长江三角洲近46 a气温和降水的变化趋势

利用长江三角洲地区84个气象站观测数据,分析了长江三角洲1961—2006年气温和降水的时空变化趋势。结果表明,46 a间长江三角洲地区年平均气温上升趋势显著,冬季平均气温的增温幅度最大,春、秋次之。增温显著区域与城市带分布区域吻合。极端最低气温有明显上升,而年极端低温事件日数的下降趋势显著。部分地区的极端最高气温呈上升趋势,在城市密集带尤为突出。年降水量没有明显的变化趋势,但降水的季节分配有所变化,冬、夏季降水量呈现显著上升趋势,秋季降水量明显下降,春季没有明显变化。     

海河流域太阳辐射变化及其原因分析

太阳辐射是控制气候形成的基本能量,分析太阳辐射的变化有助于深入理解气候变化的原因.本文利用海河流域及其周边46个气象站气象资料以及TOMS(the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer)卫星反演逐日气溶胶指数资料,分析了海河流域太阳辐射的时空变化规律,并对太阳辐射变化的原因进行了初步分析.研究结果表明,1957-2008年海河流域太阳总辐射呈明显下降趋势,其中太阳直接辐射下降趋势明显,散射辐射呈增加趋势;从空间分布上看,流域南部和冀东沿海的人口高密度区相比流域北部的燕山和太行山人口低密度区太阳总辐射减小趋势更为明显.对太阳辐射下降原因的研究表明,人类活动造成气溶胶的显著增加可能是引起太阳辐射下降的重要原因.     

基于DEM的黄河流域天文辐射空间分布

Based on the developed distributed model for calculating astronomical solar radiation (ASR), monthly ASR with a resolution of 1 km× 1 km for the rugged terrains of Yellow River Basin was calculated, with DEM data as the general characterization of terrain. This model gives an all-sided consideration on factors that influence the ASR. Results suggest that (1) Annual ASR has a progressive decrease trend from south to north; (2) the magnitude order of seasonal ASR is: summer＞spring＞autumn＞winter; (3) topographical factors have robust effect on the spatial distribution of ASR, particularly in winter when a lower sun elevation angle exists; (4) the ASR of slopes with a sunny exposure is generally 2 or 3 times that of slopes with a shading exposure and the extreme difference of ASR for different terrains is over 10 times in January; (5) the spatial differences of ASR are relatively small in summer when a higher sun elevation angle exists and the extremedifference of ASR for different terrains is only 16% in July; and (6) the sequence of topographical influence strength is: winter＞autumn＞spring＞summer.     

降水时空变化对中国南方强酸雨分布的影响

利用SCIAMACHY、GOME 卫星资料反演的SO₂、NO₂ 柱浓度和中国重点城市SO₂ 排 放量数据分析了中国酸雨前体物时空分布特征, 并结合气象观测资料探讨了在降水分布出现 气候学时空尺度调整的背景下, 降水长期变化对强酸雨分布的影响。结果表明: (1) 中国南方 地区NO₂、SO₂ 排放量相对于降水的冲刷能力而言仍然处于较高的水平, 为强酸雨的形成提 供了充足的污染物条件。(2) 1993-2004 年间, 以1999 年为转折期, 中国南方强酸雨分布形势 经历了一个由强到弱到再次增强的过程。1999 年后, 西南强酸雨区强酸雨城市比例持续下 降, 江南强酸雨区强酸雨城市比例迅速增加, 强酸雨东移扩大趋势明显。(3) 中国南方强酸雨 区的空间分布与1961-2006 年冬夏季降水量线性增减速率超过10 mm/10a 的地区一致。以季 节降水量线性增减速率超过10 mm/10a 为界, 将江南及西南强酸雨区各季节降水量做线性趋 势和突变分析, 发现江南地区冬夏季降水量在1999 年出现增减趋势转换, 与强酸雨城市比例 转折的时间一致。其中, 1991-1999 年江南强酸雨区冬季降水减少, 夏季暴雨显著增加, 有利 于酸雨缓解, 强酸雨范围缩小; 而2000-2006 年, 冬季降水处于偏多时期, 夏季降水却相对 偏少, 强酸雨覆盖范围扩大。西南强酸雨区春秋季降水量在1990 年后持续减少, 导致春秋季 降水占年降水量比例下降, 使得年降水pH 值升高, 强酸雨形势得到缓解。     

水稻总叶龄模拟研究

以水稻的生物学特性为依据,利用田间试验实测资料,经过统计分析,确立了水稻总叶龄与环境变量之间的相关关系,建立了不同品种种水稻的总叶龄模拟模式,发现日长是影响水稻总叶龄的主要因素,其次是温度。     

基于遥感数据的江苏省水稻收获期时空分析研究

本研究基于2001—2020年中分辨率成像光谱仪遥感产品,使用谐波分析重建完整作物生长过程植被指数变化曲线,对江苏省范围内水稻种植区域的收获期进行提取。同时利用Sen趋势分析与相关分析方法,研究水稻收获期时空动态变化趋势与影响因子。结果表明:利用谐波分析方法能够较好地重建作物生长期生理参数变化曲线,滤波值与原始值线性相关系数达到0.8;水稻收获期分布在9月中旬到12月上旬之间,2010年之后,10月中下旬之后占比增加,达到50%以上;部分地区水稻收获期呈现延迟趋势,南京北部、扬州、盐城北部地区为3 d·a^-1及以上,泰州、南通等地区保持稳定,趋势绝对值低于1 d·a^-1;9—11月降水日数与降水量均对水稻收获期有影响,10月降水量与收获期存在负相关,10、11月降水日数与收获期存在正相关。本研究的基于遥感的水稻收获期提取方法为大范围的水稻农业物候信息提取提供参考。     

近50年中国蒸发皿蒸发量变化

Trends in pan evaporation are widely relevant to the hydrological community as indicators of hydrological and climate change. Pan evaporation has been decreasing in the past few decades over many large areas with differing climates globally. This study analyzes pan evaporation data from 671 stations in China over the past 50 years in order to reveal the trends of it and the corresponding trend attribution. Mann-Kendall test shows a significant declining trend in pan evaporation for most stations, with an average decrease of 17.2 mm/10a in China as a whole, the rate of decline was the steepest in the humid region (29.7 mm/10a), and was 17.6 mm/10a and 5.5 mm/10a in the semi-humid/semi-arid region and arid region, respectively. Complete correlation coefficients of pan evaporation with 7 climate factors were computed, and decreases in diurnal temperature range (DTR), SD (sunshine duration) and wind speed were found to be the main attributing factors in the pan evaporation declines. Decrease in DTR and SD may relate to the increase of clouds and aerosol as well as the other pollutants, and decrease in wind speed to weakening of the Asian winter and summer monsoons under global climate warming.     

城市建筑迎风面积密度矢量/栅格计算模型对比研究

城市建筑迎风面积密度（Frontal Area Density,FAD）作为重要的城市形态学参数之一,对其定量分析与制图,对城市微气候研究有着重要意义。为了找出高效可靠的方法分析城市建筑FAD的分布情况,本文以福建省晋江市为例,选取了矢量计算模型和栅格计算模型对FAD进行模拟,从计算效率、不同尺度和不同土地利用类型上,对结果进行对比分析。研究表明:计算效率上,矢量模型比栅格模型高。在城市尺度上,栅格模型与矢量模型模拟结果与宏观建筑分布特征一致,二者皆适用;在街区尺度上,栅格模型模拟结果比矢量模型更符合建筑分布规律。栅格模型的计算结果较矢量模型稳定,受分辨率影响小。在不同土地利用类型上,对于建筑分布稀疏区域2种模型皆适用;而对于建筑密集区,如商业区、城市住宅区等,栅格模型计算结果更优。     

降水变化对中国南方强酸雨分布的影响

Acid rain has been recognized as a serious environmental problem in China since the 1980s, but little is known about the effects of the climatic change in regional precipitation on the temporal and spatial variability of severe acid rain. We present the effects of the re-gional precipitation trend change on the area and intensity of severe acid rain in southern China, and the spatio-temporal distribution characteristics of SO2 and NO2 concentrations are analyzed on the basis of SO2 and NO2 column concentration data. The results are as follows. (1) The emission levels of SO2 and NO2 have reached or passed the precipitation scavenging capacity in parts of southern China owing to the emission totals of SO2 and NO2 increasing from 1993 to 2004. (2) Notable changes in the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain occurred mainly in the south of the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River during 1993-2004. With an abrupt change in 1999, the severe acid rain regions were mainly located in central and western China during 1993-1999 and moved obviously eastward to the south of the lower-middle reaches of the Yangtze River with the proportion of cities subject to se-vere acid rain increasing significantly from 2000 to 2004. (3) The spatial distribution and variation in the seasonal precipitation change rate of more than 10 mm/10a are similar to those of severe acid rain in southern China. An abrupt change in 1999 is seen for winter and summer precipitation, the same as for the proportion of cities subject to severe acid rain in southern China. The significant increase in summer storm precipitation from 1991 to 1999 mitigated the annual precipitation acidity in the south of the Yangtze River and reduced the area of severe acid rainfall. On the other hand, the decrease in storm rainfall in summer ex-panded the area of severe acid rainfall in the south of the Yangtze River in 2000-2006. Therefore, the change in seasonal precipitation is an important factor in the severe acid rain regions moving eastward and expanding in southern China.     

近50年中国蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势及原因

采用Mann-Kendall趋势检验方法、完全相关系数法及多元线性回归模型分析了中国全域及其各气候区近50年的蒸发皿蒸发量变化趋势及原因.结果表明,中国蒸发皿蒸发量存在减少趋势,区域平均减少速率为17.2mm/10a;其中湿润区减少速率最大,为29.7 mm/10a;半干旱半湿润区次之.为17.6 mm/10a:干旱区最小,为5.5 mm/10a.四季中,夏季减少速率最大,全国平均减少速率为16.2 mm/10a,其次为春季,为9.7 mm/10a,秋冬两季减少速率较小.中国蒸发皿蒸发量存在显著减少趋势的地区主要分布在湿润区的长江中下游地区、华南地区和云贵两省,半干旱半湿润区的黄淮海地区、山东半岛和藏东地区,以及干旱区的新疆、甘肃中部和青海省等.完全相关系数法分析表明,气温日较差和平均风速的减小与蒸发皿蒸发量的减少具有最显著的相关性,是蒸发皿蒸发量减少的影响因子.气温日较差的减小主要由云量和人类活动所引起的气溶胶及其他污染物的增加引起,这导致到达地面的太阳辐射强度减弱;而平均风速的减小则主要与全球变暖背景下亚洲冬季风和夏季风减弱导致我国平均风速的减小有关.