Bayesian estimation of seismic hazard for two sites in Switzerland

Seismic hazard analysis is based on data and models, which both are imprecise and uncertain. Especially the interpretation of historical information into earthquake parameters, e.g. earthquake size and location, yields ambiguous and imprecise data. Models based on probability distributions have been developed in order to quantify and represent these uncertainties. Nevertheless, the majority of the procedures applied in seismic hazard assessment do not take into account these uncertainties, nor do they show the variance of the results. Therefore, a procedure based on Bayesian statistics was developed to estimate return periods for different ground motion intensities (MSK scale).Bayesian techniques provide a mathematical model to estimate the distribution of random variables in presence of uncertainties. The developed method estimates the probability distribution of the number of occurrences in a Poisson process described by the parameter . The input data are the historical occurrences of intensities for a particular site, represented by a discrete probability distribution for each earthquake. The calculation of these historical occurrences requires a careful preparation of all input parameters, i.e. a modelling of their uncertainties. The obtained results show that the variance of the recurrence rate is smaller in regions with higher seismic activity than in less active regions. It can also be demonstrated that long return periods cannot be estimated with confidence, because the time period of observation is too short. This indicates that the long return periods obtained by seismic source methods only reflects the delineated seismic sources and the chosen earthquake size distribution law.     

关于海平面上升及其环境效应

沿海地区地质环境复杂。由于国民经济的迅速发展,人类活动日益增多,对地质环境进一步造成严重的不利影响。特别是“温室效应”引发的海平面上升,使各种地质灾害更加激化。文章详细探讨了海平面上升的影响因素,理论海平面与相对海平面升降幅度的评估,以及海平面上升所造成的地质环境效应与相应的防治对策,特别强调控制沿海城市地面沉降,以减轻海平面相对上升造成的危害,具有特殊而重要的意义。     

Oil and gas resource assessment: The linkage between geological analysis and discovery process model results

Two widely-used techniques to estimate the volume of remaining oil and gas resources are discovery process modeling and geologic assessment. Both were used in a recent national assessment of oil and gas resources of the United States. Parallel estimates were obtained for 27 provinces. Geological-based estimates can typically see into areas not available to discovery process models (that is areas with little or no exploration history) and thus, on average, yield higher estimates. However, a linear relation does exist between the mean estimates obtained from these two methods. In addition, other variables were found in a multiple regression model that explained much of the difference. Thus, it is possible to perform discovery process modeling and adjust the estimates to yield results that might be expected from geological-based assessments.     

Seismic hazard of Egypt

Earthquake hazard parameters such as maximum expected magnitude,M _max, annual activity rate,, andb value of the Gutenberg-Richter relation have been evaluated for two regions of Egypt. The applied maximum likelihood method permits the combination of both historical and instrumental data. The catalogue used covers earthquakes with magnitude 3 from the time interval 320–1987. The uncertainties in magnitude estimates and threshold of completeness were taken into account. The hazard parameter determination is performed for two study areas. The first area, Gulf of Suez, has higher seismicity level than the second, all other active zones in Egypt.b-values of 1.2 ± 0.1 and 1.0 ± 0.1 are obtained for the two areas, respectively. The number of annually expected earthquakes with magnitude 3 is much larger in the Gulf of Suez, 39 ± 2 than in the other areas, 6.1 ± 0.5. The maximum expected magnitude is calculated to be 6.5 ± 0.4 for a time span of 209 years for the Gulf of Suez and 6.1 ± 0.3 for a time span of 1667 years for the remaining active areas in Egypt. Respective periods of 10 and 20 years were reported for earthquakes of magnitude 5.0 for the two subareas.     

Probabilistic seismic hazard evaluation in underground mines

Stress concentrations produced by rock deformation due to extraction in underground mines induce seismicity that can take the shape of violent and quite dangerous rockbursts.The hazard evaluation presented in this paper is based on a Bayesian probabilistic synthesis of information determined from mining situations during excavation, with previous and present data from microseismicity and seismoacustics.The method proposed in this study is an example of time-dependent on-line seismic hazard evaluation. All results presented were obtained retrospectiely for different underground coal mines in Poland and Czechoslovakia.On leave from Institute of Geophysics, Polish Academy of Sciences 01-452 Warszawa, ul. Ksiecia Janusza 64, Poland.     

山东省日照市蓝色经济区工程建设适宜性评价

本文以山东省日照市蓝色经济区为研究区, 通过野外地质调查和室内综合分析, 选取场地稳定性、工程地质条件、地下水条件, 地形排水条件、地质灾害及其他因素6个一级评价因子, 构造活动、场地土类型、建筑场地类别等13个二级评价因子, 利用专家-层次分析定权法进行区内工程建设适宜性评价, 得到了相应工程建设评价分区图。评价结果表明, 日照市场地工程建设适宜性总体较好, 大部分地区适宜进行高层建筑工程建设, 占84.50%; 地下空间开发利用条件优越, 全区多数地区属于城市地下空间建设适宜区, 适宜性差及不适宜区主要分布在付疃河两岸附近和海岸附近、大型高速公路和铁路沿线一带区域及城区; 轨道交通建设适宜性良好, 小部分不适宜区主要集中在付疃河下游夹仓和小古镇一带及其沿海地区。评价结果可有效地服务于该地区规划布局、建设发展和工程选址, 具有重要的理论和实践指导意义。     

河北省唐山地区丰台—野鸡坨断裂第四纪活动性——来自14C和磁性地层年代学的证据

丰台—野鸡坨断裂为唐山地区主要断裂之一，西侧为鸦鸿桥凹陷，东侧为唐山凸起，断裂两侧第四系厚度之差巨大。本文依据该断层两侧钻孔对其第四纪以来活动性进行初步的探讨。通过对丰台—野鸡坨断裂上下两盘PZK14和PZK20孔磁性地层学研究，并结合钻孔岩石地层，及浅部光释光和¹⁴C测年结果，建立第四纪地层格架。结果表明：两孔底部“泥包砾”为新近纪沉积；PZK14孔下更新统底界埋深为387 m，中更新统底界埋深为114 m，上更新统底界埋深为71 m，全新统底界埋深为6 m；PZK20孔下更新统底界埋深为155 m，中更新统底界埋深为73 m，上更新统底界为36 m，无全新世地层。丰台—野鸡坨断裂活动在早更新世时表现为逐渐增强的特点，活动速率由早期的5.4 cm/ka增加到13.9 cm/ka。中更新世断裂活动基本处于停滞状态，活动速率为1.0 cm/ka。晚更新世以后，断裂重新活动，且更加剧烈，活动速率达到了54.5 cm/ka。     

雄安新区地热地质模型探究：来自地球物理的证据

雄安新区内地热资源丰富，区内有牛驼镇地热田、容城地热田和高阳地热田，地热资源开发利用较早，但是对其深部热源机制仍未形成统一观点。为了研究雄安新区内地热田深部热源机制，在新区及外围进行了深反射地震和长周期大地电磁探测，对取得的同剖面的深反射地震和大地电磁数据进行处理和综合解释，探明了研究区从地表至莫霍面范围内地质构造和电性结构。下地壳结构在深反射地震剖面与大地电磁剖面上有很好的对应关系。电阻率低值区对应着在深反射地震剖面上存在一系列反射同相轴，且同相轴可以延续到莫霍面，电阻率高值区对应着在深反射地震剖面上无明显连续反射同相轴，尤其是在莫霍面之上呈现地震反射近似"空白区"。结合区域地热资料构建了研究区深部地热地质模型，对新区内深部地热机制进行了解释。该模型为"二元"生热模型，其热源包含两个部分，深部地幔热源和地壳放射性元素衰变生热。放射性元素衰变生热占地表热流的接近30%，而幔源热流在地表热流中的占比可达约70%。在牛驼镇下方，莫霍面以上，由于地幔热物质上涌造成下地壳上隆，幔源岩浆底侵作用于下地壳形成了局部热异常，该热异常具有低速高导的地球物理特征，认为是牛驼镇地热田和容城地热田的深部热源；以区域断裂为热通道，大地热流由深部向上传导、扩散到牛驼镇凸起和容城凸起顶部，对碳酸盐岩储水层进行加热，形成地热储层；上覆新近系沉积地层是良好的热盖层。     

Environmental geology problems in the Tyrrhenian coastal area of Santa Marinella, province of Rome, central Italy

 The Tyrrhenian resort of S. Marinella (central Italy) is subjected to significant anthropogenic pressures during the summer vacation period, a common situation all along the Italian coast. Located 65 km NW of Rome on the southern slopes of the Tolfa Mountains, S. Marinella is built on a gently sloping, E–W trending belt which is cut by 14 N–S oriented ephemeral streams that discharge into the Tyrrhenian Sea. The low to medium permeability turbiditic sandstones which outcrop along this belt belong to the Late Cretaceous Pietraforte unit. Three environmental problems are addressed in this study. The first problem is related to the high water supply demand during the summer months which has forced local residents to dig a large number of wells. Extensive pumping from these wells has caused salt-water intrusion into the Pietraforte, thus compromising the domestic use of the groundwater. The second problem consists of the illegal dumping of urban solid waste, material that represents a hazard during significant rain events as well as a possible cause of groundwater contamination. The final issue addressed concerns the flooding potential of the 14 ephemeral streams that cross the inhabited area of S. Marinella, a risk which is highlighted by the disastrous flood which occurred on 2 October 1981 and during the period of the Roman Emperor Settimio Severo (205 A.D.). Some suggestions are proposed to mitigate and contain the effects of these problems. Received: 7 November 1995 / Accepted: 5 December 1996     

Probabilistic seismic hazard zonation of Syria

Earthquake hazard maps for Syria are presented in this paper. The Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA) and the Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) on bedrock, both with 90% probability of not being exceeded during a life time of 50, 100 and 200 years, respectively are developed. The probabilistic PGA and MMI values are evaluated assuming linear sources (faults) as potential sources of future earthquakes. A new attenuation relationship for this region is developed. Ten distinctive faults of potential earthquakes are identified in and around Syria. The pertinent parameters of each fault, such as theb-parameter in the Gutenberg-Richter formula, the annual rate ₄ and the upper bound magnitudem ₁ are determined from two sets of seismic data: the historical earthquakes and the instrumentally recorded earthquake data (AD 1900–1992). The seismic hazard maps developed are intended for preliminary analysis of new designs and seismic check of existing civil engineering structures.