全球不同纬度带平均有效位能的季节急变

利用1980～1988年ECMWF的资料，计算了对流层500 hPa、300 hPa和平流层100 hPa逐日和月平均的纬向平均有效位能（PZ），分析其季节过渡，比较不同纬度带的季节性急变。结果表明，在4月和10月附近，各纬度带上均可出现PZ的急变。而且用逐日资料还可分析出6月急变。在北半球对流层高层（100 hPa）PZ的季节性急变不如低层（500 hPa）明显，而在南半球PZ的季节性急变与北半球相反，高层比低层明显。     

Rapid cooling and exhumation of eclogitic rocks from the Great Caucasus, Russia

Diffusion modelling of growth-zoned garnet is used in combination with standard geothermometric and geobarometric techniques to estimate cooling and denudation rates from the mafic eclogites of the Red Cliff area, Great Caucasus, Russia. Euhedral garnet porphyroblasts exhibit different degrees of prograde growth zoning depending on the size of the grain (100 μm to several mm in diameter). Zoning patterns are mainly expressed in terms of Fe–Mg exchange, with 100*Mg/(Mg+Fe) increasing from 18–20 to 33–37 from core to rim. Geothermobarometry yields conditions of 680±40 °C and a minimum of 1.6±0.2 GPa and of 660±40 °C and 0.8±0.2 GPa for the high-pressure and retrograde stages of equilibration, respectively. A temperature of 600±40 °C has been recorded for the late-stage metamorphic overprint in the mica schists surrounding the eclogites. Relaxation of garnet zoning profiles was modelled for three different hypothetical P–T –t trajectories, all with an initial temperature of 680 °C and a pressure change of 0.8 GPa. The first two trajectories involve decompression associated with regular cooling down to 660 °C (near isothermal) and 600 °C. The third path is a two-step trajectory comprising near-isobaric cooling down to 600 °C followed by isothermal decompression to 0.8 GPa. These P–T trajectories cover as wide a range of pressure and temperature changes endured by the rocks as possible, thus representing extreme cases for calculating cooling and exhumation rates. Calculations indicate that the zoning pattern of the smallest garnet (i.e. garnet for which the zoning is most easily eliminated during post-growth processes) along the different paths can be preserved for the following average exhumation and cooling rates: path 1, 143 mm a^?1 and 102 °C Ma^?1; path 2, 60 mm a^?1 and 171 °C Ma^?1; path 3, 11–30 mm a^?1 and 200–400 °C Ma^?1. These results are discussed in light of theoretical P–T–t paths extracted from thermal models of regions of thickened crust, and from analogue models of accretionary wedge and continental lithosphere subduction.     

城市化对北京平均气温的影响

本文利用北京（观象台）及周围几个气象台站月平均气温资料，滑动平均后，采用主成分分析方法，再进行倾向性分析，探讨了北京城市化对气平均气温的影响，估算对北京（观象台）气温记录的影响约为０．２１℃／３３ａ推断市中心二环路以内强烈地影响。     

外资：发展中国家城市化的新动力：珠江三角洲个案研究

城市化的研究历来都偏重于内力的营造，例如区域经济的不同发展步伐，乡村－市的人口流动，政府的地区性经济政策以及新城市的建设等。在资本、人力、技术和市场走向“全球化”的情况下，新的国际分工自１９８０年以来已成为一些发展中国家和地区的人口及经济活动急剧增长与集中的主要动力。本文对这一类型城市化的特点和空间形态作出了概括性的描述。     

祁连山地区1310年以来湿润指数及其年际变幅的变化与突变分析

本文通过用树木年轮资料重建的祁连山地区5～7月份1310年以来的湿润指数序列，建立了一个反映该地区湿润指数年际变幅序列，对这两个序列分别进行了等级分类和干湿、强弱的时段分析，并用最大熵谱分析法对这两个序列的不同时段分别进行了周期分析。采用HK突变检验方法对这两个序列分别进行了突变分析，发现祁连山地区的湿润指数及其年际变幅存在明显的突变年份。     

美国"阳光带"的崛起对中国西部城市化战略的启示

美国西部开发以城市化为先导，中国西部大开发本质上也是西部城市化。西部大开发战略应以城市为中心组织与落实。本文通过透视美国“阳光带”城市崛起的历史，尤其是产业集群的成功经验，提出中国西部城市化战略实施中应将培育地方产业集群作为推动城市化的重要战略方式和地方重要的公共政策工具。     

Water Quality Impacts of Climate and Land Use Changes in Southeastern Pennsylvania*

This study investigates potential changes in nitrogen and phosphorus loads under a warmer and wetter climate, urban growth, and combined changes in the Conestoga River Basin and its five subbasins in southeastern Pennsylvania. A GIS‐based hydrochemical model was employed for assessing the sensitivity of the basins to the projected changes in 2030. Under the HadCM2 climate change scenario, mean annual nitrogen and phosphorus loads are expected to increase, with great increases in spring but slight decreases in fall primarily because of changes in monthly precipitation. When climate change and urbanization occur concurrently, mean annual nitrogen loads further increase by 50% in the most urbanizing subbasin. Point source nitrogen control could mitigate negative effects of climate and land use changes, reducing mean annual nitrogen loads to the contemporary baseline level.     

相干变化指数法在震害快速评估中的应用

合成孔径雷达(SAR)具有全天候全天时的特点,为快速展开地震救援,评估震害损失提供了重要的数据支持。本文基于汶川震中东南平原地区的ENVISATASAR影像,利用相位干涉方法处理得到相干变化指数图像,对6个评估区域的像元相干变化指数进行统计分析,以相干变化指数平均值作为区分建筑物基本完好与损毁的阈值,并与实地调查结果相比,精度基本达到70%。验证干涉相干变化指数法对震害快速评估有效的同时,也为震区提供震害救援的依据。     

Integrating cellular automata,artificial neural network,and fuzzy set theory to simulate threatened orchards: application to Maragheh,Iran

Urbanization processes challenge the growth of orchards in many cities in Iran. In Maragheh, orchards are crucial ecological, economical, and tourist sources. To explore orchards threatened by urban expansion, this study first aims to develop a new model by coupling cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural network with fuzzy set theory (CA–ANN–Fuzzy). While fuzzy set theory captures the uncertainty associated with transition rules, the ANN considers spatial and temporal nonlinearities of the driving forces underlying the urban growth processes. Second, the CA–ANN–Fuzzy model is compared with two existing approaches, namely a basic CA and a CA coupled with an ANN (CA–ANN). Third, we quantify the amount of orchard loss during the last three decades as well as for the upcoming years up to 2025. Results show that CA–ANN–Fuzzy with 83% kappa coefficient performs significantly better than conventional CA (with 51% kappa coefficient) and CA–ANN (with 79% kappa coefficient) models in simulating orchard loss. The historical data shows a considerable loss of 26% during the last three decades, while the CA–ANN–Fuzzy simulation reveals a considerable future loss of 7% of Maragheh’s orchards in 2025 due to urbanization. These areas require special attention and must be protected by the local government and decision-makers.     

南水北调中线突发水污染事件的快速预测

依据南水北调中线干渠资料,开展了正常输水情况下串联明渠内可溶污染物浓度分布规律数值模拟研究。采用数值模拟、数学归纳和统计分析方法,提出表征污染物输移扩散特征的峰值输移距离、污染带长度和峰值浓度的快速预测公式;通过示范工程验证了快速预测公式的可行性。结果表明:①串联明渠内,峰值输移距离随渠道流速减小而减小,并且污染带长度增加值随明渠内流速减小而减小,但是峰值浓度随明渠流速减小而增加;②快速预测公式计算结果与现场试验实测结果的误差均不到15%,证明了快速预测公式的合理性和可行性。这些研究结果为南水北调中线工程突发可溶性水污染事件应急预警方案的制定提供了科学依据。