河南省汛期强降水中期预报业务系统

利用欧洲中期数值预报产品格点资料，研制建立了河南省汛期强降水中期预报业务系统，指导产品上网运行，供市地台调用。     

用有限单元法反求水文地质参数的初探

一,计算区概况计算区位于鲁北德州地区陵县抬头寺乡,属黄河下游冲积平原,面积为9.625km~2。本区属华北平原半湿润大陆性气候,多年平均降雨量为603mm,多年平均蒸发量为1350mm,区内现有机井136眼,至1983年底为纯井灌区。区内40m 深度内的岩性多为粘土、亚粘     

Linkage of liquid conductivity of glacier ice with its alkalinity over the north Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau--Implication to the past dust recovery

Liquid conductivity (EC) measurement was conducted for the samples collected from several snow pits and ice cores over the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Plateau, with their time range covering seasonal, decadal and centennial scales. Unlike the previous attention mostly focused on the acidity (H+) responding to the solid conductance (ECM) of glacial ice, we introduce the alkalinity (OH?) of snow and ice to show how it responds to EC. Strong linear relationship was established between EC and OH? for these snow pits and ice cores. Positive correlation is also established between EC and major cations (Ca2+, Mg2+, Na+ and K+). Since the cations are known as the proxies for the intensity of mineral dust influx onto glaciers of the northern Qinghai-Xizang Plateau, we believe that EC could be used as an indicator for the history of dust input in deep ice core study. In fact, records in Guliya ice core since the Little Ice Age (LIA) indicate that dust load in glacier may depend on the combination of temperature and humidity. "Cold-dry" combination favors the dust arising, and results in higher EC and OH- values, while "warm-wet" combination prevents dust form and EC and OH- values are lower. In the past century, with the atmospheric warming and precipitation increasing over the northern plateau, which means an atmospheric condition of dust decreasing, both EC and OH- displayed rapid decline.     

南极地区数百年来气候变化的冰芯记录对比研究

随着国际横穿南极科学考察计划的实施, 近年来开展了沿中山站-Dome A考察路线的冰芯研究, 获得了伊丽莎白公主地250 a来气候环境变化的高分辨率记录. 通过与Lambert冰川流域西侧有关研究结果的对比, 揭示了该冰川谷地为东南极洲重要气候分界线的特征. 综合南极地区其它地点冰芯记录和冰盖变化研究结果, 发现以小冰期为代表的寒冷期在东南极洲较为明显, 在西南极洲则不明显, 甚或恰好相反, 表现为温暖阶段. 就东南极洲来说, 也存在明显的区域差异: 以Lambert冰川谷地为界, 东部地区, 如Wilkes Land (Law Dome), Victoria Land北部(Hercules Neve)等地, 小冰期冷期比较突出;西部地区, 如Dronning Maud Land和Mizuho高原, 情况不是很明确. Lambert冰川流域是非常特殊的地方, 虽然小冰期冷期也存在, 但1850年前后的显著高温和近100多年来的降温与南极洲其它地方都不一样, 而与南极半岛北侧一冰芯所给出的400 a温度变化记录极为相似, 我们尚不能解释为何如此遥远的两个地点具有很好的一致性而与其它地方则不一致.     

冰冻圈关键地区雪冰化学的时空分布及环境指示意义

采用雪冰常量化学元素示踪体系, 系统分析了冰冻圈关键地区的南极冰盖、北极格陵兰和北极中心地带、以及以青藏高原为中心的高亚洲地区现代降水(表层雪冰)化学的空间分布、季节变化特点. 研究表明, 两极和高亚洲地区雪冰化学反映了全球或局地大气环境本底:南极现代雪冰化学代表了南半球或全球本底, 北极格陵兰地区代表了北半球对流层中部本底, 青藏高原海拔5 000 m以上的高海拔地区雪冰化学则代表中纬度地区对流层中上部本底. 其中, 离子浓度在两极冰盖和喜马拉雅山高海拔地区接近, 而在青藏高原北部高海拔地区则高得多. 三个地区雪冰化学的季节分布特点是: 在南极冰盖, 海盐气溶胶的"丰"季形成雪层化学峰值, 在北极, 冬春季污染物(所谓"北极霾")和漂尘形成季节峰值, 在高亚洲, 主要是春季降尘形成明显污化层. 青藏高原上大风季节与干季重叠, 静风季节与湿季重叠, 决定了干湿沉积过程具有明显季节转换. 总之, 主要阴、阳离子在南、北极和高亚洲雪层中的时空分布揭示了大气气溶胶的源区和传输, 其形成过程与大尺度大气环流、季风和局地尘暴等事件密切相关.     

东南极冰盖Lambert冰川流域的物质平衡研究

Lambert冰川流域是南极冰盖最大的冰流系统, 因而在整个南极冰盖的物质平衡中占有非常重要的地位. 近年来穿越该冰川流域的路线考察所获得的现场观测资料和浅冰芯研究结果显示, 该冰川东、西两侧的积累速率分布和近期变化有明显差异: 东侧积累速率较高且近几十年来呈增加趋势, 西侧积累速率较低且过去几十年为明显减小. 冰体运动速度测量和冰流通量计算表明, 该冰川东侧运动速度较快, 冰流量也较大, 说明该冰川冰量补给主要来源于东侧区域. 计算出的考察断面上游物质积累总量大于流出的冰通量约13%, 意味着该流域目前处于物质正平衡状态, 如果保持目前气候状态, 冰盖将会增厚.     

Interdecadal oscillations of temperatures in 1903 - 2002 over the Antarctic Peninula

In the paper, by use of the monthly mean temperature data of 12 stations in the vicinity of Antarctic Peninsula, the temperature series during 1903 - 2000 is founded and the interdecadal oscillation of the temperature are discussed. The results indicate that 1） There are three jumps during 1919 - 1923, 1947 - 1953 and 1976 - 1982 in recent hundred years and the stable climate step between two jump points lasted about 30 years. 2） Annual mean temperature is increased by 0. 730℃ in an echelon during 1903 -2000, the warming extent is dissimilarity in each season, the maximum of warming is in the winter and the minimum of warming is in summer. 3） The ice decline trend is presented in the index of Ice concentration in the vicinity sea of Antarctic Peninsula, which shows a -0. 2053/10a drop, and the decrease trend of the ice concentration index in summer half year （Dee-May） is found much more obviously than that in winter half year （Jun-Nov）. 4） There is better negative relationship between the temperature and the Ice concentration index in Antarctic Peninsula and its vicinity sea, which correlation coefficient of is exceed the significance level of 5% in summer, autumn and annual.     

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