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Following previous studies of the rainfall forecast in Shenzhen owing to landfalling tropical cyclones(TCs), a nonparametric statistical scheme based on the classification of the landfalling TCs is applied to analyze and forecast the rainfall induced by landfalling TCs in the coastal area of Guangdong province, China. All the TCs landfalling with the distance less than 700 kilometers to the 8 coastal stations in Guangdong province during 1950—2013 are categorized according to their landfalling position and intensity. The daily rainfall records of all the 8 meteorological stations are obtained and analyzed. The maximum daily rainfall and the maximum 3 days' accumulated rainfall at the 8 coastal stations induced by each category of TCs during the TC landfall period(a couple of days before and after TC landfalling time) from 1950 to 2013 are computed by the percentile estimation and illustrated by boxplots. These boxplots can be used to estimate the rainfall induced by landfalling TC of the same category in the future. The statistical boxplot scheme is further coupled with the model outputs from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts(ECMWF) to predict the rainfall induced by landfalling TCs along the coastal area. The TCs landfalling in south China from 2014 to 2017 and the corresponding rainfall at the 8 stations area are used to evaluate the performance of these boxplots and coupled boxplots schemes. Results show that the statistical boxplots scheme and coupled boxplots scheme can perform better than ECMWF model in the operational rainfall forecast along the coastal area in south China. 相似文献
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QuikSCAT散射计矢量风统计特征及南海大风遥感分析 总被引:18,自引:5,他引:18
主要分析了QuikSCAT散射计矢量风资料的统计特征,并利用该资料分析了南海大风频数的月变化、空间分布特征以及南海各月风场的空间分布特征.结果显示QuikSCAT矢量风在南海具有可信性;利用散射计风场资料分析发现在南海主要盛行两种风,即冬季东北风和夏季西南风,东北风最大中心在巴士海峡、台湾海峡;南海中南部存在东北季风的次大中心和西南季风的极大中心. 相似文献
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广东省登陆热带气旋活动异常成因分析 总被引:43,自引:26,他引:43
利用1970~2001年热带气旋年鉴资料,对32年来西太平洋热带气旋登陆我国的频率、位置、维持、衰减、变性、加强及消亡等进行统计分析,揭示热带气旋登陆活动的一些事实和特征。研究表明:在我国沿海不同地区(不包括岛屿)登陆的热带气旋,其陆上维持时间明显不同,从广西至浙江,维持时间向北增加;热带气旋登陆后的明显衰减主要发生在登陆后12小时内,登陆时越强的热带气旋,衰减得越厉害;热带气旋在我国陆上消失的位置最北是黑龙江、最西可至云南,广西是登陆我国热带气旋消失数最多的地区。 相似文献
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基于站点观测数据的气温空间化方法评述 总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1
基于统计学的插值方法是地理学、生态学领域研究气温空间化的主要方法之一,对获取精细化气温数据进行生态模拟具有重要意义。结合国内外气温空间插值的主要研究成果,对常用气温空间化方法进行了归纳、对比,探讨各种方法的适用性和不足之处,从而为涉及气温空间化的具体研究提供一定的参考,并探讨了各类方法优化的方向。不同方法的对比分析结果表明:各种气温空间化方法各有所长,在具体的应用中都取得过较好的效果,但并不存在普适性的方法,在实际应用时必须针对研究区域具体的地理特征进行方法适用性验证或对各类方法中的具体参数进行改进,才能实现区域气温的空间最优化模拟。根据气温场的物理分布特征,结合GIS技术,考虑地形等更多的相关因子以提高气温分布微观细节的模拟精度是未来重要的发展趋势。 相似文献
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In this paper,the observational data from Marine and Meteorological Observation Platform(MMOP)at Bohe,Maoming and buoys located in Shanwei and Maoming are used to study the characteristics of air-sea temperature and specific humidity difference and the relationship between wind and wave with the tropical cyclones over the South China Sea(SCS).The heat and momentum fluxes from eddy covariance measurement(EC)are compared with these fluxes calculated by the COARE 3.0 algorithm for Typhoon Koppu.The results show that at the developing and weakening stages of Koppu,both these differences between the sea surface and the near-surface atmosphere from the MMOP are negative,and data from the buoys also indicate that the differences are negative between the sea surface and near-surface atmosphere on the right rear portion of tropical cyclones(TCs)Molave and Chanthu.However,the differences are positive on the left front portion of Molave and Chanthu.These positive differences suggest that the heat flux is transferred from the ocean to the atmosphere,thus intensifying and maintaining the two TCs.The negative differences indicate that the ocean removes heat fluxes from the atmosphere,thus weakening the TCs.The wind-wave curves of TCs Molave and Chanthu show that significant wave height increases linearly with 2-min wind speed at 10-m height when the wind speed is less than 25 m/s,but when the wind speed is greater than 25 m/s,the significant wave height increases slightly with the wind speed.By comparing the observed sensible heat,latent heat,and friction velocity from EC with these variables from COARE 3.0 algorithm,a great bias between the observed and calculated sensible heat and latent heat fluxes is revealed,and the observed friction velocity is found to be almost the same as the calculated friction velocity. 相似文献
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华南近海两浮标点的波浪特征分析 总被引:2,自引:0,他引:2
基于汕尾和茂名海域2个近岸浮标连续1年的风、浪观测数据,分析了有效波高等参量的月统计特征,并检验了多种风-浪经验关系.统计显示:2个浮标点的波浪有共同特征,如波高都具有明显的冬半年与夏半年特征.冬半年浪较大,其中茂名点有效波高中值在1.3~2m之间,汕尾点有效波高中值在1~1.5m之间;夏半年浪较小,两浮标点有效波高均在1 m以下.2点的波浪也存在差异,如汕尾点波浪在9月份至次年3月份呈冬半年特征,而茂名点则从10月份至次年3月份呈冬半年特征;汕尾点波向呈向岸特征,而茂名点则无此特征.风-浪经验关系检验结果显示,不同经验关系的集合预报结果可较好地与实测值吻合,并分析了产生离群值的因素. 相似文献
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运用1980-2002年5-8月GMSTBB候平均资料,经过统计分析得到:南海和东亚候夏季风活动指数定义为候平均TBB≤273K;其强度分为3级,即弱季风为268K〈TBB≤273K,一般季风为263K〈TBB≤268K,强季风为TBB≤263K。与此同时,还给出了运用TBB候距平帮助判识季风强度的分析方法。运用该季风指数,统计分析了上述各年季风初始爆发日期和各年各月季风活动情况。另外,还对比分析了1998年长江中下游地区暴雨和1994年华南暴雨2个典型暴雨灾害年季风活动,展示了候季风活动与暴雨期间各暴雨过程之间的密切关系。 相似文献