水文气象极值统计推断的可靠性问题

论述极值统计推断不可靠的表现、产生原因及提高可靠性的途径、可操作性方法和可靠性评价。提出收敛域准则、极大似然估计的精估计和粗估计、泛似然估计、多母体现象,应用超拟合现象、抽样误差、蒙特卡罗随机模拟等概念或方法,得出全国各气象站多个气象要素的可靠极值统计推断结果,初步形成小样本统计理论。     

温度周期性波动对凡纳滨对虾稚虾蜕壳和蜕壳激素含量的影响

采用实验生态学方法,以温度25℃为对照,研究了四种温度波动幅度(25±1、25±2、25±3、25±4℃)对凡纳滨对虾(Litopenaeus vannamei)稚虾蜕壳率争蜕壳激素滴度的影响.主要实验结果如下:(1)25±3℃和25±4℃组对虾的蜕壳率显著高于其他各处理组(P＜0.05).(2)5种温度处理下,对虾血...     

Effects of photoperiod on daily activity rhythm of juvenile sea cucumber, Apostichopus japonicus (Selenka)

In nature, Apostichopus japonicus exhibits a behavioral characteristic of emerging at night and sheltering during the day. Hence, it was commonly believed that longer and darker light conditions are better for a population of A. japonicus. In aquaculture situations therefore, animals have commonly been cultured without lighting, especially during juvenile-hatching culture. However, how the length of darkness each day affects A. japonicus and what the mechanism is of behavioral response of A. japonicus to different photoperiods remain unclear, and are specifically addressed in this study. We applied nine photoperiod treatments (light:dark (LD) cycles at 0:24, 3:21, 6:18, 9:15, 12:12, 15:9, 18:6, 21:3, and 24:0 under 500 lx) to 60 individuals (29.73 ± 0.23 g) per treatment (with 3 replicates). The environmental conditions were set as: water temperature = 16.9 ± 0.3°C, dissolved oxygen>6.0 mg/L, ammonia<0.3 mg/L, pH = 7.8-8.2, and salinity = 30-32. Under experimental conditions of continuous darkness as well as continuous light, cyclic nocturnal activity patterns of A. japonicus (viz. the animals emerged and fed at night and sheltered during the day) were observed. However, they spent more and less time, respectively, moving and feeding under continuous darkness and continuous light, than those under a natural light cycle. Under photoperiods with 6-12 h of light, the animals showed one sheltering behavior transition and two emerging behavior transitions. These behavior transitions appeared to be governed by some internal physiological factors and induced by daily light variation. The behavior of the animals was significantly affected by different photoperiods, and the distribution rate (DR) of the animals emerging at "daytime" increased with lengthening "light time" (except for the LD 3:21 cycle). We also found that there was no significant difference in mean DR per day under LD cycles of 6:18, 9:15, 15:9, and 12:12. Mean DRs per day were significantly lower for these photoperiods, than for those under LD cycles of 0:24 and 3:21, and significantly higher than for those under LD cycles of 18:6, 21:3 and 24:0. These results imply that 6-15 h light per day were the similar photoperiods to natural sunlight. From the viewpoint of activity and feeding behaviors, these might be the optimal photoperiods for rearing A. japonicus.     

高温刺激对刺参浮游期幼体存活率及Hsp70表达量的影响

设计不同温度(21.5,26,28和30℃),对刺参(Apostichopus japonicus)囊胚期、原肠期和耳状幼体期幼体进行热激处理,热激45 min后,将幼体在21.5℃条件下继续培养至耳状幼体后期,计算刺参幼体的存活率,并用蛋白杂交方法测定幼体Hsp70的表达量。结果表明,高温刺激对幼体的存活有显著性影响,各时期幼体的存活率均随热激温度的升高而降低,原肠期的存活率要高于囊胚期和耳状幼体时期。原肠期幼体Hsp70表达量要比囊胚期和耳状幼体时期高,这表明在发育过程中Hsp70表达量与幼体存活率具有相关性。     

海蜇养殖港塭微型浮游动物的摄食和生产力研究

通过对山东省靖海湾海蜇养殖港塭定期采样,采用稀释法研究该海蜇养殖港塭水体中浮游植物的生长率、微型浮游动物对浮游植物的摄食率、摄食压力以及微型浮游动物的生产力。研究结果表明,海蜇养殖港塭微型浮游动物组成比较简单,海蜇养殖期间微型浮游动物丰度低于海蜇捕捞结束期。其中,海蜇养殖期间微型浮游动物的优势种为根状拟铃虫(Tintinnopsis radix),为600~2 600 ind/L,而海蜇捕捞结束后优势种为根状拟铃虫、诺氏麻铃虫(Leprotintinnus nordquisti)和运动类铃虫(Codonellopsis mobilis),丰度分别为3 000~6 000、1 500~3 0001、500~3 000 ind/L。研究期间,该港塭浮游植物生长率为0.05~1.03 d-1。微型浮游动物的摄食率为0.24~2.37 d-1,对浮游植物现存量的摄食压力为21.10%~90.61%,对潜在初级生产力的摄食压力为77.08%~583.68%,而微型浮游动物的次级生产力占初级生产力的22.92%~76.92%。本研究表明微型浮游动物在海蜇养殖港塭生态系统物质和能量流动中起着重要作用。     

Growth inhibition to three red tide microalgae by extracts of Ulva pertusa

1 INTRODUCTION In recent decades, red tides that induced by in- creasing eutrophication occur frequently in coastal areas worldwide. This has caused serious problems in marine environment, aquaculture industries and human health (Qi et al., 1993; Horner e…     

不同复合微生态制剂添加方式对凡纳滨对虾生长、非特异性免疫及抗病力的影响

以初始体重(2.66±0.02)g凡纳滨对虾(Litopenaeus vannamei)为研究对象,研究了不同复合微生态制剂添加方式对凡纳滨对虾的生长、血清非特异性免疫酶活性及抗病力的影响。实验设计了4个处理组和1个对照组。A为对照组,投喂对虾配合饲料,不添加任何微生态制剂;B为拌服复合菌制剂组;C为后喷涂复合菌制剂组;D为复合菌酶颗粒制剂组(复合菌与复合酶等复配后低温制粒);E为固体发酵制剂组,即添加复合菌固体发酵培养物后制粒的配合饲料。实验在400L养殖槽中进行,每个处理组分别设3个重复,养殖周期为54d。养殖实验结束后,采用浸浴法以副溶血弧菌(Vibrio parahaemolyticus)进行14d的攻毒实验。研究表明:各组对虾的养殖成活率均在90%以上,不同处理组间差异不显著(P 0.05)。除拌服复合菌制剂处理组外,其他处理组均能显著提高对虾生长率(P0.05)。与对照组相比,各处理组均可不同程度提高对虾血清超氧化物歧化酶、碱性磷酸酶、酸性磷酸酶、溶菌酶、总一氧化氮合酶和诱导型一氧化氮合酶的活性;其中,固体发酵制剂组效果最显著,菌酶颗粒制剂处理组居次。副溶血弧菌攻毒实验表明,除拌服液体复合菌制剂处理组外,其他处理组均能显著提高对虾成活率(P0.05),其中以固体发酵制剂组效果最佳。研究结果表明,饲料中合理添加复合菌制剂、复合菌酶制剂及复合菌培养物能有效促进凡纳滨对虾的生长,提高对虾血清的非特异性免疫酶活性,增强对虾对副溶血弧菌的抗病力,其中以添加复合菌固体发酵培养物饲料的效果最佳。     

饲料中肉骨粉和豆粕替代鱼粉对虹鳟生长和氮收支的影响

本实验采用混合动植物蛋白(肉骨粉和豆粕1∶1混合)替代鱼粉投喂虹鳟(Oncorhynchus mykiss)幼鱼((46±0.23)g),研究饲料中肉骨粉和豆粕部分替代鱼粉对虹鳟幼鱼生长性能和氮收支的影响。实验设置了4个处理组,依据等氮等脂的原则,用混合蛋白分别替代0、10%、30%和50%的鱼粉,分别为D1、D2、D3和D4,蛋白水平和脂肪水平分别为43.8%和15.1%。将虹鳟幼鱼在16℃的条件下养殖21天,每日饱食投喂一次并且收集残饵粪便。研究表明:用肉骨粉和豆粕部分替代鱼粉不会影响虹鳟幼鱼的终末体重,与全鱼粉组比较,D3组和D4组呈现出较低的生长性能(P0.05),而10%替代组的摄食率、消化率和特定生长率更高,表现出更好的生长趋势(P0.05)。氮收支方面,虹鳟幼鱼的氮收支过程中氮排泄是主要损失途径。随着替代水平的上升,氮排泄和损失也呈上升趋势,但是全鱼粉组和10%替代组之间的氮排泄量差异不显著(P0.05)。实验结果表明,从生长性能和氮收支两方面综合考虑,饲料中用肉骨粉和豆粕替代10%鱼粉投喂虹鳟幼鱼效果更佳;且排泄是虹鳟幼鱼氮收支的主要途径。     

草鱼混养系统细菌数量变动和群落功能多样性研究

为了解草鱼混养系统不同养殖模式的细菌数量变动和群落功能多样性,采用平板菌落计数法和吖啶橙直接镜检计数法(AODC)研究草鱼(Ctenopharyngodon idellus)混养系统水体和底泥的异养菌和总菌的数量,并应用BIOLOG生态微板对3个模式中水体和底泥的微生物群落功能多样性进行探讨。结果表明,3个模式的水体中异养菌数和总菌数均随月份呈先下降后上升的趋势,而底泥中异养菌数量和总菌数则为先升高后降低再升高的趋势。不同模式比较,草鱼、鲢鱼和鲤鱼混养系统(GSC)中水体和底泥中异养菌数和总菌数要显著高于其它模式(P<0.05)。BIOLOG生态微板实验结果显示,不同养殖模式环境中细菌群落对碳源利用以及细菌群落多样性均存在差异。随着养殖时间延长,GSC三元混养模式水体和底泥中细菌功能多样性和代谢活性均显著高于其它模式(P<0.05)。研究表明,草鱼(Ctenopharyngodonidellus)、鲢鱼(Hypophythalmichthys molitrix)和鲤鱼(Cyprinus carpio)的三元合理混养使得系统中微生物的结构和功能得到优化,细菌群落的组成与代谢功能更趋于丰富化和多样化。     

气象要素极值统计的稳定性、多母体现象和区域极值

本文以Gumbel分布为例说明极大似然法估计参数可明显减小抽样误差的影响;说明极值样本中个别极大点数据是引起统计结果不稳定的根本原因;指出它们来自另外的统计母体,即存在多母体现象。对包含极大点数据的稀遇极值用区域极值进行统计,显著提高了结果的稳定性。为方便设计应用,还导出了区域极值的单站发生概率。