农作物成熟、收获动态预报和农产品交售、收购资金计划调度初探

在具体分析农作物成熟，收获和农产品交售，收购过程的基础上，根据历年农产品收购进度资料，初步探讨了农作物成熟，收获动态预报和农产品交售，收购之间的动态变化关系，建立了农作物成熟，收获动态预报模型，为农产品交售，收购资金合理计划，调度提供了科学依据。     

江苏省1998年夏熟作物减产气象条件分析

江苏省１９９８年夏熟作物严重减产,导致减产的主要原因是气候异常,期间出现了罕见的全省性、全程性的涝渍害及冻、病等灾害,危害程度高,不可抗拒。作者对江苏省１９９８年夏熟作物减产的气象条件作出分析。     

Quickflow response to forest harvesting and recovery in a northern hardwood forest landscape

Forest harvesting often increases catchment quickflow (QF, water delivered rapidly to the stream channel), a metric of high‐flow events controlling a catchment's solute and sediment export. Nevertheless, our understanding of QF responses to various silvicultural strategies (e.g., clearcutting, selection harvest, and shelterwood harvest) is incomplete. We present a 31‐year examination of QF delivery from treatment (clearcut, selection harvest, and shelterwood harvest) and control catchments in a deciduous forest landscape in central Ontario, Canada. Growing season root‐zone storage capacity was estimated using a water balance approach to evaluate temporal changes in QF response to precipitation (P) for pretreatment and posttreatment periods. Threshold relationships between QF and P were assessed for control and treatment catchments for pretreatment and posttreatment periods using piecewise regression. Root‐zone storage capacity demarcated shifts in the hydrologic regime arising from forest harvesting and subsequent regeneration. This was particularly pronounced for clearcutting where postharvest decline in root‐zone storage capacity was followed by a rise to preharvest values. Similar pretreatment threshold relationships between QF and P, and near‐identical P thresholds for producing significant QF, reflected similar soil and overburden depths in the catchments. Harvesting effects were indicated by increases in QF/P ratios for relative small P and the number of P events that generated QF, thus changing treatment QF vs. P threshold relationships. Prior to harvesting there was no significant increase in QF with P below a threshold P of 35–45 mm; however, there was a significant QF vs. P relationship below this threshold for all treatments postharvest. Clearcutting increased the number of QF events for the entire postharvest period and the first 9‐year postharvest compared to the other treatments; nevertheless, evidence for intertreatment differences in total QF depth delivered from the catchments during the growing season was inconclusive. Our work suggests that changes in threshold relationships between QF and P, coupled with knowledge of the physical processes underlying them, are useful when evaluating hydrologic responses to forest harvesting.     

Amount and reactivity of dissolved organic matter export are affected by land cover change from old-growth to second-growth forests in headwater ecosystems

Headwater forest ecosystems of the western USA generate a large portion of the dissolved organic matter (DOM) transported in streams across North America. Land cover changes that alter forest structure and species composition affect the quantity and composition of DOM transferred to aquatic ecosystems. Clear-cut harvesting affects ~1% of the forest area of North America annually, leaving most western forests in varying stages of regrowth and the total area of old-growth forest is decreasing. The consequences of this widespread management practice on watershed carbon cycling remain unknown. We investigated the role of land cover change, because of clear-cut harvesting, from mixed-species old-growth to lodgepole pine-dominated second-growth forest on the character and reactivity of hillslope DOM exports. We evaluated inputs of DOM from litter leachates and export of DOM collected at the base of trenched hillslopes during a 3-year period (2016–2018) at the Fraser Experimental Forest in north-central Colorado, USA. Dissolved organic carbon and total dissolved nitrogen were higher in lateral subsurface flow draining old- versus second-growth forest. Fluorescence spectroscopy showed that the DOM exported from the old-growth forest was more heterogeneous and aromatic and that proteinaceous, microbially processed DOM components were more prevalent in the second-growth forest. Biological oxygen demand assays revealed much lower microbial metabolism of DOM in litter leachate and subsurface exports from the old-growth forest relative to second growth. Old-growth and second-growth forests are co-mingled in managed ecosystems, and our findings demonstrate that land cover change from a mixture of conifer species to lodgepole pine dominance influences DOM inputs that can increase the reactivity of DOM transferred from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems.     

采伐剩余物管理方式对人工林土壤黑碳和黑氮的影响

黑碳（Black carbon,BC）是土壤惰性碳库的重要组成部分,在土壤碳循环中发挥着关键作用,而黑氮（Black nitrogen,BN）同样对碳封存具有重要作用。本研究以15年生杉木人工林为对象,采用化学氧化法研究2种采伐剩余物管理方式（炼山和保留采伐剩余物）对杉木人工林表层土壤（0~10 cm）BC和BN含量及储量的影响。结果表明,5次采样年份,炼山和保留采伐剩余物的BC平均含量分别为2.99~3.70 g/kg和3.52~4.36 g/kg,储量分别为3.24 t/hm^2和3.87 t/hm^2;炼山和保留采伐剩余物的BN平均含量均为0.12 g/kg,储量分别为0.12 t/hm2和0.11 t/hm^2。方差分析表明,2种采伐剩余物管理方式下的土壤BC和BN含量以及储量年际差异均不显著（P〉0.05）。由此可见,采伐剩余物管理方式对杉木人工林土壤BC和BN的长期效应并不显著。     

全国晚稻气候年景评价方法研究

通过对晚稻产量和气象资料的处理，划分出全国晚稻主产区的丰歉年型及其主要气象要素的特征等级。在不同区域气候年景特征等级分析的基础上，建立了晚稻气候年景综合评价模型，并在2001年农业气象业务服务中的丰歉年型评价中取得了较好的效果。