川滇块体东北缘晚第四纪区域气候-地貌分析及其构造地貌年代学意义

地貌年代是新构造特别是活动构造定量研究的瓶颈问题.通过对川滇块体北东边界构造带所在的区域气候变化过程和地貌研究成果的综合分析.利用众多的年代学数据,从区域尺度对地貌的年代、形态和物质组成等特征对比分析,探讨了该区冰川地貌、河流阶地和冲洪积扇的演化特征,揭示了区域气候变化与区域性地貌演化存在的内在对应关系.气候变化产生的气温、湿度、降水量等变化控制了该区冰川地貌和流水地貌的演化.区域内冰川地貌主要是末次冰期的产物,对应于末次冰期两个冰阶,河流作用在7～10ka和1～5ka两个阶段改造末次冰期堆积地貌形成相应的侵蚀地貌.主要河流阶地发育对应于降水量剧烈变化的气候过程,其中形成三级阶地而的流水下切作用最强,随后堆积的深厚物质是二级阶地的主体,并一直没有被后期流水下切作用蚀穿,与气候变化的强度等特点对应.区内冲洪积扇主要有3个堆积时期,即3～5ka,7～10ka和20～25ka,主要发育在气候变化最剧烈的时期,大量的碎屑物形成并短距离搬运堆积.将区域分析综合的结果应运到康定南团结乡附近的地貌分析,可以很好的理解该区的地貌演化,用侵蚀改造的地貌演化结论否认了以前的堆积地貌认识,理清了地貌发育的年龄序列.综合分析与应用的结果表明,区域气候-地貌-构造系统研究对于活动构造年代学具有非常重要的意义.     

Static Stress Triggering Effects Related with M_s8.0 Wenchuan Earthquake

In this article, firstly, we calculated and analyzed the patterns of Coulomb stress changes induced by a sequence of strong earthquakes that occurred in Songpan (松潘), Sichuan (四川) Province in 1973 and 1976, and discovered that the Ms8.0 Wenchuan (汶川) earthquake of 2008 was epicentered in a relevant Coulomb stress triggering zone. This suggests that the Coulomb stress on the middle and southern segments of the Longmenshan (龙门山) fault zone increased after the Songpan sequence of strong earthquakes, and the st...     

时间-震级可预报模式在南北地震带分段危险性评估中的应用

为了定量评估南北地震带不同段落的长期地震危险性,引入了时间－震级可预报模式。在详细地震复发行为的基础上,沿南北地震带划分了３９个震源区。利用其中２７个震源的多轮回复发资料初步建立起时间－震级可预报统计模型。计算结果表明,不同震源的地震复发表现出较好的时间可预报行为以及相对较弱的震级可预报行为。以时间可预报模型为基础,对所有震源区未来地震的复发概率进行了估算,同时,用震级可预报模型对未来地震的震级作     

Earthquake recurrence on whole active fault zones and its relation to that on individual fault-segments

IntroductionEarthquake recurrence models established on activity behaviors of strong earthquakes are the bases of long-term earthquake prediction, seismic risk zonation, and seismic hazard assessment. A lot of studies have been carried out on earthquake recurrence behaviors for specific seismogenic sources or fault-segments, and a series of empirical recurrence models have been proposed, such as the time-predictable model and the slip-predictable model for earthquakes repeated at the previous …