基于4D-VAR的动态非对称台风初值化方法试验研究

经典BDA台风初值化方案中台风模型为一个不能充分反映个别台风具体特征的轴对称海平面涡旋场,且在同化窗口内强迫发展着的台风向这个静止涡旋场适应。本文针对该特点,提出一种充分融合分析场信息和实况信息并考虑副高影响的非对称台风Bogus方法,利用PSU/NCAR的MM5模式及其伴随模式,通过四维变分同化(4D-VAR)技术,建立动态非对称BDA方案,对多个不同时次的Bogus资料进行同化。通过对夏季受副热带高压影响较大的6个台风的数值模拟试验对比发现,新方案的路径模拟普遍优于经典方案,且对于经典方案没能改善路径模拟的时段,新方法的模拟效果却能得以改进;新方法模拟的强度普遍弱于经典方案,但这种趋势使得新方法的中后期模拟强度较经典方案更接近于实况。另外,当实况中台风强度已大为减弱时,同化试验模拟的台风仍然保持很强的强度,造成气旋的过度发展,这种情况对BDA方案模拟效果的限制作用还需进一步研究。     

NUMERICAL EXPERIMENTS ON THE IMPACTS OF SEA SPRAY ON TROPICAL CYCLONES

The latest version of sea spray flux parameterization scheme developed by Andreas is coupled with the PSU/NCAR model MM5 in this paper. A western Pacific tropical cyclone named Nabi in 2005 is simulated using this coupled air-sea spray modeling system to study the impacts of sea spray evaporation on the evolution of tropical cyclones. The results demonstrate that sea spray can lead to a significant increase of heat fluxes in the air-sea interface, especially the latent heat flux, the maximum of which can increase by up to about 35% - 80% The latent heat flux seems to be more important than the sensible heat flux for the evolution of tropical cyclones. Regardless of whether sea spray fluxes have been considered, the model can always simulate the track of Nabi well, which seems to indicate that sea spray has little impact on the movement of tropical cyclones. However, with sea spray fluxes taken into account in the model, the intensity of a simulated tropical cyclone can have significant increase. Due to the enhancement of water vapor and heat from the sea surface to the air caused by sea spray, the warm core structure is better-defined, the minimum sea level pressure decreases and the vertical speed is stronger around the eye in the experiments, which is propitious to the development and evolution of tropical cyclones.     

西北太平洋环境风垂直切变和热带气旋移动对涡旋内对流非对称分布影响的特征分析

热带气旋（TC）预报特别是强度预报是当今大气科学研究和业务预报的重点、难点问题,TC环流内部的对流系统对气旋的结构和强度变化有着十分重要的影响。利用FY-2C/2E黑体亮温（TBB）资料和NCEP分析资料,研究了2005-2012年西北太平洋热带气旋外雨带区的对流非对称分布特征,及其与环境风垂直切变和TC移动的关系。分析发现,整层风垂直切变的方向与TBB一波非对称大值区关于方位角的分布有很好的对应关系。在弱整层风垂直切变条件下（<5 m/s）,TC移动引起的非对称摩擦效应会使对流易出现在移动方向的右前象限。在中强整层风垂直切变条件下（>5 m/s）,风切变成为影响对流非对称分布的主要因子,TC外螺旋雨带区的对流集中于顺风切方向及其左侧,对流偏离顺切变左侧的程度一方面受到TC内逆时针环流的影响,另一方面与风垂直切变的强度有关：对于发展阶段的TC,当风垂直切变增强时,一波非对称分布更加显著,切变越强,TC强度越大,外雨带区的对流越偏离顺风切左侧;对于消亡阶段的TC,风垂直切变的影响作用并不明显。     

一次弱弓形飑线后方入流特征的观测分析

后方入流是中尺度对流系统内中尺度环流的一部分,表现为一支从风暴后部穿过层状回波区进入风暴系统的相对气流,对增强中尺度下沉气流和地面冷池具有重要作用。利用多普勒雷达探测资料、地面加密自动站和NCEP再分析资料,结合雷达径向剖面内反演的系统相对水平速度,对2012年5月16日江苏省一次弱弓形飑线的后方入流演变特征进行了分析。结果表明,此次飑线是在东北冷涡影响下,受高、低空温度平流差动、低空急流和低层温度暖脊的共同作用生成。飑线发展阶段,后方入流最早出现在对流层中层的层状回波区中,并向前伸展到对流回波区后缘;成熟阶段,后方入流逐渐下沉并与对流区前低层辐散外流合并,形成一条从飑线后部中层延伸到对流区前缘的持续性后方入流通道;消散阶段,后方入流中心下沉到地面附近,与冷池外流共同增强,与其前侧西南入流的局地辐合,可能是触发对流单体后向新生并促使双带状回波出现的有利条件。后方入流把中层干冷空气持续输送到对流区中下方,通过加剧降水粒子的蒸发冷却作用,增强地面冷池及其出流,导致成熟阶段地面大风生成,这与以往的研究结论一致。受后方入流中心下沉到地面以及新生带状回波系统的影响,地面冷池持续增强,可能是消散阶段地面大风形成的原因。此外,后方入流与飑前地面中尺度辐合线具有很好的对应关系。      

基于集合Kalman滤波数据同化的热带气旋路径集合预报研究

构建了一个基于集合Kalman滤波数据同化的热带气旋集合预报系统，通过积云参数化方案和边界层参数化方案的9个不同组合，采用MM5模式进行了不同时间的短时预报。对预报结果使用“镜像法”得到18个初始成员，为同化提供初始背景集合。将人造台风作为观测场，同化后的结果作为集合预报的初值，通过不同参数组合的MM5模式进行集合预报。对2003～2004年16个台风个例的分析表明，初始成员产生方法能够对热带气旋的要素场、中心强度和位置进行合理扰动。同化结果使台风强度得到加强，结构更接近实际。基于同化的集合路径预报结果要优于未同化的集合预报。使用“镜像法”增加集合成员提高了预报准确度，路径预报误差在48小时和72小时分别低于200 km和250 km。     

位涡反演理论在台风领域中的应用研究进展

位涡作为一个综合反映流体动力学和热力学性质的物理量,受到气象学者的广泛关注,位涡反演理论逐渐成为台风研究的重要方法之一。在简要回顾近几十年来位涡反演理论研究进展的基础上,综述了位涡反演理论在台风领域中的应用进展情况,讨论了位涡反演理论应用时可能存在的问题,即位涡平均态求取、近地面摩擦作用以及位涡反演平衡条件等都可能影响反演效果,并对位涡反演理论的应用前景作了展望。     

Improvement to the Evaporation Duct Model by Introducing Nonlinear Similarity Functions in Stable Conditions

Modified refractivity (M) profile is an important parameter to describe the atmospheric refraction environment, as well as a key factor in uniquely evaluating electromagnetic propagation effects. In order to improve the model-derived M profile in stable (especially very stable) conditions, three nonlinear similarity functions, namely BH91, CB05, SHEBA07, are introduced in this paper to improve the original Babin_V25 model, and the performances of these modified models are verified based on the hydrometeorological observations from tower platforms, which are finally compared with the original Babin_V25 model and Local_HYQ92 model. Results show that introducing nonlinear similarity functions can significantly improve the model-derived M profile; especially, the newly developed SHEBA07 functions manage to reduce the predicted root mean square (rms) differences of M and M slope (for both 0–5 m and 5–40 m) by 64.5%, 16.6%, and 60.4%, respectively in stable conditions. Unfortunately, this improved method reacts little on the evaporation duct height; in contrast, Local_HYQ92 model is capable of reducing the predicted rms differences of M, M slope (for both 0–5 m and 5–40 m), and evaporation duct height by 76.7%, 40.2%, 83.7%, and 58.0% respectively. Finally, a new recommendation is made to apply Local_HYQ92 and Babin_SHEBA07 in very stable conditions considering that M slope is more important than evaporation duct height and absolute M value in uniquely determining electromagnetic propagation effects.     

卫星高度计融合产品的研发综述EI北大核心CSCD

卫星高度计融合产品广泛应用于海洋环境监测、海洋中尺度系统研究和海洋数值预报等业务领域,具有极高的科学和社会价值。当前同时在轨运行并发布沿轨数据的高度计卫星维持在5—6颗,为了立足现有数量的观测卫星,最大程度地提取有效观测信息,本文以改进融合产品的有效分辨率并提升高度计产品质量为主线,详细介绍了现有卫星高度计融合产品的研发现状。前人的研究结果表明:卫星高度计融合产品的质量主要3个方面的影响:(1)制作产品所选择的卫星种类:因不同种类卫星的轨道高度、周期差异,导致获取的海表高度时空精度也存在不同;(2)高度计标准的选择:资料处理中的仪器参数、地球物理参数、环境校正、平均海面的构造等;(3)融合处理资料的方法:不同融合方法在背景场的选择、背景误差相关系数尺度的差异以及观测误差的处理等。针对众多学者关注的热点和亟需解决的难点问题,本文系统地介绍了当前卫星高度计融合产品的种类,对比分析产品质量。同时针对卫星高度计的融合方法,着重介绍了卫星高度计融合产品质量的提升途径。文中进一步强调了融合方法与有效分辨率的关系,为提升卫星高度计融合产品质量,提高融合产品的有效分辨率,扩大卫星高度计融合产品的应用范围提供参考。     

梅雨期及其前后东亚地区的径向环流结构

本文分析了1983年江淮流域入梅前、梅雨期以及出梅后东亚地区各期平均的径向环流结构及其演变特征。在不同时期，印度热带季风环流和东亚热带及副热带季风环流具有显著差异。研究指出，江淮流域梅雨是亚洲夏季三个季风系统相互作用的结果，是东亚副热带季风系统中径向经向环流上升支中的产物，同时又与其它两个季风系统密切相关，梅雨结束则与印度热带季风环流减弱南撤、西太平洋高压加强西伸、东亚副热带季风环流北上有关。     

ON THE RELATIONSHIPS BETWEEN THE UNUSUAL TRACK OF TYPHOON MORAKOT (0908) AND THE UPPER WESTERLY TROUGH

In this paper,by carrying out sensitivity tests of initial conditions and diagnostic analysis of physical fields,the impact factors and the physical mechanism of the unusual track of Morakot in the Taiwan Strait are discussed and examined based on the potential vorticity(PV)inversion.The diagnostic results of NCEP data showed that Morakot’s track was mainly steered by the subtropical high.The breaking of a high-pressure zone was the main cause for the northward turn of Morakot.A sensitivity test of initial conditions showed that the existence of upper-level trough was the leading factor for the breaking of the high-pressure zone.When the intensity was strengthened of the upper-level trough at initial time,the high-pressure zone would break ahead of time,leading to the early northward turn of Morakot.Conversely,when the intensity was weakened,the breaking of the high-pressure zone would be delayed.Especially,when the intensity was weakened to a certain extent,the high-pressure zone would not break.The typhoon,steered by the easterly flow to the south of the high-pressure zone,would keep moving westward,with no turn in the test.The diagnostic analysis of the physical fields based on the sensitivity test revealed that positive vorticity advection and cold advection associated with the upper-level trough weakened the intensity of the high-pressure zone.The upper-level trough affected typhoon’s track indirectly by influencing the high-pressure zone.