太平洋暖池冷舌交汇区盐度变异机制及气候效应研究

热带中太平洋暖池冷舌交汇区既是冷暖水交汇的区域,也是高盐低盐水交汇之地,形成了以强烈的海表盐度锋、较浅的混合层和较厚的障碍层为显著特征的温盐结构。该区域还是不同类型厄尔尼诺(El Ni?o)发生发展的关键区域,也是气候模式模拟偏差比较集中的区域。为了研究该区域盐度过程及其时空变异,及其在多大程度上影响热带太平洋上层海洋热力动力结构和ENSO的发展变异这一重要科学问题,国家自然科学基金重点项目"暖池冷舌交汇区盐度变异机制及气候效应研究"于2017年7月正式立项。该项目拟解决的关键科学问题包括:(1)融合多源数据刻画交汇区盐度的三维结构及变异规律;(2)阐明影响盐度锋和障碍层不同时间尺度变异的主要过程及作用机理;(3)阐明交汇区盐度变异,特别是障碍层和盐度锋变异,是如何以及在多大程度上影响ENSO循环及其变异的。通过该项目的实施,有望在热带海洋动力学理论和ENSO动力学理论方面取得突破,为提高ENSO预报水平提供新的思路和依据。     

“一带一路”区域气候变化事实、影响及可能风险

“一带一路”区域国家经济、政治发展极不平衡,随着全球气候变暖,区域内的自然环境、气候资源、水资源等都将面临着显著而复杂的变化,并且干旱、洪涝等多种气候灾害是“一带一路”区域可持续发展和重大基础设施建设面临的重大威胁之一。目前,“一带一路”倡议已经进入实质性建设阶段,沿线地区的气候变化及其灾害风险关乎“一带一路”倡议能否顺利实施及亚投行的投资安全。在此背景下,2016—2018年中国科学院地球科学学部实施了“‘一带一路’区域气候变化问题”咨询评议项目,项目针对该区域气候变化的事实、未来变化预估、气候变化的可能影响以及带来的潜在风险等问题进行了系统的调研,并开展了若干分析和研究。经过两年的努力,项目组完成了有关进展报告四份,包括一份总报告和三份分报告。本文扼要地概括和介绍了项目取得的主要成果。     

An N-shape thermal front in the western South Yellow Sea in winter

An N-shape thermal front in the western South Yellow Sea (YS) in winter was detected using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiation (AVHRR) Sea Surface Temperature data and in-situ observations with a merged front-detecting method. The front, which exists from late October through early March, consists of western and eastern wings extending roughly along the northeast-southwest isobaths with a southeastward middle segment across the 20–50 m isobaths. There are north and south inflexions connecting the middle segment with the western and eastern wings, respectively. The middle segment gradually moves southwestward from November through February with its length increasing from 62 km to 107 km and the southern inflexion moving from 36.2°N to 35.3°N. A cold tongue is found to coexist with the N-shape front, and is carried by the coastal jet penetrating southward from the tip of the Shandong Peninsula into the western South YS as revealed by a numerical simulation. After departing from the coast, the jet flows as an anti-cyclonic recirculation below 10 m depth, trapping warmer water originally carried by the compensating Yellow Sea Warm Current (YSWC). A northwestward flowing branch of the YSWC is also found on the lowest level south of the front. The N-shape front initially forms between the cold tongue and warm water involved in the subsurface anti-cyclonical recirculation and extends upwards to the surface through vertical advection and mixing. Correlation analyses reveal that northerly and easterly winds tend to be favorable to the formation and extension of the N-shape front probably through strengthening of the coastal jet and shifting the YSWC pathway eastward, respectively.     

黄海暖流源区海表面温度锋面的结构及季节内演变

利用1985～2002年月均和每8天平均的AVHRR Pathfinder卫星海表面温度数据,分析了黄海暖流源区海表面温度锋面的分布特征及其季节和季节内演变过程的规律.分析结果表明,黄海暖流源区海表面温度锋面只在冬季及其前后出现,且是一个包含南北两支锋面的锋面系统,其北支锋面位于33°～34°N之间,大体呈东西走向,南支锋面沿长江浅滩边缘,呈西北东南走向,作者称之为黄海暖流源区锋面.该锋面从11月下旬于济州岛西部生成并向西北方向扩展,至1,2月份达到最大程度,于2月下旬后向东南方向退缩并在3月份至5月份之间消失.在该锋面系统的生长期和衰退期,其南北两支锋面有时于西端连接在一起而形成指向西北的舌状锋面.黄海暖流源区锋面的演变过程与黄海暖流的演变过程紧密相关,也对黄东海的质量和热量交换有重要影响.