利用GIS校正自动计产数据中的收割面积误差

采样周期内实际收割面积计算误差造成的产量数据误差是联合收割机计产数据中的一种常见误差。为了消除由收割面积造成的产量数据误差,利用产量数据中产量点的精确GPS位置信息,并基于当前产量点与相邻产量点之间的时序关系和空间拓扑关系,通过GIS的缓冲区分析和叠加分析确定当前产量点的实际收割小区,最后通过谷物流量和实际收割面积计算产量点的实际产量。实验结果表明：经过误差校正,收割面积的计算误差由校正前的10％左右降低到1％以内,平均产量提高8％左右,同时该方法也可以检测出没有产量点的区域。     

河南省高效农业耕作制生产力特征及资源利用研究

从开展河南农业高效利用研究的必要性及更合理利用气候资源的角度出发,提出间作套种的三熟制高效农业资源利用模式。对三熟制与二熟制的气候资源利用、组分产量和产量结构进行对比,分析经济效益和生态效益。结果表明,三熟制种植模式明显优于传统的二熟制种植方式,是符合当前河南省农业向高效优质可持续发展的必然趋势     

1960年以来太湖水生植被演变

太湖的富营养化污染日益严重,针对太湖水生植被的研究工作非常重要,然而全面的太湖水生植被调查已经有将近二十年未见报道.基于2014年夏季全湖水生植被调查结果,结合历史资料,比较分析1960年以来太湖水生植被演变情况.结果表明,1960年以来,共有23种水生植物从太湖消失,其中1981、1997和2014年分别消失7、4和12种.从分布区面积来看,1960年以来太湖水生植被总体呈北部湖区水生植被消失,东北部、东部及南部湖区水生植被分布区面积持续扩张的态势,1981年全湖水生植被分布区面积占8%,到2014年已经有33.82%的水面有水生植被分布.从生物量组成来看,太湖水生植被先升后降,从1960年的10×10⁴ t,持续上升到1988年的44.72×10⁴ t,1997年下降到36×10⁴ t,2014年进一步下降到29.09×10⁴ t.但挺水植被以外的水生植被,尤其是浮叶植被的生物量一直保持上升态势.总生物量的下降与东太湖挺水植被大面积消失有关,到2014年全湖挺水植被生物量比重仅占5.15%,东太湖沼泽化问题已不复存在.从群落组成变化情况来看,苦草（Vallisneria natans）群落分布区面积锐减,马来眼子菜（Potamogeton malaianus）和荇菜（Nymphoides peltatum）分布区持续扩张.目前太湖水生植被管理面临的主要问题是北部湖区水生植被恢复和东部湖区水生植被过量生长.     

Spatio-temporal Distribution of Famine and Its Relationship with Climate,Disaster, Harvest in North China During 1736-1911

Based on records on famine kept in historical documents, 2950 famine events counted with “county time” in North China during 1736-1911 were collected, and annual famine index series in North China was reconstructed using weighted average method according to the severity of famine. Spatio-temporal distribution of famine and its relationship with climate, disaster and harvest was analyzed. The research shows that variation of temperature and precipitation has significant negative correlation with poor harvest and famine. The drought has a more significant correlation with harvest and famine than flood. In 1736-1795 when was at the peak of the Qing dynasty, the sensitivity of poor harvest and famine to drought was significantly lower than in 1796-1911 when was in decline, because effective social response to disaster could reduce the risk of poor harvest and famine. Using the kernel density estimation method, three main high risk areas of famine were indentified: Fen River Valley in south Shanxi Province, south-central He'nan Province, and the junction of Hebei, Shandong and He'nan Province. In general, there is significant corresponding relationship between the spatial distribution of drought, poor harvest and famine, however, abnormally high probability of famine in south-central He'nan Province might be related to local special socio-economic vulnerability. This study would enhance our understanding of the nature of interactions between climate change and socioeconomic system. Further research would focus on the mechanism by which famine originated in the past, and the pathway through which climatic impacts were delivered in human society.     

中国粮食总产量结构分析与丰歉评估

对中国粮食总产量的结构分析表明：①粮食作物平均单产的变化在粮食总产量的变化中约占２／３以上,起着决定性的作用;②５０年代以来,小麦,玉米产量在粮食总产量中的份额呈增加之势,而水稻所占份额相对稳定,大豆等其它作用的份额则有下降趋势;③就主要粮食作物单产而言、一季稻的产量为最高,小麦产量的增长为最快。通过分析中国粮食作物平均单产的丰歉与气象条件的关系发现;西北和东北地区的降水量,华北地区的积温与产量丰     

基于地方志的1736-1911年华北秋粮丰歉指数序列重建及其与气候变化的关系

粮食作物的收成丰歉与气候要素的关联是研究历史时期气候变化社会影响的重要切入点。利用清代地方志中的收成丰歉记录,以语义差异法对收成等级进行区分,重建了1736-1911年华北地区秋粮丰收和歉收指数序列,定量分析收成变化特征及其与同期温度和降水变化的关系,并对比以往常用的官方收成分数奏报记录,探讨地方志资料在重建历史粮食收成变化中的优势和不足。结果表明：① 地方志中的歉收记录相比丰收记录更为可靠,重建的歉收指数序列可在相当程度上描述总体收成的变化,就宏观趋势而言,19世纪歉收风险相比18世纪显著增加。② 歉收指数序列与10年、5年尺度的温度变化均呈显著负相关关系,反映气候转冷可显著提升歉收风险;在年际尺度上,歉收指数序列与降水呈显著负相关,与旱灾指数序列的相关系数则达到0.71（p < 0.001）,体现出极端旱灾对于华北粮食收成的严重威胁。③ 地方志中的收成记录虽在量化精度上不如奏报,但其歉收记录对于极端减产年份的反映更为准确,两者在实际应用中存在一定的互补性。以上结论有助于改进利用历史文献资料研究过去气候变化影响的技术手段,并深化气候变化对过去农业生产系统影响规律的科学认识。     

春玉米产量动态预报技术的改进方法探索

为及时、准确地进行玉米产量预报,为吉林省玉米产量预报业务提供参考依据,为政府调控提供科技支撑,利用吉林省19802016年春玉米产量和50个气象站逐日气温、降水量、日照时数等资料,基于相似距离和相关系数构建综合诊断指标筛选气温、降水量、日照时数等各类气象要素历史相似年,根据各类气象要素历史相似年与预报年的玉米产量丰歉气象影响指数之间的关系,建立吉林省春玉米产量动态预报模型。同时,对历史相似年的筛选方法进行改进,利用欧氏距离直接筛选综合气候历史相似年,根据气候历史相似年与预报年的玉米产量丰歉气象影响指数之间的关系,构建春玉米产量预报模型。对比改进前、后的产量预报模型的预报,结果表明:两种方法在吉林省玉米单产预报中,预报准确率均较高,普遍在85%以上。产量预报模型对20022013年的预报检验结果表明,改进方法后20022013年单产预报平均准确率提高了3.9个百分点,均方根误差降低了4个百分点,标准差降低了2。对20142016年的预报检验结果表明,改进方法的玉米产量预报结果优于传统方法的预报结果。改进方法比传统方法准确率更高,稳定性更强,应用价值更高。     

Firewood consumption amongst poor inhabitants in a semiarid tropical forest: A case study from Piura,northern Peru

Semiarid forests are disappearing on a large scale and are considered to be the most endangered ecosystems in the lowland tropics. The deforestation rate in Peru is among the highest in Latin America and the Caribbean. Poor people are often more dependent on forest resources than those who are well off. However, little is known about poor people's use of forest resources or the effect of logging in semiarid forests. The article deals with household energy use and the source of firewood (bought or collected, either locally or over some distance) in two semiarid forests in Piura, northern Peru. The most used tree species and the vulnerability of the species are also examined in order to understand deforestation. Peru has introduced regulations on the use of forest resources and the article focuses on how these regulations are locally understood. The methodology includes questionnaires, recording local household practices, and in-depth interviews with local informants and both governmental and non-governmental organizations. The daily wood consumption rates per person were measured. The findings reveal that household economy is not the only factor affecting daily firewood consumption rate, but also climate, ecology, access to firewood, and traditions are contributing factors.     

大白菜收获期的环流分析及中期预报

根据生产实际，规定了大白菜受冻害的气象条件，利用５００ｈＰａ候平均高度资料，分析大白菜产生冻害的同期环流和前期环流形势，找出关键区指标，建立了１１月第３候，４候大白菜有无冻害的预报方程。