渤、黄、东海海域9711号风暴潮数值模拟

以整个东中国海为计算域,采用 64 个天文分潮控制外海边界,用台风中心气压、最大风速为参数,建立球面坐标系下平面二维风暴潮数学模型,模拟风暴潮与天文潮的耦合流场.数学模型采用改进的 ADI 法求解,以 9711 号台风为例,对风暴潮数学模型进行了风暴潮增水验证,数值模拟结果与实测值符合良好.     

大地形上空地转基流中波动的传播和稳定性

研究表明，地形北坡上空东风基本气流中的重力惯性波最易出现不稳定发展，地形坡度大于１‰的地形南坡上空强西风气流中重力惯性波和地形罗斯贝波都是不稳定的。只有在西风气流中重力惯性波才会出现明显的相对基本气流的东、西传播现象。     

中国沿海登陆热带气旋活动特征分析

热带气旋是危害中国最严重的天气系统,分析和认识中国沿海登陆热带气旋活动的新特征对防灾减灾具有重要意义。依据近70年气象资料,采用统计学方法,对登陆中国沿海的热带气旋特征进行分析,研究发现:在气候变化的背景下,登陆中国的热带气旋发生了明显变化。近年台风登陆频数高于往年平均,其整体强度和最大值均呈增大趋势,年台风强度的不稳定性加剧;研究还发现台风强度越高,其生成地纬度带范围越窄且越靠近赤道;建立了高强度热带气旋（STY和SUPER TY）时间和纬度的关系"φ—m"。检验了台风季长与初旋日呈负相关且不受厄尔尼诺现象影响,台风季长符合正态分布并给出概率密度公式。     

Comparison Study on Wind Input and Whitecapping Dissipation Expressions in Numerical Simulation of Typhoon-Generated Waves

In order to investigate the effect of wind input and whitecapping dissipation on the simulation of typhoon-waves, three experiments are conducted with the latest version of SWAN (Simulating WAves Nearshore) model.The three experiments adopt the Komen, Janssens, and Westhuysen expressions for wind input and whitecappingdissipation, respectively. Besides the above-mentioned source terms, other parameterization schemes in these experiments are the same. It shows that the experiment with the Westhuysen expression result in the least simulationerrors while that with the Janssens expression has the most. The results from the experiments with Komen and Westhuysen expressions show that the differences in significant wave height (SWH) have good correlation with thedifferences in dissipation energy caused by whitecapping. This indicates that the whitecapping dissipation sourceterm plays an important role in the resultant differences of the simulated SWH between the two experiments.     

风暴潮模拟中潮位对风拖曳力系数的影响研究

近年来,应用数值模型模拟台风引起的风暴潮运动越来越普遍,模型中对于风拖曳力系数的确定,一般都从相对风速出发,可引用的公式也较多,但这些公式很少考虑潮位变化对此系数的影响.在强潮河口、海岸海域,潮位变幅大,最高潮位甚至可达风速参考高度(10m)的近一半,如长江口和杭州湾.在数值模拟中不考虑风暴潮和天文潮共同引起的潮位变化,会造成风应力高潮时被低估、低潮时被高估的现象,从而影响风暴潮模拟的精度.为此本文对现有的风拖曳力系数加以改进,提出了考虑潮位影响的风拖曳力系数表达式,并应用于长江口、杭州湾9711号台风风暴潮的模拟中,增水模拟结果得到了明显改善,可进一步推广应用于强潮河口、海岸的风暴潮增水模拟中.     

Study on the Tidal Wave System and Formation Mechanism of M_2 Tide in the Taiwan Strait

To study the Taiwan Strait （TS）, an unusual sea area, the numerical model in marginal seas of China is used to simulate and analyze the tidal wave motion in the strait. The numerical modeling experiments reproduce the amphidromic system of the M2 tide in the south end of the Taiwan strait, and consequently confirm the existence of the degenerate amphidromic system. On this basis, further discussion is conducted on the M2 system and its formation mechanism. It can be concluded that the tidal waves of the TS is consisted of the progressing wave from the north entrance and the degenerate amphidromic system from the south entrance, in which the progressing wave from the north entrance dominates the tidal wave motion in the strait. Except for the convergent effect caused by the landform and boundary, the degenerate amphidromic system produced in the south of the strait is another important factor for the following phenomena： the large tidal range in the middle of the strait, the concentrative zone of co-amplitude and co-phase line in the south of the strait. The degenerate amphidromic system is mainly produced by the incident Pacific Ocean tidal wave from the Luzon strait and the action by the shoreline and landform. The position of the amphidromic point is compelled to move toward southwest until degenerating by the powerful progressing wave from the north entrance.     

河口海岸二维悬沙数学模型挟沙力公式修正及应用

在河口海岸二维悬沙数学模型中,半潮或全潮平均的潮流挟沙能力并不能完全反映其逐时的实际情况,为此进行了分析研究。研究结果表明:1)应用半潮或全潮平均的潮流挟沙力公式进行悬沙数值模拟时,应引入一个修正系数;2)该修正系数与公式中的指数成反比,与相对水深成正比,且与相位角也存在一定联系;3)该修正系数理论正确、实用方便、验证成果良好,实例计算表明能够较好地复演天然悬沙场分布。     

华北地区一次中-α尺度强涡旋发展的数值模拟

本文用 PSU/NCAR-MM4三维中尺度模式模拟一次华北地区冷锋越过太行山进入华北平原后,中尺度气旋的发展过程及其三维结构。当锋区移过太行山后可以形成若干个中-α尺度涡旋,当涡旋进入华北平原时,涡旋的低层位于干线前缘的湿中心处,同时由于有低层冷空气的侵入,涡旋处在很强斜压状态中。最大正涡度区位于涡旋前部,强辐合是该中尺度系统涡度加强的重要原因。     

NUMERICAL SIMULATION OF TYPHOON WAVE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WINNIE （NO. 9711）

In this paper, the wind field provided by a meso-scale atmospheric model is employed. When main physical processes, including wave-current interactions, are considered, the latest version of the third generation wave model SWAN is applied to simulate the typhoon wave generated by Typhoon Winnie. The model results are compared with the TOPEX/POSEIDON and ERS-2 satellite altimeter data and analyzed in details. Then the distribution of wave fields are analyzed, with the results showing that applying SWAN to simulate large-scale domain can also fairly reproduce the observed features of waves and realistically reflect the distribution of typhoon waves.     

中尺度大气模式MM5简介

本文介绍了中尺度非静力大气模式MM5的动力框架、模式物理过程计算和参数化方法以及模式系统流程。