The down-faulted basin zone and high disaster risk zone in Shanxi Province, China

Introduction Since 1920s, with increasing awareness of disaster prevention and reduction in various as-pects and gradually deepened development of International Decade for Natural Disaster Reduction (IDNDR) activities in China, the role and position of disaster risk analysis and risk management work are increasingly prominent. In the final report of the IDNDR activities in 1999, the Science and Technology Committee of IDNDR had presented 5 challenge fields, which the international dis…     

区域水资源与社会经济协调程度评价研究

基于陈守煜多级多目标模糊模式识别模型，提出了区域水资源与社会经济协调程度评价模型。该模型利用级别特征值解决了多层多级多目标系统区域水资源与社会经济协调程度的评价，给出了多个目标隶属函数的计算公式。经分析比较，方法可行，结果合理。     

Wildlife management and land reform in southeastern Zimbabwe: a compatible pairing or a contradiction in terms?

This paper examines the melding of two discourses in southeastern Zimbabwe: land reform and wildlife management. The former seeks to redistribute large, ‘under-utilized’ landholdings to smallholders whilst the latter needs extensive land holdings to be viable. These two discourses are rooted in very different models of development. The land reform exercise emphasizes direct redistribution, equity and land for crops; whilst the wildlife management discourse tends to stress maximizing foreign exchange earnings, encouraging public-private partnerships and trickle down. Yet there has been a recent flurry of interest in the development of ‘wildlife models’ for land reform which would combine the two. This paper investigates whether the competing discourses about land for smallholders and wildlife-based land reform are compatible or can be successfully reconciled. It traces the ways they have come together in Zimbabwe’s southeast lowveld and examines the ‘science’ and politics underlying their melding. Finally it explores the potential implications for rural people’s livelihoods of this development. It concludes that land reform and wildlife management can be reconciled, but probably not in a particularly equitable way: it is more likely to provide an opening for an equitable land reform agenda to be usurped by local and non-local elites with wildlife interests.     

Proposal of a National Mitigation Strategy Against Earthquakes in Turkey

While laboratory and analytical studies can provide valuable information about earthquake hazard mitigation, the most effective educator is the impact of a full-scale earthquake on a full-scale city. The recent earthquakes in Turkey showed that the governmental as well as individual attitudes towards earthquakes did not represent proportionate responses to the risk levels concerned. Turkey had weaknesses in preparing, planning, mitigating and responding to disasters in spite of the known seismic vulnerability of the country. Many steps have been taken after 1999 earthquakes in Turkey, however, the preparations largely concentrate on the response and recovery phases and a fundamental step to reform the current disaster management system and steps to rehabilitate the vulnerable building stock has not been undertaken until today. This would involve changing the present laws and regulations and de-centralising the disaster management system. The aim of this paper is to propose a national mitigation strategy for Turkey for a time-frame of 10 years. The model proposed is a very comprehensive model for earthquake risk reduction in Turkey and within this context, the legislative and technical aspects of mitigation will be discussed in detail. Strategies for mitigating and retrofitting the existing building stock will also be proposed.     

Meteorological Office, Pune-411 005

Natural disasters like floods, tornadoes, tropicalcyclones, heat and cold wavewreak havoc and cause tremendous loss ofproperty all over the world. Most ofthe natural disasters are either dueto weather or are triggered due toweather related processes.Extreme weather events claimed thousands oflives and caused damage on vastscale. Recent super cyclone which affectedOrissa in 1999, Bangladesh cyclone of1970 and Hurricane Andrew in 1992 areexamples of some of the more damagingtropical cyclones which affected developingas well as the developed world. Heatand cold waves are also extreme events,which cause enormous losses in terms oflives lost and human discomfort and ailmentsarising out of them. The heat waveof 1995 and 1998 are still fresh in the mindof the Indian public. The estimated lossof human lives due to heat wave in 1998 was morethan 15,000. Economic losses asa result of these disasters and in particular inassociation with tropical cyclones haveincreased enormously over the last three decades.During 1961–1991, total loss oflives from drought alone was 1,333,728 overthe whole world. In terms of economiclosses, there is 8–10 fold increase from thebase figure of 1960. The socio-economicimpact of natural disaster is complex dependingupon the vulnerability of the placeand mitigation strategies that are put in place.Meteorology plays a crucial role in forewarningpeople about the severe/extremeweather systems and a constant endeavour by themeteorological services worldover has gone a long way towards minimizing thelosses caused by natural disasters.The paper summarises the natural disasterstatistics over south Asia and the possibleprediction strategies for combating theirsocio-economic impacts.     

Origin of Natural Gas in Kekeya Field, Tarim Basin, China

This paper is mainly concentrated on the geochemical characteristics and origin of gas of Kekeya field in the Tarim basin, NW China. This study shows that Permian mudstone is the main source rock of oil and gas. Based on the carbon isotopes of C1--C4, the carbon isotope of gas in Kekeya field is a little heavier than that in the typical marine-derived gas. The relationship between carbon isotopes of methane and ethane is coincident with Faber equation of gas derived from organic matter Ⅰ/Ⅱ. The majority of gas maturity is estimated, based on the formula, at 1.8%-2.2% besides K2 and K18 wells. In addition, the gas derived from 0.9%-1.2% Ro source rocks may also bemixture. ^40Ar/^36Ar and ^3He/^4He ratios from the gas samples also support the mixing process. Moreover, the gas in this region is mainly generated from more mature source rocks although the low mature gas exists.     

黄河流域天然径流量突变性与周期性特征

突变性和周期性是水文时间序列的两个重要特征。黄河流域面积广阔，各区域水文水资源系统演变规律各不相同，它们的突变和周期变化及其形成的物理机制遍异，因此系统分析各区域水资源突变性和周期性特征及其影响机制具有重要意义。把黄河流域划分为15个区域，计算出各区域1951—1998年的年天然径流量系列。利用Mann-Kendall非参数检验方法检测黄河流域各区域年天然径流量的突变年份，结果表明各区域的突变年份不完全一致，主要在1953—1955年、1979—1983年、1991—1993年等发生了突变，这些突变与北半球气候突变具有一致性，且由于下垫面改变、人类活动等影响而复杂化。利用Morlet小波分析各区域年天然径流量的变化周期，发现主要存在3～4a、7～9a、11a的周期，形成这些周期的物理因子有太阳黑子、海—气相互作用和下垫面因素等。通过分析黄河流域主要产流区不同时段小波系数变化，发现20世纪80年代之后年径流量主要以短周期变化。     

中国公路自然区划的回顾与展望

1IntroductionHighway, as a kind of man-made structure, will become a part of the geographical environment and be impacted by all sorts of natural factors after it is finished. On the other hand, highway also brings some changes to the geographical environment. A highway often passes through different natural regions, so it must be adaptable to any geographical environments. On the basis of deep understanding of the geographical environment, service life and normal level of the highway can be e…     

祁连山区天然草原退化原因分析与可持续利用对策

天然草原是畜牧业发展的重要物质基础，由于缺乏有效的制度安排和技术创新，人类无节制的赢利活动加剧了草原退化，导致了西部生态环境的恶化。论文以祁连山区的肃南县为例，通过对天然草原退化现状的调查研究，剖析了祁连山区草原生态环境保护与经济发展之间的突出问题和草原退化的深层原因，提出了天然草原永续利用的对策。     

中国热带近百年气候波动与灾害

The temperature appeared rising trend during the 20th century in China's tropics.Two cooling stages and two warming stages in the process of climatic fluctuation can be recognized.After the 1980s the climate is the warmest which corresponds to the global change,but the warmest period is the 1940s in Kunming.The climate pattern mostly appears contemporaneity of warming and humidity,which is different from the situation of whole China.The natural disasters tend to be aggravated.The number of typhoons increased.Flood damages occurred frequently in the years of more typhoons.The number of droughts and cold damages increased.It was snowed in Guangzhou.There was frost in Haikou and Yaxian.Four years of heavy snow have been recorded in Kunming.