西昆仑接收函数反演与构造解析

中法合作布设的青藏高原西昆仑叶城-噶尔(狮泉河)天然地震探测剖面穿越了西昆仑构造的主要构造单元, 通过对36个台站128个远震P波事件的接收函数分析,取得了各台站的接收函数随方位角和震中距变化的趋势, 分析了变化趋势与地壳构造的关系。通过台站平均接收函数的反演拟合,取得了120km深度范围以上的横波速度分布,综合地质构造解释,发现康西瓦断裂地表倾斜渐变为直立并略向南拖曳的现象,塔里木前陆盆地沉积与逆冲构造有比较明显的显示,同时推测了盆地下的滑脱构造。班公湖-怒江断裂也有向北俯冲的显示,得出了印藏碰撞远距离效应在西昆仑受阻,应力通过地表次级断裂释放,同时形成盆地沉积的前陆构造模式。     

中蒙干旱半干旱区冬、夏季地面气温时空变化特征分析(Ⅱ):7月

为整体地分析中蒙干旱半干旱区(中蒙干旱区)夏季气温的时空变化特征,利用中蒙干旱区内分布相对均匀的104个站点(包括5个“人造站”)1961—1997年7月的平均地面气温资料等,首先分析了该区夏季的平均气温场、气温年较差及日较差等背景;然后,对标准化的7月平均气温距平资料分别作了EOF和REOF分析。结果表明:(1)中蒙干旱区夏季的热量资源充足。夏季气温场分布的区域性特色更明显。(2)受纬度、地形高度及远离海洋等的影响,中蒙干旱区地面气温的年较差大,日较差也大,呈典型大陆性气候(大陆度高)的特色,但是区内的夏季气温年际变化小。(3)根据气温的EOF分析,中蒙干旱区夏季气温异常可粗分为全区一致型、准东西差异型、准南北差异型及准东北—西南差异型等4种常见分布模态;再根据REOF分析,可将该区夏季气温异常进一步细分为青海高原、高原东北侧、南疆、北疆、陕西甘南区、蒙古国西北部及东南部等7个分区。(4)近37年来,中蒙干旱区夏季气温增暖主要出现在高原东北侧和南疆区,强度比冬春季弱;在青海高原及蒙古国东南部气温还在变凉,区内各分区夏季气温变化也约有3~4年的周期。     

云南地区余震序列的能量衰减

利川判断地震序列能蕈释放衰减是否异常的Ec—k量板，汁算了云南及附近地区39次巾强地震序列的能量衰减系数k值。结果显示：①当判别指标k〉1时，地震序列能量衰减处于正常状态；当k≤1时，判断地震序列能量衰减出现异常，其后发生更大地震或强余震的町能什较大。②对云南地区中强地震序列的榆验表明，有74％的地震序列符合上述判别指标。③用相同的地震进行了地震序列频度衰减系数^值的计算，发现符合h值判别指标的地震序列占统计际本的锄％。④对日常地震跟踪临视中遇到的二次典型地震序列详细分析，发现用k值力。法无论对中小地震序列还是巨震序列，预测效果均较好。     

漯河市秋冬季大雾天气模型及预报

漯河市大雾多发生于秋末和初冬,且多开始于凌晨至08时之间,消散在08~12时;大雾产生在500hPa中纬度为平直西风环流中,地面图上对应为弱高压、鞍形场、均压场,风力0.5~3 m/s;连续几天湿度较大后低层冷空气南压,有利于大雾天气产生。大雾出现前12 h地面相对湿度、850 hPa和地面温差、925 hPa温度和风速与大雾有很好的相对性。据此,利用多元回归,建立了漯河大雾预报方程。     

Recent Progress in the Impact of the Tibetan Plateau on Climate in China

Studies of the impacts of the Tibetan Plateau （TP） on climate in China in the last four years are reviewed. It is reported that temperature and precipitation over the TP have increased during recent decades. From satellite data analysis, it is demonstrated that most of the precipitation over the TP is from deep convection clouds. Moreover, the huge TP mechanical forcing and extraordinary elevated thermal forcing impose remarkable impacts upon local circulation and global climate. In winter and spring, stream flow is deflected by a large obstacle and appears as an asymmetric dipole, making East Asia much colder than mid Asia in winter and forming persistent rainfall in late winter and early spring over South China. In late spring, TP heating contributes to the establishment and intensification of the South Asian high and the abrupt seasonal transition of the surrounding circulations. In summer, TP heating in conjunction with the TP air pump cause the deviating stream field to resemble a cyclonic spiral, converging towards and rising over the TP. Therefore, the prominent Asian monsoon climate over East Asia and the dry climate over mid Asia in summer are forced by both TP local forcing and Eurasian continental forcing.
Due to the longer memory of snow and soil moisture, the TP thermal status both in summer and in late winter and spring can influence the variation of Eastern Asian summer rainfall. A combined index using both snow cover over the TP and the ENSO index in winter shows a better seasonal forecast.
On the other hand, strong sensible heating over the Tibetan Plateau in spring contributes significantly to anchor the earliest Asian monsoon being over the eastern Bay of Bengal （BOB） and the western Indochina peninsula. Qualitative prediction of the BOB monsoon onset was attempted by using the sign of meridional temperature gradient in March in the upper troposphere, or at 400 hPa over the TP. It is also demonstrated by a numerical experiment and theoretical study that the heating over the TP lea     

滇东北地区峨眉山玄武岩铜矿成矿物质来源

针对滇东北峨眉山玄武岩分布区铜矿中矿石矿物及玄武岩的微量元素Co,Cr,Ni,Pb,Th,U以及铅同位素组成进行研究,结果显示:在玄武岩和矿石中,Pb平均丰度分别为7.87×10-6和7.13×10-6,Th平均丰度分别为5.27×10-6和6.27×10-6,U平均丰度分别为1.16×10-6和0.97×10-6;从Th,U,Pb的质量分数揭示了玄武岩和矿石物源的相似性;Co,Cr,Ni的质量分数除矿石Cr略低外,玄武岩和矿石的Co和Ni均大于上部地壳平均值,提供了成矿物质非上部地壳来源的信息;铜矿石中主要矿物铅同位素组成(206Pb/204Pb平均18.3442、07Pb/204Pb平均15.620 22、08Pb/204Pb平均38.653 9)与玄武岩铅同位素组成(206Pb/204Pb平均18.805 32、07Pb/204Pb平均15.602 72、08Pb/204Pb平均39.250 8)相似,在206Pb/204Pb-207Pb/204Pb和206Pb/204Pb-208Pb/204Pb图中,二者铅同位素组成呈线性排列,从而在铅同位素示踪上显示了二者具有相同的铅源。由此判定滇东北峨眉山玄武岩区3类铜矿的成矿物质是源自于该区的玄武岩。     

Minimal cut-based recursive decomposition algorithm for seismic reliability evaluation of lifeline networks

In this paper, a new probabilistic analytical approach, the minimal cut-based recursive decomposition algorithm (MCRDA), is presented to evaluate the seismic reliability of large-scale lifeline systems. Based on the minimal cut searching algorithm, the approach calculates the disjoint minimal cuts one by one using the basic procedure of the recursive decomposition method. At the same time, the process obtains the disjoint minimal paths of the system. In order to improve the computation efficiency, probabilistic inequality is used to calculate a solution that satisfies the prescribed error bound. A series of case studies show that MCRDA converges rapidly when the edges of the systems have low reliabilities. Therefore, the approach can be used to evaluate large-scale lifeline systems subjected to strong seismic wave excitation.     

2007年宁洱6.4级地震余震序列尾波QC值研究

基于Aki和Chouet的地方震尾波单次散射模型,利用思茅台记录到的2007年云南宁洱6.4地震余震的数字化波形观测资料,测量了震源区尾波Qc(f)值。当中心频率为1.5Hz时,宁洱地区的尾波Qc值在51～147之间,平均值为79,尾波的振幅衰减率βc(f)在0.014～0.039之间,平均值为0.028;测量得到该地区尾波Qc值与频率f的关系为Qc(f)=53f0.88;尾波波源因子与震级成正比关系,满足关系lgA0=1.51ML-0.94;测量结果显示宁洱地震余震序列的尾波值Qc较低,表明宁洱震源区属于构造运动较为活跃区。     

桂林市大气汞污染现状调查

对桂林市大气汞系统监测显示,桂林市大气汞含量变化范围在7.69～39.93 ng/m3(表1).总体上,不同功能区大气汞的含量平均值,由工业区→医院→商业区→休闲区→住宅区→文教区依次降低,由22.89～9.94 ng/m3,是全球大气背景含量的1.5 ng/m3的15～6倍.其高于西藏2～6 ng/m3的背景值,也高于贵阳居民区8.4 ng/m3的平均值,略高于北京6～18 ng/m3的一般值,但低于重庆市大气汞含量平均34.4 ng/m3.     

中蒙强、弱沙尘暴年春季平均环流及沙尘活动变化分析

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料,对比分析了中蒙东、中及西区强、弱沙尘暴年春季(3—5月)平均环流的特征和差异,讨论了过去50年3分区沙尘暴活动的变化。主要结论是:(1)根据诱发沙尘暴的诱生系统、沙尘源地、冷空气入侵路径及主要影响,中蒙沙尘暴活动区可以划分为中蒙东区、中区及西区3个区系,并分区整体讨论与预测中蒙3分区的沙尘活动。(2)中蒙东区沙尘暴强年春季盛行日本海或中国东北低压活动,常随偏东的北路及东北路冷空气入侵,带来蒙古国东部的沙尘,造成蒙古东部及中国华北的沙尘天气;而弱年春季日本海及东北低压活动则少。(3)中蒙中区沙尘暴强年春季盛行蒙古低压,多西北路及偏西的北路冷空气入侵,常造成中蒙南边界西段附近的沙尘暴天气;而沙尘暴弱年春季则相反。(4)中蒙西区沙尘暴强年春季盛行南疆热低压,多西路冷空气入侵,诱发沙尘暴,常影响南疆及柴达木盆地等;弱年春季则相反。(5)近50年中蒙地区的沙尘暴活动呈波动变化,荒漠化环境、特别是大气环流的变化是导致上述3个分区沙尘活动波动变化的主要原因。主要从大气环流角度考虑,在目前全球增暖持续的背景下,近1—2年应注意中、东区(特别是东区)沙尘活动加强的可能性。