Arctic sea ice volume export through the Fram Strait from combined satellite and model data: 1979–2012

By combing satellite-derived ice motion and concentration with ice thickness fields from a popular model PIOMAS we obtain the estimates of ice volume flux passing the Fram Strait over the 1979–2012 period. Since current satellite and field observations for sea ice thickness are limited in time and space, the use of PIOMAS is expected to fill the gap by providing temporally continued ice thickness fields. Calculated monthly volume flux exhibits a prominent annual cycle with the peak record in March(roughly 145 km3/month) and the trough in August(10 km~3/month). Annual ice volume flux(1 132 km~3) is primarily attributable to winter(October through May) outflow(approximately 92%). Uncertainty in annual ice volume export is estimated to be 55 km~3(or 5.7%). Our results also verified the extremely large volume flux appearing between late 1980 s and mid-1990 s. Nevertheless, no clear trend was found in our volume flux results. Ice motion is the primary factor in the determination of behavior of volume flux. Ice thickness presented a general decline trend may partly enhance or weaken the volume flux trend. Ice concentration exerted the least influences on modulating trends and variability in volume flux. Moreover, the linkage between winter ice volume flux and three established Arctic atmospheric schemes were examined. Compared to NAO, the DA and EOF3 mechanism explains a larger part of variations of ice volume flux across the strait.     

北极地区不同冰龄的海冰厚度变化研究

In this study, changes in Arctic sea ice thickness for each ice age category were examined based on satellite observations and modelled results. Interannual changes obtained from Ice, Cloud, and Land Elevation Satellite(ICESat)-based results show a thickness reduction over perennial sea ice(ice that survives at least one melt season with an age of no less than 2 year) up to approximately 0.5–1.0 m and 0.6–0.8 m(depending on ice age) during the investigated winter and autumn ICESat periods, respectively. Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System(PIOMAS)-based results provide a view of a continued thickness reduction over the past four decades. Compared to 1980 s, there is a clear thickness drop of roughly 0.50 m in 2010 s for perennial ice. This overall decrease in sea ice thickness can be in part attributed to the amplified warming climate in north latitudes. Besides, we figure out that strongly anomalous southerly summer surface winds may play an important role in prompting the thickness decline in perennial ice zone through transporting heat deposited in open water(primarily via albedo feedback) in Eurasian sector deep into a broader sea ice regime in central Arctic Ocean. This heat source is responsible for enhanced ice bottom melting, leading to further reduction in ice thickness.     

一种考虑波动效应的拟动力地震边坡稳定性分析方法

考虑地震波在坡体内的传播特征,基于拟动力法,结合传统静力边坡稳定性分析极限平衡法(瑞典条分法),推导了边坡地震力公式和地震边坡稳定性安全系数公式。在此基础上,借助MATLAB软件开发了最危险滑面搜索和安全系数求解程序,实现了一种考虑波动效应的拟动力地震边坡稳定性分析方法。通过探讨地震动特性对地震边坡稳定性的影响,得到了地震边坡稳定性安全系数随地震动参数的变化规律。对于既定边坡,其安全系数随地震波初始相位呈现周期性波动变化,存在最小安全系数;并且此安全系数随地震系数和地震波波长与边坡坡高比的增大而减小。此外,从波动理论角度揭示了拟动力法与拟静力法的区别与联系,给出了两类方法的适用范围:当地震波波长与边坡坡高比大于10时,两类方法所得结果基本一致,均适用;而当地震波波长与边坡坡高比小于10时,拟静力法所得结果较拟动力法相对保守,仅拟动力法适用。     

黄、渤海断面及海洋站的盐度分布特征与变化趋势

采用经验正交函数(EOF)分解、超前滞后相关分析等方法,分析了36°N断面、大连—成山头断面和渤海中部断面盐度的空间分布特征和时间变化特征,讨论了环黄、渤海海洋站之间盐度的关系。结果表明,36°N断面、大连—成山头断面和渤海中部断面盐度的整体趋势都是升高,黄河流量的减小是造成渤海盐度升高的重要原因。黄海千里岩站1960～2000年间的盐度整体趋势也是升高,年变化率为0.01/a,造成盐度升高的主要原因是降水的减少,并且其短期震荡可能和ElNio有关,长期变化则与太平洋年代际震荡(PDO)有关。此外,千里岩站和其他海洋站之间的盐度有较好的正相关关系,只是在时间上存在着1～3个月的超前。对黄、渤海盐度长期变化的系统分析表明,近海盐度可能受到外洋的影响,有助于加深对中国近海环境演变的认识。