我国西部地区冬季雪盖遥感和变化分析

用改进的甚高分辩率扫描辐射仪(AVHRR)资料,在多光谱判识的基础上提取积雪信息的计算方法,并由此得到积雪遥感动态监测结果;同时,利用我国短时间序列的积雪资料,统计计算了新疆、内蒙古、青海、西藏和东北地区冬季积雪覆盖率,分析了我国西部地区积雪覆盖特征和变化规律;补充了常规气象台站对我国西部地区积雪监测和分析的不足.     

气候变化背景下1981～2010中国小麦物候变化时空分异

物候是气候变化可靠有力的指示物之一,作物物候变化及其影响机制研究对于应对气候变化和指导地区农业生产有重要意义.由于缺乏长时段连续观测数据,全国尺度的作物生长季内连续多个物候期的变化,尤其是物候期变化趋势的时空分异特征研究报道较少.本文基于全国4个小麦种植区内48个农业气象站1981～2010年的长序列物候观测记录,量化了小麦10个关键物候期和相应生长阶段长度的时空变化.结果表明,1981～2010年期间,在小麦生长季内气候显著变化背景下,小麦物候也发生了显著变化.在全国尺度,播种期、出苗期、三叶期和乳熟期平均推迟幅度分别为0.19、0.06、0.05和0.06d a~(-1);而分蘖期、拔节期、孕穗期、抽穗期、开花期和成熟期平均提前幅度依次为0.02、0.15、0.21、0.17、0.19和0.10d a~(-1);营养生长阶段长度和生长季长度分别平均缩短0.23和0.29d a~(-1),而生殖生长阶段长度平均延长0.06d a~(-1).不同种植区小麦物候期及生长阶段长度的变化趋势不尽相同.小麦生长季长度对生长季内气候因子变化敏感度的空间分异特征在春、冬小麦之间表现得尤为突出.春(冬)小麦生长季长度均随着生长季内平均温度上升而缩短(延长);所有种植区小麦生长季长度均随生长季内降水和日照时数增加而延长.其中,春小麦生长季长度对降水的敏感度小于冬小麦,但对日照时数的敏感度大于冬小麦.在进行农业生产管理时应因地制宜,充分考虑小麦物候变化及其对不同气候因子变化响应的空间分异特征.     

青藏高原农业现代化时空分异及其驱动机制

农业现代化是当代农村建设的重要内容和社会经济文明发展的重要衡量标准。本文基于1990—2017年青藏高原统计数据,构建农业现代化综合指标体系,运用熵值法计算各指标权重,进而获得农业现代化指数和各项指标贡献度,以此评估高原农业现代化发展时空特征和驱动因子。研究结果表明：① 1990—2017年青藏高原农业现代化水平普遍偏低（全区平均农业现代化指数为0.15）,呈增加趋势;② 从空间上看,农业现代化水平相对较高的地区分散在高原北部、西南部、南部边缘和一江两河的德格县、湟中县、白朗县、浪卡子县等部分县域;③ 农业现代化指标中,单位耕地面积用电量、有效灌溉率和土地生产率对高原农业现代化水平影响最大（对农业现代化指数的贡献度分别为13%、12%和11%）,其中单位耕地面积用电量和土地生产率增加促进了农业投入水平和农业产出水平,是农业现代化的主要正向驱动因子;单位耕地面积农药使用量的增加不利于环境可持续发展,是农业现代化的主要负向驱动因子。     

全球变化下作物物候研究进展

作物物候是农作物重要的植物属性,不仅反映作物的生长发育状况,其变化也影响作物产量,是一种能够指示气候变化的综合响应指标。以气温升高为主要标志的全球气候变化对作物物候产生了重要影响,开展全球气候变化下作物物候变化特征及其影响机制研究对于揭示全球变化对作物生长发育过程影响及其产量形成机制具有重要的理论意义和实践价值。目前,作物物候变化及其影响因素是国内外研究的焦点和热点问题,前人已开展了大量而卓有成效的研究工作。本文侧重介绍全球气候变化下作物物候变化的主要研究进展,包括作物物候变化的驱动因子及其影响机制和作物物候主要研究方法,并探讨未来研究仍亟待解决的关键科学问题,以期为深入认识全球气候变化对农业物候的影响机理以及指导区域农业生产实践提供理论依据。     

气候变化对山东省潘庄灌区冬小麦生长的影响(英文)

Global climate change has significant impacts on agricultural production.Future climate change will bring important influences to the food security.The CERES-Wheat model was used to simulate the winter wheat growing process and production in Panzhuang Irrigation District(PID) during 2011-2040 under B2 climate scenario based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios(SRES) assumptions with the result of RCMs(Regional Climate Models) projections by PRECIS(Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies) system introduced to China from the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research.The CERES-Wheat model was calibrated and validated with independent field-measured growth data in 2002-2003 and 2007-2008 growing season under current climatic conditions at Yucheng Comprehensive Experimental Station(YCES),Chinese Academy of Sciences(CAS).The results show that a significant impact of climate change on crop growth and yield was noted in the PID study area.Average temperature at Yucheng Station rose by 0.86℃ for 1961-2008 in general.Under the B2 climate scenario,average temperature rose by 0.55℃ for 2011-2040 compared with the baseline period(1998-2008),which drastically shortened the growth period of winter-wheat.However,as the temperature keep increasing after 2030,the top-weight and yield of the winter wheat will turn to decrease.The simulated evapotranspiration shows an increasing trend,although it is not very significant,during 2011-2040.Water use efficiency will increase during 2011-2031,but decrease during 2031-2040.The results indicate that climate change enhances agricultural production in the short-term,whereas continuous increase in temperature limits crop production in the long-term.     

基于多源信息融合的黄淮海地区植被覆盖变化遥感监测研究

植被是气候及其他环境因子的综合反映,植被变化与气候变化具有密切的关系。基于Holdridge生命地带指标法和非监督分类法,利用研究区1982年、1992年和2002年气候数据、NDVI数据和DEM数据融合后的多源数据,进行非监督分类。经过分类后处理、空间分析、数据挖掘后,得出黄淮海地区1982—2002年植被覆盖变化图。结果表明:20 a间黄淮海地区植被覆盖变化较为和缓,保持了较一致性;变化比较剧烈地区主要分布在二、三地形阶梯交界及400 mm左右年降水量线处、山东低山丘陵以及淮河下游地区。     

华北平原农业适应气候变化技术集成创新体系

适应气候变化技术的集成创新是应对气候变化的必要途径.以我国重要的商品粮生产基地--华北平原为例,分析了气候变化对华北平原农业的影响,提出华北平原农业适应气候变化的技术集成创新体系,包括：单一目标的农业适应技术集成体系,多目标综合的农业适应技术集成体系,多部门综合的农业适应技术集成体系和因地制宜的分区农业适应技术集成体系等;讨论了适应的不确定性、适应需求的差异性以及适应技术集成创新能力.最后指出,我国应对气候变化亟需开展不同领域适应气候变化技术的集成创新研究,构建不同部门适应气候变化技术的集成创新体系,使各种单项和分散的技术成果得到集成,从而建立完善的适应气候变化技术的集成创新机制.     

利用静止气象卫星监测沙尘暴

MODTRAN的理论模拟和实际卫星图象分析结果表明:分裂窗亮温差与11μm红外亮温的比值可以很好地反映弱沙尘的存在.当强沙尘出现时,借助于可见光、红外和水汽图象的光谱分类技术是监测沙尘暴的有效手段.作者首先介绍分裂窗处理技术和光谱分类技术,而后展示了国家卫星气象中心静止气象卫星沙尘暴自动监测精度的初步检验结果.     

青藏高原地区MODIS反照率的精度分析

应用2002-2004年青藏高原CAMP／Tibet试验期间4个地面站点的反照率观测结果定量分析Te丌aMODISlkm分辨率短波SW波段（0．3—5．0μm）反照率全反演结果和当量反演结果的精度。对于全反演结果,黑空反照率、白空反照率与地面观测结果的均方根差分别为0．0187和0．0168;对于当量反演结果,黑空反照率、白空反照率与地面观测结果的均方根差分别为0．0766和0．0761。综合全反演结果和当量反演结果,则黑空反照率、白空反照率与地面观测结果的均方根差分别为0．0679和0．0675。当地面观测结果与MODIS反照率当量反演结果均为“无雪”状态时,黑空反照率、白空反照率与地面观测结果的均方根差分别为0．0352和0．0364;当地面观测结果为“积雪”状态,MODIS反照率当量反演结果为“无雪”状态时,黑空反照率、白空反照率与地面观测结果的均方根差分别高达0．1556和0．1541。     

中国西南地区纵向岭谷地形对区域生态地理格局的作用(英文)

China’s southwestern special terrain pattern as parallel arrangement between longitudinal towering mountains and deep valleys has significant effects on the differentiation of local natural environment and eco-geographical pattern in this region.The 1:50,000 Digital Elevation Model(DEM) data of Longitudinal Range-Gorge Region(LRGR),meteorological observation data from the station establishment to 2010,hydrological observation data,Normalized Difference Vegetation Index(NDVI) and Net Primary Productivity(NPP) products of MOD13 and MOD17 as well as 1:1,000,000 vegetation type data were used.Moisture indices including surface atmospheric vapor content,precipitation,aridity/humidity index,surface runoff,and temperature indices including average temperature,annual accumulated temperature,total solar radiation were selected.Based on ANUSPLIN spline function,GIS spatial analysis,wavelet analysis and landscape pattern analysis,regional differentiation characteristics and main-control factors of hydrothermal pattern,ecosystem structure and function in this region were analyzed to reveal the effects of terrain pattern on regional differentiation of eco-geographical elements.The results show that:influenced by terrain pattern,moisture,temperature and heat in LRGR have shown significant distribution characteristics as intermittent weft differences and continuous warp extension.Longitudinal mountains and valleys not only have a north-south corridor function and diffusion effect on the transfer of major surface materials and energy,but also have east-west barrier function and blocking effect.Special topographic pattern has important influences on vegetation landscape diversity and spatial pattern of ecosystem structure and function,which is the main-control factor on vegetation landscape diversity and spatial distribution of ecosystem.Wavelet variance analysis reflects the spatial anisotropy of environmental factors,NDVI and NPP,while wavelet consistency analysis reveals the control factors on spatial distribution of NDVI and NPP as well as the quantitative relationship with control degree.Special terrain pattern in LRGR is the major influencing factor on eco-geographical regional differentiation in this region.Under the combined effect of zonality and non-zonality laws with "corridor-barrier" function as the main characteristic,special spatial characteristics of eco-geographical regional system in LRGR is formed.