Modeling unusual eruptive behavior of Mt. Etna,Italy, by means of event bush

One of the best-studied volcanoes of the world, Mt. Etna in Sicily, repeatedly exhibits eruptive scenarios that depart from the behavior commonly considered typical for this volcano. Episodes of intense explosive activity, pyroclastic flows, dome growth and cone collapse pose a variety of previously underestimated threats to human lives in the summit area of the volcano. However, retrospective analysis of these events shows that they were likely caused by the same very sets of premises and starting conditions as “normal” eruptions, yet combined in an unexpected, probably unique, way. To cope with such unexpected consequences, we involve an approach of artificial intelligence developed specially for needs of the geosciences, the event bush. Scenarios inferred from the event bush fit the observed ones and allow to foresee other low-probability events that may occur at the volcano. Application of the event bush provides a more impartial vision of volcanic phenomena and may serve as an intermediary between expert knowledge and numerical assessment, e.g., by means of Bayesian Belief Networks.     

On the origin of the prolate solar chromosphere

A simple geometric model is proposed to explain the recently reported effect of the prolateness of the solar chromosphere. We assume that a specific dynamical part of the solar atmosphere above the 2 Mm level, being a mixture of moving up and down jets of chromospheric matter with the coronal plasma between them, is responsible for the solar prolateness. Due to the dynamic nature of this layer, the magnetic field is considered to play a very important role in the density distribution with the height, guiding the mass flows along the field lines. The difference of the magnetic field topology in the polar and the equatorial regions leads to different heights of the chromospheric limb. Calculations show a satisfactory coincidence with observations when the mean separation between opposite polarity concentrations is about 9 Mm. The possible observational signature of this network in low photospheric and chromospheric layers is discussed.     

Complex scientific and technical trends of Russian Federation Arctic offshore hydrocarbon resource development

Based on the analysis of geological, technical and hydrometeorological conditions of the coastal part of the Arctic offshore, a concept of its hydrocarbon resource development is submitted.     

Effects of fracture intersections on seismic dispersion: theoretical predictions versus numerical simulations

The detection and characterisation of domains of intersecting fractures are important goals in several disciplines of current interest, including exploration and production of unconventional reservoirs, nuclear waste storage, CO₂ sequestration, and groundwater hydrology, among others. The objective of this study is to propose a theoretical framework for quantifying the effects of fracture intersections on the frequency‐dependent elastic properties of fluid‐saturated porous and fractured rocks. Three characteristic frequency regimes for fluid pressure communication are identified. In the low‐frequency limit, fractures are in full pressure communication with the embedding porous matrix and with other fractures. Conversely, in the high‐frequency limit, fractures are hydraulically isolated from the matrix and from other fractures. At intermediate frequencies, fractures are hydraulically isolated from the matrix porosity but can be in hydraulic communication with each other, depending on whether fracture sets are intersecting. For each frequency regime, the effective stiffness coefficients are derived using the linear‐slip theory and anisotropic Gassmann equations. Explicit mathematical expressions for the two characteristic frequencies that separate the three frequency regimes are also determined. Theoretical predictions are then applied to two synthetic 2D samples, each containing two orthogonal fracture sets: one with and another without intersections. The resulting stiffness coefficients, Thomsen‐style anisotropy parameters, and the transition frequencies show good agreement with corresponding numerical simulations. The theoretical results are applicable not only to 2D but also to 3D fracture systems and are amenable to being employed in inversion schemes designed to characterise fracture systems.     

A triple porosity scheme for fluid/solid substitution: theory and experiment

Quantifying the effects of pore-filling materials on elastic properties of porous rocks is of considerable interest in geophysical practice. For rocks saturated with fluids, the Gassmann equation is proved effective in estimating the exact change in seismic velocity or rock moduli upon the changes in properties of pore infill. For solid substance or viscoelastic materials, however, the Gassmann theory is not applicable as the rigidity of the pore fill (either elastic or viscoelastic) prevents pressure communication in the pore space, which is a key assumption of the Gassmann equation. In this paper, we explored the elastic properties of a sandstone sample saturated with fluid and solid substance under different confining pressures. This sandstone sample is saturated with octadecane, which is a hydrocarbon with a melting point of 28°C, making it convenient to use in the lab in both solid and fluid forms. Ultrasonically measured velocities of the dry rock exhibit strong pressure dependency, which is largely reduced for the filling of solid octadecane. Predictions by the Gassmann theory for the elastic moduli of the sandstone saturated with liquid octadecane are consistent with ultrasonic measurements, but underestimate the elastic moduli of the sandstone saturated with solid octadecane. Our analysis shows that the difference between the elastic moduli of the dry and solid-octadecane-saturated sandstone is controlled by the squirt flow between stiff, compliant, and the so-called intermediate pores (with an aspect ratio larger than that of compliant pore but much less than that of stiff pores). Therefore, we developed a triple porosity model to quantify the combined squirt flow effects of compliant and intermediate pores saturated with solid or viscoelastic infill. Full saturation of remaining stiff pores with solid or viscoelastic materials is then considered by the lower embedded bound theory. The proposed model gave a reasonable fit to the ultrasonic measurements of the elastic moduli of the sandstone saturated with liquid or solid octadecane. Comparison of the predictions by the new model to other solid substitution schemes implied that accounting for the combined effects of compliant and intermediate pores is necessary to explain the solid squirt effects.     

Simulations of magnetic-flux transport in solar active regions

We simulate the evolution of several observed solar active regions by solving a transport equation for magnetic flux at the photosphere. The rates of rotation, meridional flow, and diffusion of the flux are determined self-consistently in the calculations. Our findings are in good quantitative agreement with previous measures of the rotation rate and diffusion constant associated with photospheric magnetic fields. Although our meridional velocities are consistent in direction and magnitude with recently reported poleward flows, relatively large uncertainties in our velocity determinations make this result inconclusive.Laboratory for Computational Physics.E. O. Hulburt Center for Space Research.     

The theory of the Trojan asteroids,part V

E.W. Brown conjectured (1911) that the family of the long-periodic orbits in the Troian case of the restricted problem of three bodies terminates in an asymptotic orbit passing through the Lagrangian point L₃ at t=±∞. In 1977 the author showed that such an orbit deviates from L₃ by the epicyclic term mg (±∞). It is shown here that $$g\left( { \pm \infty } \right) = 0,$$ so that the Brown conjecture regarding L₃ is false. Contrary to what Brown believed, there is an entire family ofhomoclinic orbits, doubly asymptotic to short-periodic orbits around L₃. In the complex z-plane of the Poincaré eccentric variables, the latter orbits are circles of radius mR, with R bounded away from zero. The kinematics of the homoclinic family is investigated here in some detail.     

Vibrational states of H<Subscript>2</Subscript>O in beryl: physical aspects

Single-crystal polarized Raman spectra (3,000–4,000 cm⁻¹ at 3 ≤ T ≤ 300 K) were measured for synthetic alkali-free and natural beryl, Be₂Al₃Si₆O₁₈·xH₂O, to determine the behavior of H₂O molecules of both Type I and Type II in the cavities. At low temperature, the H₂O molecules of Type I displace from the center of cavity and give rise to very weak hydrogen bonding with the host lattice. The H₂O Type I translational motion is characterized by substantial anharmonicity and looks like a motion of “a particle in the box” with a frequency of 6.3 cm⁻¹. Water Type II is characterized by a free rotation with respect to the C ₂ molecule axis, and it makes possible the water nuclear isomers (i.e. ortho- and para-) to be observed at low temperature.

Interactive Knowledge Generation in Urban Green Building Transitions

Knowledge coproduction between practitioners and scientists offers promising opportunities for the emerging research field of the geography of sustainability transitions. Drawing on experiences from an international research project on urban green building transitions, this article explores the potentials and challenges of interactive and collaborative knowledge generation methods in understanding sustainability transitions. Our results show that ongoing engagement with local experts and practitioners through interactive World Café workshops and follow-up exchanges allows for a better understanding of the research context and knowledge exchange to all participants involved in the research process.