利用气枪地震资料研究燕山隆起带南部地区地壳S波速度及泊松比结构

泊松比是了解地球内部介质的一个重要参数,在地震学上可以通过P波和S波速度的比值来确定.但是传统人工地震测深采用的炸药等爆破源产生的S波较弱,难以用来研究泊松比结构.对2006年河北省遵化市上关湖水库大容量气枪试验产生的地震数据进行研究,发现气枪震源能够有效地产生S波.根据偏振分析,认为S波主要是气枪产生的P波在水库底部固液界面转换产生的.波形拟合能够充分利用波形和走时信息,是研究地下结构的一种有效的方法.对气枪产生的S波进行波形拟合,获得了燕山隆起带南部地区地壳的S波速度模型,并对比修正后的P波速度模型,进一步得到了该地区的泊松比结构.研究表明:1)该地区的地壳厚度约为33km.2)该地区地壳整体泊松比值偏低,上(0～14km)中(14～28km)下(28～33km)地壳以及上地幔顶部(33km附近)的泊松比平均值分别为0.25,0.25,0.27,0.27.上地壳和中地壳可能以长英质的酸性岩石为主,下地壳和上地幔顶部可能以铁镁质的基性岩石和中性岩石为主.3)该地区上下地壳各存在一个低速层,它们可能主要是流体作用的结果.     

广东省雷暴天气气候特征分析

分析了广东省86个站1971-2004年历年平均雷暴日数、初终雷日资料,以及南雄、增城、汕头、电白平均逐日气温资料的气候变化规律,并通过分析雷暴与气温的相互关系,揭示出广东省的雷暴主要由热力条件引起。     

VALIDATION OF NEAR-SURFACE WINDS OBTAINED BY A HYBRID WRF/CALMET MODELING SYSTEM OVER A COASTAL ISLAND WITH COMPLEX TERRAIN

The results from a hybrid approach that combines a mesoscale meteorological model with a diagnostic model to produce high-resolution wind fields in complex coastal topography are evaluated.The diagnostic wind model(California Meteorological Model,CALMET) with 100-m horizontal spacing was driven with outputs from the Weather Research and Forecasting(WRF) model to obtain near-surface winds for the 1-year period from 12 September 2003 to 11 September 2004.Results were compared with wind observations at four sites.Traditional statistical scores,including correlation coefficients,standard deviations(SDs) and mean absolute errors(MAEs),indicate that the wind estimates from the WRF/CALMET modeling system are produced reasonably well.The correlation coefficients are relatively large,ranging from 0.5 to 0.7 for the zonal wind component and from 0.75 to 0.85 for the meridional wind component.MAEs for wind speed range from 1.5 to 2.0 m s-1 at 10 meters above ground level(AGL) and from 2.0 to 2.5 m s-1 at 60 m AGL.MAEs for wind direction range from 30 to 40 degrees at both levels.A spectral decomposition of the time series of wind speed shows positive impacts of CALMET in improving the mesoscale winds.Moreover,combining the CALMET model with WRF significantly improves the spatial variability of the simulated wind fields.It can be concluded that the WRF/CALMET modeling system is capable of providing a detailed near-surface wind field,but the physics in the diagnostic CALMET model needs to be further improved.     

风电场风资源测量与计算的精度控制

根据多个复杂地形风电场观测操作实践和大量观测数据的计算分析,提出了对观测数据和计算质量精度控制的主要措施,包括:复杂地形测风站布设的5个原则,仪器的合理选型和设置;对由于测风仪固有的系统误差和缺测数据的插补订正可能引起的计算误差进行了定量估算,通过对大量实测数据的对比计算显示:①目前普遍采用的进口风速计的相对偏差在1.6%～5.25%之间,由此可导致轮毂高度附近的年平均风功率密度误差在5%以上,最大达13.8%;②在季风气候区、复杂地形和风的年变率较大的地区,进行缺测数据插补订正时,应选取同季或同一主导风向的数据作为插补订正的基础数据,否则可能导致其平均风功率密度相对误差达20%～50%.     

重现期风速风压计算系统介绍

介绍“重现期风速风压计算系统”采用4种概率分布模型（极值Ⅰ型分布、韦布尔分布、皮尔逊Ⅲ型分布和对数正态分布）,计算工程抗风设计所需的重现期风速、风压等参数,同时给出剩余方差、柯尔莫哥洛夫拟合适度检验指标、拟合相对偏差等拟合优度指标,便于不同概率分布模型计算结果的对比分析。     

新旧观测标准统计的灰霾时空分布特征对比

通过对比分析新旧观测标准下广东灰霾时空分布特征,认为新标准下霾日的分布与变化较旧标准更为合理,进一步说明了广东霾日的变化趋势与广东的经济发展及大气环境质量的变化是相关的。建议：由于灰霾观测新标准中仍然存在需人为判断的区域,若在新标准中引入大气气溶胶浓度观测数据,从本质上将灰霾与轻雾和雾区分,将更加有利于灰霾的统计和分析,有利于标准的推广和普及。     

广东韶关南华寺水松的年代及生境初步研究

通过树轮钻取样及查考历史资料,论证南华寺水松栽种年代分别为明代正德十四年、清代康熙初年及清代同治末年.取水样作化学分析及收集近数十年环境观测资料,分析水松荣枯的原因.认为环境污染及不恰当人为活动是多株水松枯萎的主要原因.     

强台风“黑格比”实测海上风电机组极端风况特征参数分析和讨论

利用广东近海海上一座100 m高气象塔上设置的三维超声测风仪获取的强台风“黑格比”过程实测数据,分析研究海上风电机组在强台风影响下极端载荷参数的变化特征,通过仪器直接测量的参数与IEC 61400-1规范(由国际电工委员会制定)推荐方法计算结果的对比,研究该规范推荐的风电机组极端载荷参数计算方法在台风条件下的适用性。研究结果表明：(1) 强台风“黑格比”在近海海面上产生的极端操作阵风风速和极端风向变幅的过程变化均呈“M”型双峰分布,最大值均出现在台风眼壁强风区;(2) 由仪器直接测量的极端操作阵风风速和极端风向变幅值与根据IEC公式计算结果差别明显;(3) 台风强风影响产生的极端操作阵风和极端风向变幅参数均出现超越IEC给出的三种标准类型风电机组的设计上限标准;并且IEC公式计算值比仪器直接测量值显著偏大;(4) 在风电机组处于满发、切出和停机生存等工况下,IEC公式计算和仪器直接测量的极端操作阵风基本一致,但IEC公式对极端风向变幅的计算值要比仪器直接测量值大。与IEC的风电机组设计标准相比,仪器直接测量的极端操作阵风在时间周期1～3.5 s和7～10 s区间超出标准,但极端风向变幅一般不会突破IEC的风电机组设计标准。     

Characteristics of Drag Coefficient in Different Coastal Regions of the South China Sea Under Tropical Cyclones–An Observational Study

To investigate the values of 10-m drag coefficient (CD) in different coastal areas under the influence of tropical cyclones, the present study used the observational data from four towers in different coastal areas of the South China Sea (SCS) during six tropical cyclone (TC) passages, and employed the eddy covariance method and the flux profile method. The analysis of footprint showed that the fluxes at Zhizai Island (ZZI), Sanjiao Island (SJI) and Donghai Island (DHI) were influenced basically by the ocean, and the flux at Shangyang Town (SYT) was influenced mainly by the land. The results showed that the dependence relationships of CD on 10-m wind speed (U10) in four different coastal areas under the influence of TCs were different. CD at ZZI and SJI initially increased and then decreased as U10 increased, similar to the pattern over the ocean. CD at ZZI and SJI represented the values over shallow water with seawater depths of ~7 m and ~2 m, respectively. Moreover, the critical wind speed at which CD peaked gradually decreased as the seawater depth became shallower in the coastal areas. CD at DHI and SYT decreased monotonously as U10 increased, similar to the pattern over the land. CD at DHI represented the value over the transition zone from shallow water to coastal land, and CD at SYT represented the value over the coastal land. Meanwhile, the eddy covariance method and the flux profile method were compared at ZZI and SYT during TC passages. It was found that their CD values obtained by the two methods were close. Finally, the parameterizations of observed u* and CD as a function of U10 over four different coastal areas were given under the influence of high winds. These parameterizations of observed C may be used in high-resolution numerical models for landfalling TC forecast.     

高血压周发病率与天气变化关系探讨

采用广州市多家医院的高血压周发病人数的入院资料和广州市地面气象要素资料 ,应用逐步回归方法和对热带气旋及冷空气影响下模型计算值的变化进行订正的办法 ,分别建立冬、夏半年的高血压周发病人数与气象条件及其变化的线性回归关系模型 ,并制定合理反映高血压发生程度的指数 ,从而预测未来 1周广州市高血压的发生程度。