1999年上海梅雨异常的环流特征及其成因

对１９９９年上海地区入梅早、出梅迟、梅雨期长、梅雨量超历史纪录的环流特征和原因作了初步统计分析,其中分别讨论了西太平洋副带高压强度及脊线位置、东亚夏季风强度经指数及爆发迟早、低续热带地区对流活动、台风的频数及移劝路径等天气气候因素与１９９９年上海地区梅坏处主异常的关系,结果表明：１９９９年副热带高压强度偏弱、主体位置偏南、偏东,东亚夏季风爆发早、强度指数偏弱,ＩＴＣＺ赤道辐合带）不活跃,台风位置偏     

1989年夏季长江三角洲地区的强对流天气业务预报试验

文章介绍了1989年夏季在长江三角洲地区进行的强对流天气业务预报试验中基地中心的系统硬件设置,加密观测站网,GMS卫星实时接收和图像处理系统,数字化雷达站网,短时预报中心工作站及产品,短时预报业务工作流程,预报技巧评分等。通过与中心气象台互封闭式地作预报结果的比较和一些实例分析,指出建立VSRF系统后对强对流天气的预瞥水平有明显的提高。并超过美国PROFS 1983年的水平。     

Experiments in Forecasting Mesoscale Convective Weather over Changjiang Delta

The real time operational severe convective weather forecast experiment carried out during May to July in 1990 over the Changjiang Delta is briefly described. The heavy rainfall and severe conveetive weather forecast worksheets for the Changjiang Delta have been proposed and used in the daily forecasting. Results show that the ability of 0-12h convective weather prediction has been improved significantly after the development of the forecast methods and the establishment of a mesoscale forecast base at Shanghai Meteorological Center during 1986 to 1990.Three cases of convective weather systems (meso-alpha, meso-beta, meso-gamma) during the experiment period are described and discussed.     

强对流天气短期预报θ_(se)特型法的业务应用

θｓｅ特型法,一种强对流天气的短期预报方法,它把强对流天气预报化成预报引发背景条件下高能量预警型的强对流大概率事件．用此法在１９９５～１９９８年进行上海地区强对流天气短期预报的试验,准确率达８９％。     

强对流实时短期预报业务应用

θｓｅ特型法是一种强对流天气的短期预报方法,它把强对流天气预报化成预报引发背影条件下高能量预警型的强对流大概率事件。１９９５～１９９８年在上海地区进行强对流实时短期预报,准确率达８９％。