一个新的季风指数及其年际变化和与雨量的关系

作者按曾庆存等所定义的标准化风场季节变率(和利用新的资料重新作了计算,为与国外传统的和至今大多数学者的定义一致,取δ*=δ-2＞0(即冬、夏风向差大于π/2)作为季风区,结果涵盖了迄今国内外所指出的全球所有季风区(但比曾庆存等算得的区域略为小些),尤其是热带季风区正处于冬季和夏季赤道幅合带(ITCZ)位置所夹的范围内.其后,用李建平和曾庆存建议的动态风场标准化季节变率δ*m=δm-2(δm形式上与δ相似,但依赖于年份m)作为各年季风指数,计算了各主要季风区区域平均的δ*m的年际变化,得到南亚夏季风和东亚夏季风自20世纪70年代中期起、南海夏季风自20世纪80年代起和西非夏季风自1967年起都有不同程度的长期减弱趋势,尤其以西非夏季风减弱最明显.西非夏季风指数和南亚夏季风指数与当地夏季雨量呈显著正相关,东亚夏季风指数与中国和东亚夏季雨量的空间分布有一定的统计相关结构,而南海夏季风指数则与全球各海区夏季降水和海平面气压异常有较好的大范围统计相关.     

The Propagation of Inertia-Gravity Waves and Their Influence on Zonal Mean Flow Part Two:Wave Breaking and Critical Levels

The gravity wave breaking is crucial to the large-scale circulation of middle atmosphere. In this paper, we follow Lindzen (1981) to draw out the parameterization of two-dimensional gravity wave breaking including inertial effect. Also we present some properties of critical levels and inertial critical levels.     

非饱和流问题的数值模拟研究

利用有限元方法 ,建立了非饱和土壤水流动的数值计算模型 ,用以模拟均质土壤 ,地下水埋藏很深且在不同的初始和边界条件下的水分运动 .对于入渗或蒸发问题 ,用通常的离散方法容易产生振荡非物理解 .我们采用有限元集中质量法 ,将质量矩阵的非对角元集中到主对角元 ,避免了这种非物理解的产生 ,并且较好地处理了这类边界条件 .     

大气环流的季节变化和季风

利用多年平均气候资料计算了全球各地和各等压面上的大气环流季节变率（即冬季和夏季环流之差或者1月和7月环流之差再除以年平均）,发现在对流层低层环流有5个很突出的季节变率极大值的区域,分别位于热带和南北两半球的副热带和中-高纬度带（温-寒带）,它们分别对应于经典所谓的热带季风区,太平洋、印度洋和大西洋的副热带高 压季节性移动区域,以及温-寒带气旋的风暴轴线区域。这5个区域也可分别称为热带季风区、副热带季风区和温-寒带季风区。季节变率带有鲜明的斜压性:在对流层低层热带季风和副热带季风虽相互连接然而仍然明显可分,但越往上,副热带季风一支就越往低纬移动,结果在200 hPa处与热带季风混合为一,形成为斜交赤道的带,和所谓的行星季风区相对应;再往上,在平流层上层,则南北两半球各在中纬度带有一完好的非常鲜明的季节变率极大值带,它们与黑夜急流的维持和崩溃有关。此外,文中还探索了各季节来临的时空分布以及年际变化等问题。     

大气污染的最优调控与污染源反演问题Ⅲ:双重订正迭代反演求排放源法

文Ⅰ提出用非完整伴随算子的方法,可由大气污染监测网得到的污染物浓度ρob,求得总排放源S,文章研究由这样求得的S反演人为排放源Sa的问题.假定自然源Sn已知,注意到化学反应生成源Sc是污染物浓度的函数,故如化学反应方程是完整的,且Sc的公式较准确,则Sc可直接由ρob求出,从而由S就可反演得Sa.但如Sc公式中的化学反...     

Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation (CAR) ensemble modeling system: Overall accuracy and efficiency

The Cloud-Aerosol-Radiation (CAR) ensemble modeling system has recently been built to better understand cloud/aerosol/radiation processes and determine the uncertainties caused by different treatments of cloud/aerosol/radiation in climate models. The CAR system comprises a large scheme collection of cloud, aerosol, and radiation processes available in the literature, including those commonly used by the world's leading GCMs. In this study, detailed analyses of the overall accuracy and efficiency of the CAR system were performed. Despite the different observations used, the overall accuracies of the CAR ensemble means were found to be very good for both shortwave (SW) and longwave (LW) radiation calculations. Taking the percentage errors for July 2004 compared to ISCCP (International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project) data over (60°N, 60°S) as an example, even among the 448 CAR members selected here, those errors of the CAR ensemble means were only about-0.67% (-0.6 W m-2 ) and-0.82% (-2.0 W m-2 ) for SW and LW upward fluxes at the top of atmosphere, and 0.06% (0.1 W m-2 ) and -2.12% (-7.8 W m-2 ) for SW and LW downward fluxes at the surface, respectively. Furthermore, model SW frequency distributions in July 2004 covered the observational ranges entirely, with ensemble means located in the middle of the ranges. Moreover, it was found that the accuracy of radiative transfer calculations can be significantly enhanced by using certain combinations of cloud schemes for the cloud cover fraction, particle effective size, water path, and optical properties, along with better explicit treatments for unresolved cloud structures.     

海南气象助力"21世纪海上丝绸之路"建设

正2013年10月,习近平总书记访问东盟时提出了建设"21世纪海上丝绸之路"的宏伟构想,南海正是"21世纪海上丝绸之路"最重要的一段,海南省处于其要冲位置,具有极其重要的经济和军事地位。且单就气象学本身,南海也是东亚夏季风最早爆发的海域和我国天气系统主要的水汽输送带,那里的大气和海洋耦合系统的演变过程有独特机理,对东亚地区的天气气候具有重要的影响。从习总书记提出这宏伟构想以来,海南省气象局广大气象人员就积极将业务和科研落实到为"海上丝绸之路"服务上来。     

ON THE MAINTENANCE OF BLOCKING ANTICYCLONES OF NORTHERN HEMISPHERE—PART I:QUASI-GEOSTROPHIC POTENTIAL VORTICITY ANALYSIS

Four observed blocking anticyclones in different regions of the Northern Hemisphere are in-vestigated.Analyses show that there exist distinct differences in the maintenance of the time-meanquasi-geostrophic potential vorticity(PV)low in 300 hPa within blocking areas.In two Pacificblocking cases,the PV advection by time-mean flow tends to flow the PV low to northwestern partof the blocking highs,and thus is beneficial to the maintenance of the blockings'strength.Thetransfer by transient eddies acts to balance the effect of the time-mean flow.In the Atlantic andAlaska blocking cases,however,the advection of mean flow tends to flow the PV low eastward.The PV transfer by transient eddies acts to flow potential vorticity low to the western part of theblocking ridges and also to balance the time-mean flow's effect.Thus,in the latter two cases,it isthe transfer by the transient eddies that acts to maintain the blockings.     

北京325 m气象塔塔体对测风影响的数值模拟

安装在气象观测塔上的仪器进行风速测量时,气象塔塔体本身会对流场有一定的影响,使其附近局部流场发生变化,产生绕流和尾流,导致所测风场数据相对于真实风场值失真,利用计算流体力学软件Fluent对北京325m框架式气象塔周围的风场进行了模拟,给出流向风速在该塔伸臂上测风位置的失真情况,及风速失真大小随风向风速的变化规律,计算表明若伸臂处于迎风面,在测风点上的风速误差均小于5%,与实际观测一致,验证了北京325m气象塔风速伸臂设计的合理性。     

21层大气环流模式IAP AGCM-Ⅲ的设计及气候数值模拟Ⅰ.动力框架

设计了IAP(Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences) AGCM-III,对其动力框架作说明和检验,时间积分采用改进的非线性迭代法.用Rossby-Haurwitz 波对框架进行了波型检验、能量检验和波速检验.结果表明,非线性迭代3次的时间积分方案具有较好的稳定性,能够有效地抑制短波,同时对长波的歪曲较小,且时间积分步长可放得较大;该框架能够较长时间地保持Rossby-Haurwitz 4波波型,在积分过程中能够较高精度地保持总有效能量守恒;模式计算的Rossby-Haurwitz波速为每天西传15个经度,这与理伦值很接近.