青藏高原冻土退化的研究

青藏高原从70年代后期气温持续转暖,导致高原多年冻土呈区域性退化趋势。年平均地温升高0.1～0.5℃,在边缘地带垂向上形成不衔接冻土和融化夹层,多年冻土分布下界上升40～80 m,高原多年冻土总面积约减少10×10⁴km²。     

春晒期关键性降水过程预报专家系统简介

一、基本情况“春晒期关键性降水过程预报专家系统”(以下简称“系统”)。是辽宁省轻工业厅气象科研课题,由大连复州湾盐场承担。自1989年3月以来,在2年多的时间里,我们遵循边研究、边使用、边改进、边提高的原则,先后研制并写出“系统”的知识库的设计、个例库的研制等10篇技术总结报告。在业务试报的过程中,成功率较高,在生产服务上经济效益明显。     

陕、甘、川交界处摩天岭区碧口群层序及时代划分

长期以来,对碧口群的时代归属、碧口群的总体构造形态、碧口群的基底及上覆层等问题众说纷纭,争论不休。经笔者通过寻找碧口群基底、剥开碧口群的上覆层等项研究,把广义的碧口群解体为3部分:下伏基底晚太古代鱼洞子群、中元古代碧口群(狭义)和上覆上震旦统一下寒武统。并进一步将碧口群内部区分出具有不同特征的3个构造分区,分别论述各区总体构造特征、层序建立的依据及碧口群上、下亚群间不整合关系的特征和划分原则,着重论述了与此问题紧密相关的广泛分布于碧口群中的“片理化凝灰质砂砾岩”的产出特征、层序位置及其成因,指出该“片理化凝灰质砂砾岩”为海沟重力流相沉积,而非冰碛岩。最后论述了碧口群分布区新建立的晚太古代地层单位鱼洞子群。     

大菱鲆与牙鲆育苗异同的研究

本文结合多年生产实践,比较了大菱鲆与牙鲆人工育苗的异同,在人工繁殖、发育特征、苗种培育、营养与饲料、疾病预防等方面进行了研究,从而为大力发展大菱鲆与牙鲆的人工育苗、提高苗种数量和质量提供技术参考。     

ICP-OES测定地球化学样品中La,Y,Ba

水系沉积物、土壤等试样用HF-HC1-HN03-HC1O4混酸消解后,以8%(V/V)HN03溶解干渣,建立了测定地球化学样品中La,Y,Ba 3种微量元素的电感耦合等离子体发射光谱(ICP-OES)方法.方法测定限(μg/L,10SD)为:La 6.0,Y 1.0,Ba 1.0.精密度(RSD%,n=11)为:0.20～1.50,经国家一级地球化学标准物质的分析验证,结果与标准值吻合,该方法现已用于区域化探试样的分析.     

DYNAMICAL PREDICTION OF WEST CHINA AUTUMN RAINFALL BY THE NCEP CLIMATE FORECAST SYSTEM

This study investigates the variation and prediction of the west China autumn rainfall (WCAR) and their associated atmospheric circulation features, focusing on the transitional stages of onset and demise of the WCAR. Output from the 45-day hindcast by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Climate Forecast System version 2 (CFSv2) and several observational data sets are used. The onset of WCAR generally occurs at pentad 46 and decays at pentad 56, with heavy rainfall over the northwestern China and moderate rainfall over the south. Before that, southerly wind changes into southeasterly wind, accompanied by a westward expansion and intensification of the western Pacific subtropical high (WPSH), favoring rainfall over west China. On the other hand, during the decay of WCAR, a continental cold high develops and the WPSH weakens and shifts eastward, accompanied by a demise of southwest monsoon flow, leading to decay of rainfall over west China. The CFSv2 generally well captures the variation of WCAR owing to the high skill in capturing the associated atmospheric circulation, despite an overestimation of rainfall. This overestimation occurs at all time leads due to the overestimated low-level southerly wind. The CFSv2 can pinpoint the dates of onset and demise of WCAR at the leads up to 5 days and 40 days, respectively. The lower prediction skill for WCAR onset is due to the unrealistically predicted northerly wind anomaly over the lower branch of the Yangtze River and the underestimated movement of WPSH after lead time of 5 days.     

k-近邻法及铜川降雹预报试验

分析了传统概率统计方法在天气预报中的局限性,简要介绍了基于实例的学习方法中最典型的k近邻法的基本原理.根据冰雹产生的物理机制,选取当日08时的7个高空因子,以连续8年的248个完整的数据样本为基础,将k近邻法应用于陕西铜川5月份冰雹预报,得到了较好的准确率(TS评分最高达到了0.444).进而选取了2005年和2006年两年的数据,运用优选出的模型做了进一步预报检验,TS评分优于实际业务工作中预报人员用的传统方法,以及向量机(SVM)和人工神经网络(ANN).最后分析了实验结果,针对天气预报科学的特点,对k近邻法在其中的应用做了进一步展望.