CONDITIONAL NONLINEAR OPTIMAL PERTURBATIONS: APPLICATION IN TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECASTS

Considering the feature of tropical cyclones (TCs) that strong positive vorticity exists in the lower layers of troposphere, this study proposed to use vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function to find the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP), which was largely different from those previous studies using total energy of perturbed forecast variables. The CNOP was obtained by an ensemble-based approach. All of the sensitive areas determined by CNOP with vorticity at 850 hPa as cost function for the three cases were located over the TC core region and its vicinity. The impact of the CNOP-based adaptive observations on TC forecasts was evaluated with three cases via observational system simulation experiments (OSSEs). Results showed obvious improvements in TC intensity or track forecasts due to the CNOP-based adaptive observations, which were related to the main error source of the verification area, i.e., intensity error or location error.     

京津冀地区低层局地大气环流的气候特征研究

本文采用2007-2016年的中尺度数值模拟结果和15个地面气象站观测资料,定义了局地风场表征风速,研究京津冀平原地区局地大气环流日变化的气候特征,并对区域大气污染及其输送的影响进行分析。此外,对2016年12月30日至2017年1月7日北京地区跨年大气重污染过程进行了个例分析。得到结论:京津冀平原地区低空风场变化是天气系统与局地大气环流共同作用的结果,山谷风环流致使太行山和燕山沿线平原地区大气边界层内的长年主导风向为偏北和偏南;太行山和燕山沿线地区山谷风环流本身呈顺时针旋转的日变化特征,夜间至早晨谷风转向山风,午后至夜间山风转向谷风;在午后谷风向山风转向期间,容易形成沿太行山东麓和燕山南麓、自南向东北的"弓形"气流输送通道,此气流输送通道在1月于21时左右形成,持续时间大约3 h,在7月于18时左右形成,持续时间可达9 h;冬季午后至晚间盛行谷风时,受山体的阻挡,污染物容易在山前累积,导致污染浓度增高;夏季同样的情况会发生在后半夜。     

山东半岛南部近岸海域碎屑矿物对中小河流的物源响应

对山东半岛南部近岸海域的106个表层沉积物样品及大沽河、五龙河和乳山河的94个表层沉积物样品进行碎屑矿物分析,系统地研究了碎屑矿物的分布特征及物源指示。研究区共鉴定出40种重矿物和13种轻矿物,重矿物以普通角闪石、绿帘石、黑云母和自生黄铁矿为主,轻矿物以石英、斜长石、钾长石和风化云母为主。根据碎屑矿物组合特征,将研究区分为4个矿物区:Ⅰ区为胶州湾口至崂山头的附近海域;Ⅱ_1亚区为丁字湾和鳌山湾附近水深约15m以浅的海域,Ⅱ_2亚区为研究区东南部水深20m的远岸区;Ⅲ区处于Ⅱ区和Ⅳ区的过渡带;Ⅳ区为乳山口西南部近岸海域。Ⅰ区和Ⅱ区的矿物组合均为普通角闪石-绿帘石-石英-长石,Ⅰ区和Ⅱ_1亚区受大沽河、五龙河和乳山河输入的物质及沿岸基岩、岛屿风化碎屑的影响较大,Ⅱ_2亚区主要为晚更新世低海平面时形成的陆架残留沉积。Ⅲ区矿物组合为普通角闪石-石英-长石-片状矿物,Ⅳ区矿物组合为云母类-自生黄铁矿-普通角闪石-石英,Ⅲ区、Ⅳ区物源多样,黄河物质对两区贡献显著。     

中尺度对流系统与东北暴雨的关系

利用2005-2007年6～8月FY-2C卫星逐30min红外云图资料,对东北及其邻近地区中尺度对流系统（包括椭圆型（MCC型）和持续拉长型（PECS型））进行普查分析,并把中尺度对流系统（MCS）分成3种尺度：MCC（或PECS）、MαCS和MβCS,统计分析了它们的时空分布及其与暴雨的关系。结果表明,MCS主要分布...     

渤海西岸暴雨中尺度对流系统的结构及成因

利用卫星、雷达和加密自动站等监测资料,结合VDRAS系统资料和1°×1° NCEP再分析资料,对造成黑昼和暴雨的中尺度对流系统的空间、热动力结构特征和发生、发展及维持原因进行了分析。结果表明:2004—2009年渤海西岸圆形α-中尺度对流系统有别于南方,其中只有16%可发展为中尺度复合体;黑昼现象是影响系统的特殊性所致。突发性暴雨的制造者是α-中尺度对流系统西端不断新生的β-中尺度对流系统,其发生、发展、维持与边界层内冷池外流、对流层低层 (1.3~2.4 km) 侵入的西北气流与西南气流形成的辐合线或交汇线有密切关系。α-中尺度对流系统的上升速度中心在500 hPa附近,多个β-中尺度对流系统分别具有独自的垂直气流和弱边界层环流。α-中尺度对流系统内部扰动温度呈下负上正的垂直分布,促使了不稳定层结趋于稳定;冷池呈东厚西薄的楔形结构,有利于β-中尺度对流系统发展维持。     

Characteristics of intensity change in tropical cyclones affecting the South China Sea from 1977 to 2007

The best track data of tropical cyclones (TCs) provided by Regional Specialized Meteorological Center (RSMC) Tokyo for the South China Sea (SCS) from 1977 to 2007 are employed to study the spatiotemporal variations (for a period of 12 hours) and the rapid (slow) intensification (RI/SI) of TCs with different intensity. The main results are as follows. (1) Over this period, the tropical storms (TSs) and severe tropical storms (STSs) mostly intensify or are steady while the typhoons (TYs) mostly weaken. The stronger a TC is initially, the more observation of its intensification and the less its variability will be; the more observation of its weakening is, the larger its variability will be. (2) The TC intensifies the fastest at 0000 UTC while weakening the fastest at 1200 UTC. (3) In the intensifying state, TSs, STSs, and TYs are mainly active in the northeastern, central-eastern, and central SCS respectively. The weakening cases mainly distribute over waters east off Hainan Island and Vietnam and west off the Philippines. Some cases of TSs and STSs weaken over the central SCS. (4) The RI cases form farther south in contrast to the SI cases. The RI cases are observed in regions where there are weaker vertical shear and easterly components at 200 hPa. The RI cases also have stronger mid-and lower-level warm-core structure and smaller radii of 15.4 m/s winds. The SI cases have slightly higher SST.     

X荧光光谱仪在实验室-调查船测定海洋沉积物元素的对比研究

运用Epsilon3系列小型能量色散X射线荧光光谱仪,选取水系沉积物、海洋沉积物等标准物质31个,采用压片法制样,建立了该仪器对海洋沉积物中34种元素定量测试的分析方法,该方法检出限低,精密度高,准确性好。在海上调查期间运用该仪器与方法,对深海沉积物样品进行了现场测试,调查船上的测定值与陆上实验室内的测定值基本一致,两者平均相对偏差基本小于10%,结果表明运用该分析方法,Epsilon3系列小型能量色散X射线荧光光谱仪能快速、准确测定沉积物中多种元素,为及时判断现场资源分布情况提供依据,减少取样的盲目性,这将为我国海洋地质调查工作提供新的技术支持。     

东亚夏季风的年际变化及其对环流和降水的影响

Using NCEP/NCAR reanalysis geopotential height (GHT) and wind at 850 hPa, GHT at 500 hPa, precipitation rate, sea level pressure (SLP) and precipitation observations from more than 600 stations nationwide in June–August from 1951 to 2006, and focusing on the East Asia-West Pacific region (10°–80°N, 70°–180°E), interannual variation of East Asian summer monsoon (EASM) and its correlations with general circulation and precipitation patterns are studied by using statistical diagnostic methods such as 9-point high pass filtering, empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis, composite analysis and other statistical diagnosis, etc. It is concluded as follows: (1) EOF analysis of SLP in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows the existence of the zonal dipole oscillation mode (APD) between the Mongolia depression and the West Pacific high, and APD index can be used as an intensity index of EASM. (2) EOF analysis of GHT anomalies at 500 hPa in the East Asia-West Pacific region shows that the first EOF mode is characterized with an obvious meridional East Asian pattern (EAP), and EAP index can also be used as an EASM intensity index. (3) The composite analysis of high/low APD index years reveals the close correlation of APD index with EAP at 500 hPa (or 850 hPa). The study shows an obvious opposite correlation exists between APD index and EAP index with a correlation coefficient of −0.23, which passes the confidence test at 0.10 level. (4) Both APD and EAP indexes are closely correlated with precipitation during flood-prone season in China and precipitation rate over the East Asia-West Pacific region. The significant correlation area at 5% confidence level is mainly located from the southern area of the Yangtze River valley to the ocean around southern Japan, and the former is a positive correlation and the latter is a negative one. Foundation: Cooperative Project funded by the Ministry of Science and Technology of the People’s Republic of China, No.2007DFB20210; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.90502003; JICA China-Japan Technical Cooperative Project “China-Japanese Cooperative Research Center on Meteorological Disasters”. Author: Yu Shuqiu, Associate Professor, specialized in climate and climate change.     

深度学习驱动的地震目录构建:PhaseNet和EqT模型的对比与评估

随着地震台站数目的增加,以纯人工的分析方式拾取震相到时并编制地震目录难以满足地震目录实时自动化构建的要求。随着人工智能技术的发展,涌现出多个用于震相拾取的深度学习模型,为高分辨率地震目录的自动化构建提供了机遇,但这些模型在不同应用场景中的性能和适用性仍不明确。以2019年美国加利福尼亚州Ridgecrest地震序列和2019年中国四川威远Ms 5.4地震序列为例,对当前两种先进的震相拾取深度学习模型PhaseNet和EqT（含EqT1和EqT2两套参数）的性能及其构建的地震目录的完备性和准确性进行了测试和评估。结果表明,尽管PhaseNet和EqT最初是使用来自不同地区的数据集训练的,在跨区域应用时仍然能够取得良好的效果,到时拾取的精度可以达到十几个毫秒,与人工分析相当。EqT1即便采用低检测阈值,也能保持很高的查准率,误报少,所构建地震目录的准确性更好,但查全率有限,检测到的地震数量少于PhaseNet。PhaseNet的拾取效果随阈值选择的不同具有较大的弹性,采用中低阈值时具有较高的查全率,采用高阈值则可以达到与EqT1相当的查准率。与EqT1和PhaseNet相比,EqT2性能较差,不推荐使用。