位错模型的矿区地表沉降监测

为获取连续的矿区地表沉降变形场,揭示沉陷规律,及时预计沉降范围与大小,保障生产,该文提出了以精密水准测量数据为约束的加权位错监测及预计模型。视开采工作面为简化位错几何模型,顾及工作面近远场观测数据的不同,根据计算模型值与水准测量实测值的残差确定不同的权比,利用最小二乘线性算法反演垂直方向上的张裂参数。由张裂参数正演获取连续的地表形变场。并以多期观测反演所得的一维张裂参数的变化序列拟合预计模型,预测地表未来形变场。研究表明,提出的加权位错预计模型能更好地监测并预计矿区开采后的地表沉降变化,为采矿安全生产提供了依据。     

集合变换卡尔曼滤波局地化对区域集合初始扰动的影响

集合变换卡尔曼滤波(ensemble transform Kalman filter, ETKF)是一种有效的集合预报初始扰动构造方案。但是,有限的集合样本、相同的集合成员设置以及预报模式误差等可能会使两个距离较远的状态变量产生虚假相关,从而影响ETKF集合扰动的质量。为了有效解决远距离虚假相关问题,将局地化思想引入ETKF方案。本文针对GRAPES区域集合预报系统(GRAPES REPS),对ETKF初值扰动局地化方案的效果进行了试验分析,为进一步改善和优化局地化方案(LETKF方案)提供依据。通过一周的连续试验,从暴雨个例、集合预报多种评分检验等方面分析了LETKF初始扰动方案所产生的集合预报质量。结果表明,区域集合预报中集合变换卡尔曼滤波初始扰动的局地化方案能够更加合理地捕捉到快速增长的分析误差的物理结构,更准确地再现数值模式预报误差的线性与非线性传播和演变特征。该局地化方案可以较好地改进预报质量,提高降水预报的准确率,尤其是针对小雨、中雨、暴雨量级的预报。相对于现有区域集合预报的业务系统GRAPES REPS,基于局地化ETKF初始扰动方案的区域集合预报具有较明显的优势。总体来看,LETKF初始扰动方案可更好地改善区域集合预报的质量。     

飑线结构和强度对低层湿度和环境垂直风切变的敏感性研究

利用数值模式WRF进行二维飑线理想数值试验。通过改变初始场低层湿度和低层环境垂直风切变探讨了初始环境场对飑线在触发阶段与发展初期结构和强度的影响。低层湿度试验表明,增加低层湿度有利于初始启动阶段对流的发生从而使对流系统强度更强;飑线强度增加,对流上升运动增强,更有利于冷池前沿激发出新生对流单体,系统发展更快;同时激发更多降水,冷池强度增强。低层环境垂直风切变试验表明,在飑线触发阶段,更强的环境垂直风切变使对流主体前倾趋势更大,对对流的触发有阻碍作用;冷池和环境垂直风切变的相互作用被认为是飑线发展的重要机制,基于RKW理论,在飑线发展初期,近地面冷池相对较弱,在更弱的环境垂直风切变作用下更容易使对流结构呈直立状态从而产生更强和更深的上升运动,飑线强度增强。     

南极中山站站区上空气溶胶金属成分特征研究

连续三年(1998-2001年)采集了南极中山站的气溶胶样品,利用中子活化(INAA)分析其元素组成,采用作图法对元素的来源进行分析。结果表明除南极中山站气溶胶中的Na,Cl,Mg,Ca,Sr,Br,I和Rb等8个元素主要来自海洋,Al,Sc,Fe和Mn等4个元素主要来自陆源,而Se,Co,Sb,Zn和Cr等5个元素呈现出高度的富集,属于重金属污染特征元素,这可能与站区发电、垃圾焚烧、污水处理、车辆运行和加工制作等站务活动有关。     

湿度因子对适应性观测敏感区估算的影响研究

马旭林2008年的基于集合卡尔曼变换适应性观测敏感区的估算方案能得到较为合理的敏感区,但其未考虑湿度因子的影响。在原方案基础上增加了湿度因子,根据计算资料与度量标准的不同,搭建3个方案与其比较,并选用2008年年初冰冻雨雪灾害天气个例进行对比模拟试验。结果表明,原方案的敏感区较为分散,且当目标时刻与验证时刻重合时,存在虚假的信号方差大值区;加入湿度因子后能有效抑制虚假敏感区,改进度量标准后能得到较为理想的结果;若只利用湿度场进行敏感区估算,计算效果最优,在目标观测时刻所得敏感区最为集中并在目标时刻和验证时刻重合时无虚假信号方差大值区。     

北极地区碳循环研究意义和展望

全球变暖引发了北极地区的快速变化。北极地区苔原冻土带退化、海冰面积退缩和厚度变薄将使北极生态系发生重要变化 ,因而引起碳的生物地球化学循环过程变异。为精确评估北极地区对人为大气CO2 的吸收通量 ,围绕北极苔原、边缘海和极区海域的碳循环研究引起了重视。调查表明 ,北冰洋和亚北冰洋海冰区是海洋吸收大气CO2 的重要汇区 ,北冰洋具有吸收大气CO2 约 1×GtC/a的能力 ,北冰洋夏季冰缘区的长光照和高生产力促进了对大气CO2 的吸收能力 ,北冰洋深水环流和通风作用也有利于表层碳向深水转移。最近有些调查表明 ,如温度继续升高 ,北极苔原有可能从碳汇转变成大气碳源。国际上正加强北极地区碳循环研究的规划和计划 ,企图通过改进现场调查观测手段以及研究方法 ,来定量研究和模式预测变化中北极地区的碳汇潜力及其对地球气候的影响。     

CHEMICAL CHARACTERISTICS OF AEROSOLS IN THE KUROSHIO AREA——II.CHEMICAL FORMS AND SIZE DISTRIBUTIONS OF TRACE METALS

Aerosol samples were collected with a Sierrer Model 235 cascade impactor in the marine atmosphere over the Kuroshio area in consecutive four seasons from 1987 to 1988. Na, G, Al, V, and water soluble and acid soluble Mn, Fe, Pb, Cu, V, Cd were determined by neutron activation analysis and atomic absorption spectrophotometry, respectively. Seawater source chemical species in the aerosols appeared in high content in large over 3.6um diameter particles, and crustal source vanadium appeared in 3.6um diameter particles, but pollution source vanadium appeared in less than 0.52um diameter particles. Trace metals in the aerosols mostly had the highest concentration of water soluble metals on fine particles, and acid soluble metals on large particles. The concentrations of trace metals in the aerosols were higher in autumn and winter, lower in spring and summer.     

Comparison of airsea fluxes of CO2 in the Southern Ocean and the western Arctic Ocean

The data were collected during Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Expeditions in the western Arctic Ocean and the marginal sea ice zone (MSIZ) of the Southern Ocean, respectively in the boreal summer from July to September of 1999 and in the austral summer from December of 1999 to January of 2000. The concentrations of CO2 in surface water of the survey regions would mostly present lower than those in the atmosphere. A significant biological driving force could also been observed in summer waters in both of the above oceans. Air to sea CO2 fluxes were also calculated to compare oceanic uptake capacity of CO2 in both oceans with the world oceans using Liss, Wanninkhof, and Jacobs‘s methods. The averaged CO2 fluxes of air to sea in the western Arctic Ocean or in the MSIZ of the Southern Ocean doubled that in the world oceans.     

Characteristics of metals in the aerosols of Zhongshan Station, Antarctica

Instrumental neutron activation analysis (INAA) was applied to analyze the bulk, high-volume aerosol samples, collected at Zhongshan Station in the Eastern Antarctica, during 1998-2001, to study the chemical species. .A graphical technique was applied to the INAA data. Results showed that Na, Cl, Mg, Ca, Sr, Br, I, Sr and Rb were marine elements while Al, Sc, Fe and Mn were crustal elements. Compared to marine and crustal elements, five elements (Se、Co、Sb、Zn、Cr) were highly abundant in the aerosols collected at Zhongshan station, which indicated that they might come from the petroleum burning, heating and equipment operation. The presence of pollutant elements suggested that human activities have affected the local environments in Antarctica.     

Investigating the impact of the temporal resolution of MODIS data on measured phenology in the prairie grasslands

ABSTRACT

The temporal resolution of vegetation indices (VIs) determines the details of seasonal variation in vegetation dynamics observed by remote sensing, but little has been known about how the temporal resolution of VIs affects the retrieval of land surface phenology (LSP) of grasslands. This study evaluated the impact of temporal resolution of MODIS NDVI, EVI, and per-pixel green chromatic coordinate (GCCpp) on the quality and accuracy of the estimated LSP metrics of prairie grasslands. The near-surface PheonoCam phenology data for grasslands centered over Lethbridge PhenoCam grassland site were used as the validation datasets due to the lack of in situ observations for grasslands in the Prairie Ecozone. MODIS Nadir Bidirectional Reflectance Distribution Function (BRDF)-Adjusted Reflectance (NBAR) data from 2001 to 2017 were used to compute the time series of daily reference and to simulate 2–32 day MODIS VIs. The daily reference and simulated multi-day time series were fitted with the double logistic model, and the LSP metrics were then retrieved from the modeled daily time series separately. Comparison within satellite-based estimates showed no significant difference in the phenological metrics derived from daily reference and multi-day VIs resampled at a time step less than 18 days. Moreover, a significant decline in the ability of multi-day VIs to predict detailed temporal dynamics of daily reference VIs was revealed as the temporal resolution increased. Besides, there were a variety of trends for the onset of phenological transitions as the temporal resolution of VIs changed from 1 to 32 days. Comparison with PhenoCam phenology data presented small and insignificant differences in the mean bias error (MBE) and the mean absolute error (MAE) of grassland phenological metrics derived from daily, 8-, 10-, 14-, and 16-day MODIS VIs. Overall, this study suggested that the MODIS VIs resampled at a time step less than 18 days are favorable for the detection of grassland phenological transitions and detailed seasonal dynamics in the Prairie Ecozone.