进入弹塑性阶段时，隔震层能够吸收大部分地震能量，显著降低上部结构的地震反应；弹塑性时程分析结果与试验结果吻合较好，由此建立的恢复力模型准确并且适用，可为钢筋-沥青隔震层的工程设计与非线性地震反应分析提供参考。     

Characterization of Frequency and Aggregation of the Antarctic Krill (<Emphasis Type="Italic">Euphausia superba</Emphasis>) Using Acoustics

In this study, the dB difference and characteristics of krill swarms inhabiting Subarea 48.1, which includes the west and south of the South Shetland Island and the Elephant Island peripheries, were estimated to distinguish Antarctic krill, using acoustics. From April 13 to 24, 2016, acoustic data were collected along 24 survey lines using the frequencies 38 and 120 kHz, and middle trawling was performed at 7 stations. Using the difference between the dB values of two volume backscattering strength (Sv) frequencies (38 and 120 kHz), a clear acoustic distinction could be made between Antarctic krill (4.9 to 12.0 dB) and fish (?4.0 to ?0.2 dB). The distributions and mean Sv of krill swarms in the Elephant Island peripheries and south of South Shetland Island were higher than those in the west of South Shetland Island. The mean length/ height ratio of krill swarms in the west of the South Shetland Island (64.5) was higher than that in the south (35.9) and the Elephant Island peripheries (33.8), with the length of the aggregations exceeding their height. Most krill swarms were distributed between the surface layer (less than 10 m below sea level) and within 200 m of water depth. These results are expected to serve as baseline data for evaluating krill density and biomass by distinguishing them from fish, using acoustics.     

Assessing conservation practices in Amalacaxco Gorge (Izta-Popo National Park,Central Mexico) using fallout ~(137)Cs and Optically Stimulated Luminescence (OSL)

This study aims to assess conservation practices in Izta-Popo National Park(Central Mexico) by evaluating the mechanisms of sediment transfer. We applied a methodology based on fallout ~(137)Cs and optically stimulated luminescence(OSL) analysis. This was tested in the upper catchment of Amalacaxco Gorge, selected for being one of the sectors of the park in which man-made actions have been implemented in last decades to favor forest growth in the alpine grassland and to reduce the effect of water runoff. We quantified the ~(137)Cs activity using gamma and beta spectrometry of fine sediment grains extracted from the surface of parcels of 0.4 m2 in areas of natural forest, natural alpine grassland, alpine grassland with conservation practices, ravines and trails. In general, ~(137)Cs values increases as local slope decreases as it was expected. The natural forest is the most stable area in terms of soil erosion and sediment accumulation and, mean ~(137)Cs activity was taken as reference to assess cumulative zones, with higher ~(137)Cs values and erosive, with lower. We found that trails are accumulative surfaces but in other areas, erosion predominates. Man-made ditches, trenches and afforestation in the alpine grassland have higher ~(137)Cs values than thenatural grassland, which indicates that conservation practices are limiting the sediment transfer from hillslopes to channels, however, soil retention is less than in the natural grassland. Additionally, we evaluated the luminescence(OSL) values obtained from samples extracted from the sediment transported in ravines that are cutting into different sectors of the study area to assess the grade of resetting of fluvial materials. These luminescence results indicated that the sediment transported in ravines that are cutting into the natural forest and alpine grassland is bleached more efficiently than the sediment transported in the alpine grassland with conservation practices. Results of fallout ~(137)Cs and luminescence strongly suggest that man-made actions in this part of the Izta-Popo National Park are dramatically modifying the natural mechanisms of sediment transfer and favoring soil erosion. We conclude that made ditches, trenches and afforestation are not an effective conservation practice in Amalacaxco Gorge because they are promoting soil erosion instead of reducing it.     

巢湖杭埠河流域湖相沉积物多指标揭示的全新世以来环境演变

在巢湖杭埠河流域中的古湖盆中心——三河圩区获取28.6 m长的湖相岩芯（SZK1507孔），利用AMS¹⁴C测年技术建立可靠的地层年代序列，通过对SZK1507孔738 cm以上段湖相沉积物平均粒径、磁化率、总氮（TN）、总有机碳（TOC）及C/N的综合分析，高分辨率重建了巢湖杭埠河流域全新世以来的古环境演变过程.结果表明，本区域的环境变化过程可以分为4个阶段，阶段Ⅰ（约10050—9700 cal.a B.P.）与阶段Ⅲ（约9250—5300 cal.a B.P.）气候较为湿润，巢湖水位较高，平均粒径、磁化率值较低，TN、TOC、C/N也偏低；阶段Ⅱ（约9700—9250 cal.a B.P.）与阶段Ⅳ（约5300 cal.a B.P.以来）气候干燥，巢湖水量减少，水位降低，平均粒径、磁化率值、TN、TOC、C/N均较高.一些全球范围内显著发生的气候突变事件在SZK1507孔沉积记录中也有体现，如9.3、8.2和4.2 ka B.P.事件等.将巢湖杭埠河流域10000 cal.a B.P.以来的平均粒径、磁化率、TN、TOC、C/N沉积记录与全新世以来的北纬30°夏季太阳辐射量、太阳黑子数、火山喷发对大气中硫酸盐含量贡献率等进行对比，发现巢湖杭埠河流域全新世气候突变事件主要受控于北半球夏季太阳辐射量变化、太阳活动以及火山活动等因素，并与它们之间复杂的响应机制有关.     

准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷西斜坡三叠系百口泉组扇三角洲优质储集层预测

针对准噶尔盆地玛湖凹陷西斜坡风南地区三叠系百口泉组扇三角洲砂岩物性空间变化大、优质储集层(孔隙度大于7.4%,渗透率大于0.05×10^-3μm²)预测难的问题,在沉积岩石学、地震沉积学以及地震反演和解释理论指导下,综合利用测井、岩心和三维地震等资料开展了高精度层序地层划分、沉积微相描述和优质储集层地震反演研究。建立了风南井区四级层序地层格架,明确了扇三角洲多期水进水退的充填过程,指出SSQ3和SSQ5是优质储集层的发育层系;识别出扇三角洲平原分流河道、河道间和扇三角洲前缘水下分流水道、河口坝、席状砂等沉积微相,指出扇三角洲平原是优质储集层发育相带;通过应用高分辨层序地层纵向边界和沉积相横向边界约束,进行分层相控叠后地震波阻抗反演,提升储集层预测精度,在SSQ3和SSQ5预测5个优质储集层发育区,提出3口井的井位建议,钻探均获工业油流。     

浅述深水水道的形态学特征

目前深水水道的分类方案较多,本文基于深水水道的形态学特征,且聚焦于单一型深水水道,将其划分为顺直型(曲率介于1～1.25)、低弯度S型(曲率介于1.25～1.5)和高弯度S型(曲率1.5)。其中,顺直型水道侵蚀作用最强,往往不发育天然堤沉积,无侧向加积;低弯度S型水道发育天然堤,并具有侧向加积;高弯度S型天然堤及侧向加积最为发育,决口扇常与之伴生。深水水道的曲率是水道形态的直观表现,曲率大小主要受深水地貌即深水地形坡度的影响。在上陆坡区域,地形坡度较大,沉积物能量强,深水水道以顺直型为主。中陆坡区域,随着地形坡度的减缓,水道的弯曲形态也逐渐增加,形成低弯度S型,直至下陆坡,水道演变为高弯度的S型。