环境风垂直切变与登陆台风强度变化关系的统计分析

为了了解环境风垂直切变在登陆台风强度突变下所起的作用,利用1990-2004年登陆中国的111个台风的强度、登陆位置以及NCEP/NCAR每日4次等压面风场等资料,分析了风速垂直切变对台风登陆过程中强度变化的影响.结果表明,与海盆中相比,环境风垂直切变与登陆台风强度的线性相关性减小,滞后的时间长度减短;环境风垂直切变与滞后6～18 h的台风强度有不可忽视的相关性,与滞后6 h的台风强度相关最佳,相关系数为0.215;对于显著增强的登陆台风,其所处的环境风垂直切变不太大,平均在9 m·s-1以下,反之当环境风垂直切变在9 m·s-1以上时,登陆台风的强度也有可能显著减弱;与在华南登陆的台风相比,在华东登陆的台风其减弱型样本相对更多,其强度受风速垂直切变影响衰减得更快.     

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF THE ASSESSMENT OF METHODS FOR DISASTER-INDUCING RISKS BY TCs USING SAMPLE EVENTS OF TCs THAT AFFECTED SHANGHAI

Hazard factors,hazard-bear1ing objects,disaster-developing environment,and disaster-preventing capability play key roles in the formation of Tropical Cyclone (TC) disasters.Of all of these,the most important is the intensity of hazard factors (risk sources).In this study,this intensity is uniformly defined by the probability of hazard factors;then a relationship is established between disaster risk intensity and hazard factors.The exceedance probability of various hazard factors,including frequency and timing,scope of wind and rain,and maximum wind and rain of impacting TC cases,are calculated using data from TCs that impacted Shanghai from 1959–2006.The relationship between disaster situation and risk probability of hazard factors is analyzed,and the indices and model of TC disaster assessment are established based on the results.The process maximum wind speed and maximum daily precipitation are very important in TC-related disaster formation in Shanghai.The results of disaster indices coordinate with the results of the assessment model,and both can show the extent of probability of a TC disaster.Tests using TC data in 2007 and 2008 show that disasters caused by TC Krosa (0716) would be more serious than those by TC Wipha (0713),and that TC Fung Wong (0808) would have a weak impact.Real-life situations validate these results.     

国外航空物探系统集成技术回顾(2015～2020)

梳理了 2015～2020年之间国外主要的航空物探系统集成技术的现状和进展情况.在这一时期,一些旧的系统进行了改进,也有一些不再适合市场需要而被淘汰.新的系统集成方法不断涌现:随着修正算法的改进,磁梯度吊舱开始被广泛应用;无人机系统的飞行控制能力和负载能力显著提升,已应用于磁、电、重、伽马能谱各领域;SQUID磁张量、...     

"8·22"非雷击事故的鉴定与思考

2006年8月22日下午,桐庐R公司职工厨房建造工地上钢筋工余某意外死亡。本文根据现场勘察、取证情况,结合雷电防护理论,对事故作了分析与鉴定,并提出相关问题的思考。     

人类影响气候的现况

引言人类活动有可能会影响气候变化,这是大家所关心的事。因此,应对人类在全球气候变迁中可能起的作用,作出判断。对于人类活动已经或将引起气候改变的问题,看法上并不一致,这是因为我们对于污染和全球气候之间的关系了解得太少。本文主要是讨论某些大气成份的最近变化情况。一、二氧化碳大多数气象学家认为,大气中二氧化碳和浑浊度的不断增加,最有可能是人类无意识地影响全球或局地气候变化的一种现象,所以应首先考虑二氧化碳。     

2019年长江中下游伏秋连旱的异常特征分析

利用NCEP/NCAR再分析资料及实况观测资料,分析了2019年中国长江中下游地区伏秋连续干旱期间的降水、温度及大气环流异常特征。结果表明：此次干旱具有持续时间长、降水偏少严重、气温较历史同期明显偏高、高温日数明显偏多等极端性特点。西太平洋副热带高压偏强,位置相对偏西、偏北,是形成长江中下游伏秋连旱的最主要原因;南亚高压东伸及负涡度向东输送,利于副热带高压西伸,长江中下游地区始终位于东亚副热带西风急流出口区右侧、对流层中高层负涡度的叠加作用区,使得垂直方向上的下沉辐散得到显著增强;自乌拉尔山至贝加尔湖高压脊形成的"高压坝",偏弱的极涡和东亚大槽等异常中高纬环流形势稳定维持,使得西风带中的气旋性扰动不易影响到副热带地区,利于西太平洋副热带高压的稳定及干旱的维持;频繁的热带系统活动,使得副热带高压在热带对流加热区以北的负涡度作用下得以进一步加强,并且导致对流层低层西南气流、越赤道气流和东南气流等三支气流在向北的输送路径上发生改变,并使长江中下游地区水汽辐合偏弱,使干旱得以维持。     

SATELLITE-BASED ANALYSIS ON THE CONCENTRIC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES OF SUPER TYPHOON MUIFA (1109)

Multisatellite data is used to analyze the characteristics of three eyewall replacement cycles (ERCs) during the lifetime of Typhoon Muifa (1109). Spiral rainbands evolutions, concentric eyewall (CE) structure modes, CE durations, and intensity changes are discussed in detail. In addition, an ERC evolution model of Typhoon Muifa is given. There are four main findings. (1) The outer spiral rainband joins end to end to form the outer eyewall after it disconnects from the original (inner) eyewall. The inner eyewall weakens as the outer eyewall becomes axisymmetric and is intensified. The contraction of the outer eyewall causes the inner eyewall to dissipate rapidly. Finally, the ERC ends with an annular eyewall or spiral rainbands. (2) Although the CE duration times of Typhoon Muifa’s three ERCs covered a large range, the CE structures were all maintained for approximately 5 h from the formation of the axisymmetric outer eyewall to the end of the cycle. (3) There is no obvious precipitation reflectivity in the eye or moat region for the subsidence flow. The convection within the two eyewalls is organized as a radially outward slope with increasing height. (4) Typhoon intensity estimation results based on ADT may not explain the intensity variations associated with ERC correctly, while the typhoon’s warm core data retrieved from AMSU-A works well.     

赣南鹅婆岩体地质特征及演化程序

在１∶５万黄石幅区调中,遵循单元—超单元的填图方法,对鹅婆岩体进行全面研究。在此基础上,阐述了鹅婆岩体的地质特征,并对其演化历程进行了初步探讨。