一次“高影响天气”的弱降雪过程的数值研究

该文对2001年12月7日下午北京的一次弱降雪天气过程进行了诊断分析和数值模拟研究。诊断结果表明:北京地区由于受500 hPa小槽东移及850 hPa东移小高压后部带来的来自东海和南海的偏南暖湿气流共同影响，造成降雪。数值模拟结果显示:MM5模式对这次降雪过程具有较好的模拟能力，不仅模拟出了北京地区的降雪量，而且对这次过程大尺度背景场的演变、触发机制和水汽源有很好的表述。利用诊断分析和数值模拟结果，对这次弱降雪过程引起交通大阻塞的可能因素进行了探讨，说明建立城市预警系统的迫切性。     

A multidisciplinary multi-scale framework for assessing vulnerabilities to global change

Terrestrial ecosystems provide a number of vital services for people and society, such as food, fibre, water resources, carbon sequestration, and recreation. The future capability of ecosystems to provide these services is determined by changes in socio-economic factors, land use, atmospheric composition, and climate. Most impact assessments do not quantify the vulnerability of ecosystems and ecosystem services under such environmental change. They cannot answer important policy-relevant questions such as 'Which are the main regions or sectors that are most vulnerable to global change?’ 'How do the vulnerabilities of two regions compare?’ 'Which scenario is the least harmful for a sector?’This paper describes a new approach to vulnerability assessment developed by the Advanced Terrestrial Ecosystem Analysis and Modelling (ATEAM) project. Different ecosystem models, covering biodiversity, agriculture, forestry, hydrology, and carbon sequestration are fed with the same Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios based on the Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES). Each model gives insights into specific ecosystems, as in traditional impact assessments. Moreover, by integrating the results in a vulnerability assessment, the policy-relevant questions listed above can also be addressed. A statistically derived European environmental stratification forms a key element in the vulnerability assessment. By linking it to other quantitative environmental stratifications, comparisons can be made using data from different assessments and spatial scales.     

当代气候研究计划

就气候系统问题，国际上与气候及其变化有关的重要科学计划、尤其是气候变化及可预报性研究（CLIVAR）计划，作了简要介绍，同时还就气候预测问题作了讨论。     

近十年来我国气候变暖影响研究的若干进展

近年来，我国政府和科技界十分关注气候王馥棠变暖对我国经济发展可能影响的评估, 开展了许多重大项目和课题的研究。该文仅就气候变暖对我国自然植被、农业、森林、水资源、能源利用和区域海平面上升等领域影响评估研究的若干有意义的初步结果简要归纳和评述如下:取自不同GCM模型的未来气候变化情景下的影响评估模拟表明，我国的特征性自然植被类型将会发生明显的变化。同当前气候（1951~1980年）下的模拟分布相比，到2050年我国几乎所有地方的农业种植制度均将发生较大变化；气候变暖将导致复种指数增加和种植方式多样化，但降水与蒸散之间可能出现的负平衡和土壤水分胁迫的增加以及生育期的可能缩短，最终将导致我国主要作物的产量下降。气候变暖对我国水资源最明显的影响将会发生在黄淮海流域，这个区域的水资源供需短缺将大大提高。同时，气候变暖将改变我国室内取暖和降温的能源需求关系:北方冬季取暖的能源消耗将减少, 而南方夏季降温的能源消耗将会增加。海平面的上升将使我国三个主要沿海低洼脆弱区，即珠江三角洲、长江三角洲和黄河三角洲，面临部分遭受海水淹没的威胁。     

鄂西火烧坪地区岩溶生态环境系统及生态农业模式初探

通过对鄂西火烧坪地区的自然地理、地质构造、水文地质、土壤、植被及社会经济等方面的初步研究表明，在岩溶化作用十分强烈的岩溶山区，当气候、地形地貌、地质构造等条件匹配较好时，同样存在着一些极其有利于农业、林业发展的特殊生态环境。在这些地区，结合当地植物资源特点和市场需求，通过农作物类型的调整，能够在短时间内使当地摆脱贫穷的面貌。但在发展经济的同时必须特别关注当地土地资源相对缺乏、水资源时空分布不均、生态环境脆弱等不利因素，做到适度开发，稳步发展，才能从根本上实现小康目标。     

A methodology for the evaluation of long-term volcanic risk from pyroclastic flows in Campi Flegrei (Italy)

The volcanological history of Campi Flegrei suggests that the most frequent eruptions are characterized by the emplacement of pyroclastic flow and surge deposits erupted from different vents scattered over a 150-km² caldera. The evaluation of volcanic risk in volcanic fields is complex because of the lack of a central vent. To approach this problem, we subdivided the entire area of Campi Flegrei into a regular grid and evaluated the relative spatial probability of opening of vents based on geological, geophysical and geochemical data. We evaluated the volcanic risk caused by pyroclastic flows based on the formula proposed by UNESCO (1972), R=H×V×Va, where H is the hazard, V is the vulnerability and Va is the value of the elements at risk. The product H×V was obtained by performing simulations of type eruptions centered in each cell of the grid. The simulation is based on the energy cone scheme proposed by Sheridan and Malin [J. Volcanol. Geotherm. Res. 17 (1983) 187–202], hypothesizing a column collapse height of 100 m for eruptions of VEI=3 and 300 m for eruptions of VEI=4 with a slope angle of 6°. Each simulation has been given the relative probability value associated with the corresponding cell. We made use of the GIS software ArcView 3.2 to evaluate the intersection between the energy cone and the topography. The superposition of the areas invaded by pyroclastic flows (124 simulations for VEI=3 and 37 for VEI=4) was used to obtain the relative hazard map of the area. The relative volcanic risk map is obtained by superimposing the urbanization maps.     

Sediment yield and storage variations in the Négron River catchment (south western Parisian Basin,France) during the Holocene period

In the Négron River catchment area (162 km²), surface‐sediment stores are composed of periglacial calcareous ‘grèze’ (5 × 10⁶ t) and loess (21 × 10⁶ t), and Holocene alluvium (12·6 × 10⁶ t), peat (0·6 × 10⁶ t) and colluvium (18·5 × 10⁶ t). Seventy‐five per cent of the Holocene sediments is stored along the thalwegs. Present net sediment yield, calculated from solid discharge at the Négron outlet, is low (0·6 t km^?2 a^?1) due to the dominance of carbonate rocks in the catchment. Mean sediment yield during the Holocene period is 7·0 t km^?2 a^?1 from alluvium stores and 7·6 t km^?2 a^?1 from colluvium stores. Thus, the gross sediment yield during the Holocene period is about 18·7 t km^?2 a^?1 and the sediment delivery ratio 3 per cent. The yield considerably varies from one sub‐basin to another (3·9 to 24·5 t km^?2 a^?1) according to lithology: about 25 per cent and 50 per cent of initial stores of periglacial grèze and loess respectively were reworked during the Holocene period. Sediment yield has increased by a factor of 6 in the last 1000 years, due to the development of agriculture. The very high rate of sediment storage on the slope during that period (88 per cent of the yield) can be accounted for by the formation of cultivation steps (‘rideaux’). It is predicted that the current destruction of these steps will result in a sediment wave reaching the valley floors in the coming decades. Subboreal and Subatlantic sediments and pollen assemblages in the Taligny marsh, where one‐third of the alluvium is stored, show the predominant influence of human activity during these periods in the Négron catchment. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

三维地震数据离散光滑插值的共轭梯度法

针对三维地震数据插值,提出采用Laplacian算子进行光滑约束的插值方法,并借鉴Mallet研究的离散光滑插值思路,采用预条件共轭梯度法,直接生成网格节点上的值,从而回避寻求满足插值方程的函数. 为了实现其中Laplacian算子的快速求逆,文中引入Claerbout螺旋坐标系谱因式分解理论. 在螺旋坐标系下,Laplacian算子的表示矩阵具有Toeplitz结构,其快速求逆可由谱法LU分解实现. 基于二维离散光滑插值,文中还给出共轭梯度法与NMO相结合的沿时间切片逐层处理的离散光滑插值流程. 最后,应用该方法对模型数据和实际三维地震数据进行了处理.     

Water availability for the greening of Kuwait

Water resources for agricultural development and landscape enhancement in Kuwait are very scarce; the quality is saline (brackish), and the soil texture is sandy, incapable of holding nutrients and moisture. Most of the rainfall in Kuwait either evaporates due to the high temperatures or percolates through the soil. The rainfall is not sufficient to recharge the underground water supply. A variety of alternative water sources have been studied, including seawater desalination and wastewater treatment. Wastewater treatment proved to be convenient due to the relatively low salinity detected in the treated water. Furthermore, the amount of wastewater is expected to increase as more residential areas are connected to the sewage system as the population increases.

The development of a greenery plan for Kuwait requires intensive water management. This goal can be achieved through manpower training in landscape development, selection of plants tolerant to arid environments, usage of appropriate irrigation and drainage systems, promotion of greenery programs within public and the governmental agencies for their direct participation in urban area beautification, and extension of wastewater treatment techniques.     

2001年昆仑山口8.1级巨震后中国大陆、云南地震趋势研究

分析研究了2001年11月14日昆仑山口8．1级巨震对中国大陆云南未来几年地震趋势的影响，指出巨震后6年大陆可能仍然处于地震活跃期，其间大陆西部发生7．0级以上大震可能性较大；受2000－2001年欧亚带东南段大震活动过程及巨震调整影响，未来1－3年云南省可能进入新的活跃期，6．5级以上强震危险性增加。