Disjunctive Kriging with Hard and Imprecise Data

This paper presents a methodology for assessing local probability distributions by disjunctive kriging when the available data set contains some imprecise measurements, like noisy or soft information or interval constraints. The basic idea consists in replacing the set of imprecise data by a set of pseudohard data simulated from their posterior distribution; an iterative algorithm based on the Gibbs sampler is proposed to achieve such a simulation step. The whole procedure is repeated many times and the final result is the average of the disjunctive kriging estimates computed from each simulated data set. Being data-independent, the kriging weights need to be calculated only once, which enables fast computing. The simulation procedure requires encoding each datum as a pre-posterior distribution and assuming a Markov property to allow the updating of pre-posterior distributions into posterior ones. Although it suffers some imperfections, disjunctive kriging turns out to be a much more flexible approach than conditional expectation, because of the vast class of models that allows its computation, namely isofactorial models.     

Mechanisms of physico-chemical interaction of mercury with river sediments from a gold mining region in Brazil: Relative mobility of mercury species

Mercury accumulation in the food chain, as a consequence of gold recovery in Brazil, has been an issue of concern. Reactions of Hg in the environment are quite complex, and can involve various Hg chemical species. Laboratory experiments were carried out on Hg⁰ solubility, Hg complexation and sorption on river sediments from a gold mining region in Brazil. The reactivity and the mobility of Hg species were considered. Results indicate that methyl mercury is more mobile than ionic mercury, and that the presence of humic acid enhances drastically the solubility of Hg⁰. The soluble complex formed has a relatively lower interaction at the sediment/water interface and is more prone to spread through the aquatic environment.     

Mobility of heavy metals as a function of pH of samples from an overbank sediment profile contaminated by mining activities

Parts of the flood plains north of the Harz Mountains are contaminated with heavy metals, such as Pb, Cu, Zn and Cd derived from mining, which has been carried out in the Harz Mts. since the Middle Ages. It is important to know the mobility of the heavy metals in these overbank sediments in order to estimate the danger to the environment arising from this source. This paper deals with the effect of pH on heavy-metal mobility, using a constant-pH method. The investigations were carried out on an overbank sediment profile near Salzgitter Bad, north of the Harz Mts. The mobility of the heavy metals in the overbank sediment profile is described as a function of pH and depth. Besides the mobile heavy-metal fraction at a certain pH, the buffering capacity of the sediment at this pH must be taken into consideration. The different layers of the overbank sediment profile show distinct differences in buffering capacity and a natural pH harrier could be identified in the upper part of the profile. Therefore, to avoid increasing heavy-metal mobility the natural layering of the overbank sediment profile should not be disturbed. Two different kinds of desorption experiments at constant pH are also discussed, as well as the conversion of the heavy-metal species in the ore minerals into the species in the sediment.     

A mixed finite element method for Hele-Shaw cell equations

A new numerical method to solve the system of equations describing two phase flow in a Hele-Shaw cell is presented. It combines a mixed finite element method, the method of subtraction of the singularity and a front tracking grid in a single computational strategy. This choice of discretization techniques is well motivated by the difficulties present in the system of equations and the physics of the problem. The new method was tested against analytical solutions and also by solving the Saffman–Taylor viscous fingering problem for finite and infinite mobility ratios. In both cases convergence under mesh refinement is achieved for the fingers developed from an initial sinusoidal interface. Finger splitting is observed for low values of the surface tension and high mobility ratio. Different explanations, based in our results, are provided for this phenomenon. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Constraints of Housing Age and Migration on Residential Mobility

This paper investigates the role of housing age in constraining residential mobility, measured as the percent of households that have moved into their homes in the past 15 months. The leading explanation for why mobility rates differ so much among regions of the United States has been the overall level of growth. The present analysis shows that the growth effect operates through both the newness of population (migration) and the newness of housing available for occupancy by all local residents. The posited explanation for this housing age effect is that progressively older units contain increasingly settled occupants, yielding fewer opportunities for in-movers in areas with older housing. It is empirically demonstrated that households in older housing have lower likelihood of recent mobility even after controlling for age, tenure, migration status, and state location of residence. The analysis reveals the temporal interdependency of mobility, migration, person age, and housing age.     

动态指标层析法介绍

参数值是影响模拟结果正确可信的重要因素。介绍了一、二维模拟中参数值确定的动态指标层析法，以及作为其发展基础的由多种热指标确定古充的反演方法，简述了动态指标和热指标相结合的确定参数值层析方法。     

Quantitative Tectonic Markers of Large Coastal Earthquakes in Fujian, Guangdong, Taiwan and Hainan——with a Discussion of Qualitative Indicators

This paper expounds the quantitative tectonic indicators and some qualitative indicators of large earthquakes in the coast areas of Fujian, Guangdong, Taiwan and Hainan. The main quantitative indicators include uplift amplitude of the Moho, Quaternary and Late Holocene coasts. The paper also gives a brief account of the research method on quantitative indicators of surface uplifted zones. Taiwan is a famous neotectonic zone and an area of large earthquakes in the world. There is only one large-earthquake area in each of Fujian, Guangdong and Hainan Provinces. Along the coast large earthquake areas there are certainly many remains of crustal activity. Among these remains, coast activity, taking the sea level as the accurate marker horizon, can determine not only the amplitude of coastal elevation and subsidence in a certain period, but also the cycle and rate of positive or negative movements.     

Type-specific and indicator taxa of phytoplankton as a quality criterion for assessing the ecological status of Finnish boreal lakes

Key issues in the implementation of the Water Framework Directive are classification of lakes using biological quality parameters and type-specific reference conditions. This work is one of three studies considering different metrics of phytoplankton in the classification of ecological status. Phytoplankton was studied in a total of 55 Finnish boreal lakes, including 32 reference lakes. We tested the suitability of taxonomic composition and abundance of phytoplankton groups for biological classification. We also preliminarily determined the type-specific taxa for the studied lakes. The type-specific taxa for reference conditions are coincidently the indicator species/taxa for high ecological status. Interestingly, some taxa type-specific for impacted oligo-humic lakes proved to be the type-specific taxa for humic reference lakes. The pressure of human impact was observed not only as increase of biomass but also as changes in the species composition. The phytoplankton composition indicated the ecological status of impacted lakes moderately well. There was some variation in the indications given by different algal groups, probably due to the preliminary class boundaries used. However, the preliminary combination of indicative parameters to estimate the ecological status of the studied impacted lakes was in general in accordance with earlier classification of water quality in Finnish lakes.     

大井锡多金属成矿地质特征及找矿方向探讨

内蒙古林西大井锡多金属矿是我国北方最大的锡多金属矿床，通过对其地质背景、成矿地质条件、富集规律、控矿因素的认识和分析，建立大井式的综合找矿标志，对指导矿区及其外围找矿，扩大矿产资源、发展地方经济，具有重要的意义。     

Indicator Simulation Accounting for Multiple-Point Statistics

Geostatistical simulation aims at reproducing the variability of the real underlying phenomena. When nonlinear features or large-range connectivity is present, the traditional variogram-based simulation approaches do not provide good reproduction of those features. Connectivity of high and low values is often critical for grades in a mineral deposit. Multiple-point statistics can help to characterize these features. The use of multiple-point statistics in geostatistical simulation was proposed more than 10 years ago, on the basis of the use of training images to extract the statistics. This paper proposes the use of multiple-point statistics extracted from actual data. A method is developed to simulate continuous variables. The indicator kriging probabilities used in sequential indicator simulation are modified by probabilities extracted from multiple-point configurations. The correction is done under the assumption of conditional independence. The practical implementation of the method is illustrated with data from a porphyry copper mine.