深圳市快速抑制COVID-19疫情的非药物干预措施效果评估：基于智能体的建模研究

在2020年COVID-19第一波疫情中,通过一系列非药物干预措施,国内许多城市实现了疫情的快速抑制。对这些交叉叠加的多项干预措施进行单项措施的效果评估,识别出关键的防控策略,能够为未来的疫情防控提供重要的经验与科学依据。本研究以深圳市为例,利用融合了多源时空轨迹大数据的空间显式智能体模型评估深圳市快速抑制第一波疫情的各项非药物干预措施效果,识别出核心措施与辅助措施。模拟结果显示,在深圳市第一波疫情中,单项干预措施有效性从高到低依次为居家令、综合隔离、佩戴口罩与分批复工。其中,居家令或综合隔离均能有效抑制疫情的大范围暴发,被本研究称之为核心措施;佩戴口罩或分批复工则只能从不同程度上降低总体感染规模并延缓疫情峰值,并不能抑制疫情暴发,被本研究称之为辅助措施。考虑到社会经济成本以及常态化防疫中人群依从性降低,本研究建议在COVID-19 散发疫情防控中将核心措施与辅助措施相结合,重点实施各项隔离措施,同时将外出佩戴口罩作为疫情常态化防控手段。此外,本研究展示了结合时空大数据与智能体模型精细化模拟城市内部传染病扩散过程的优势：不仅能在城市内部高精度推演疫情发展过程,而且能够支撑评估面向个体及各类型出行活动的非药物干预措施实施效果,为制定针对性、精细化的“时间-空间-人群”防控策略提供重要的科学依据。     

湖泊水、沉积物氮磷的空间分析及其耦合特征研究——以大通湖为例

大通湖是湖南省面积最大的淡水养殖湖泊,冬季作为捕鱼的旺季并且水位较低,水体和表面沉积物中氮、磷容易受到渔业生产的影响。本文从地统计学出发,通过研究冬季大通湖水体和沉积物中有机质(OM)、氮(N)和磷(P)的空间结构特征及其耦合关系,探讨大通湖富营养化程度及其影响因素,为可持续水产养殖和生态修复提供科学依据。结果表明:冬季大通湖水体中总氮(TN)、总磷(TP)浓度较高,平均值分别达到了3.78mg/L和0.29mg/L,为劣Ⅴ类。水体中NH_4~+含量相对较低,平均为0.17mg/L,属于地表水Ⅱ类。与2011年数据比较,沉积物中TP浓度较高,平均升高到了1469mg/kg;而沉积物TN基本持平,平均为1224mg/kg;沉积物TP和水NO_3~-的"块金值/基台值"分别为43.4%和34.5%,表现为中等空间相关性(spatial dependence),其他N、P指标的"块金值/基台值"均低于25%,表现为强烈空间相关性。冬季大通湖沉积物OM、TN和TP在空间上呈现出有规律的带状分布,而水体N、P大体上呈现出"品"字形的斑块分布;水体中的氮磷比平均为13.03,比较适合浮游植物生长;沉积物OM只与沉积物TN和TP呈极显著正相关(P0.01),而积物中TN和TP与水体中的TN和TP相关性不显著。因此,大通湖水体修复在控制外源输入的情况下,还应考虑综合的生态系统工程措施。     

DEM上大规模空间遮挡判断方法研究

利用1：5万DEM数据,针对起伏较大的山地地形,提出基于高效空间搜索算法的日照时数计算方法。这种空间搜索算法是根据太阳位置将DEM分割成一系列平行条带,使得在某时刻可能互相遮挡的栅格都集中在一个条带内,从而缩小判断遮挡关系的遮挡范围,提高算法的效率和质量,并结合桐庐县气象站气象记录作相关分析。结果表明,模拟值和地面实测值的相关性较高,该方法能够比较精确地计算中低纬度地区复杂地形的日照时数。     

A Model for Environmental Impact Assessment of Land Reclamation

Land reclamation is a complex marine environmental engineering and has a huge impact on social, economic, and physical environment. Reclamation environmental impact assessment (REIA) is also a complicated project, including the assessment of social economic background, ocean engineering, coastal geomorphology, sediment transportation, marine hydrodynamics and marine ecosystem and so on. Nowadays, a large number of land reclaimed projects have been carried out or in the process of construction along the coastal zone, thus, it is necessary to build up a framework on REIA to evaluate and quantify the environmental changes, to contribute to reclamation program, to reduce marine environmental disasters, and to sustain development of coastal zone. This article focuses on the research of REIA framework theory and puts forward a REIA model on land reclaimed evaluation, at the same time, applies this assessment system in Shenzhen City, which is a highly developed coastal city with an expectation of land reclamation. By use of the Remote Sensing (RS) and Geographic Information System (GIS) techniques, along with the topographic map and in situ survey in reclamation area, it concludes that the area of 2680 hectares in total has been reclaimed in Shenzhen city by the end of the year 2000. Thus, reclamation is usually applied to meet the needs for infrastructure, such as harbors, industries and highways in Shenzhen City. However, some serious negative impacts have been created to the coastal environment shown clearly in the following aspects. Firstly, it caused the dramatic changes of tidal flat and channels along the western coast, made this area more unstable, which is threatening the function of the harbor in this area. Secondly, Tidal prism has decreased rapidly. During the 20 years of reclamation, the tidal prism has been reduced by 20%～30% along the western coast in the Lingdingyang Estuary, and 15.6% in the Shenzhen Bay. As a result, the velocity of the tidal current has also declined, and the direction of the tidal current has changed, which is harmful to the dilution and diffusion process of the contaminants. Thirdly, it has threatened the eco-environment finally. More than 147 hectares of mangrove area along the coast of Shenzhen Bay, accounting for 48.8% of the total mangrove reserve area in this region, has been reclaimed only during the short period from 1988 to 2000. Thus, the biodiversity is decreasing, and more and more plants and animals are disappearing. Based on the above analyses of the environmental impacts, strategies and suggestions for the future reclamation in this area have been put forward in order to support the sustainable development of the coastal zone.     

GIS网络多媒体教学系统的设计与运行

为了适应21世纪课程教材《地理信息系统概论》的教学需要,以及该学科面向社会普及的发展趋势,南京大学在Authorware开发环境下完成了GIS网络多媒体教学系统的设计与实现,并通过ActiveX插件的形式将Authorware课件与前期建立的GIS教学网站有机地结合起来,形成面向网络的GIS多媒体教学系统。该系统将学生置于网络交互状态下,在仿真环境中了解并掌握GIS系统的基础知识、基本操作以及应用特色,最终实现GIS教学手段的现代化,达到提高GIS科技普及程度的目标。